Now that the HFPA has finished its star-whoring for the year, it's time to take a quick look at who's gaining and losing momentum as we move towards the SAG's, the BAFTA's, and finally, the Oscars themselves. We've still got a month and a half left of this awards craziness, which is actually a good thing for me, since I still need to see Crazy Heart, A Prophet (not until March 5th!! AGH!), The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, The Last Station, The Lovely Bones, and maybe even The Blind Side if it's still in theaters just so I can see for myself whether Sandra Bullock deserves all of this awards lovin'.
Best Motion Picture - Drama
The Hurt Locker (2008)
Inglourious Basterds (2009)
Up in the Air (2009/I)
I can't say I'm pleased about this, but it's not unexpected. Box office was obviously king this year, and since the Globes don't hand out trophies for technical aspects, the best way for them to honor James Cameron's technologically superior extravaganza was in directing and picture. That said, the Academy, though slowly becoming more accepting of sci-fi/fantasy films, could be quite the opposite; of the past 5 Golden Globe Best Picture Drama winners, only ONE has gone on to take the top prize (Slumdog Millionaire).
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
The Hangover (2009)
(500) Days of Summer (2009)
It's Complicated (2009)
Julie & Julia (2009)
One of the most shocking wins of Sunday night, don't expect this to translate into major awards love when the Oscar nominations are announced in early February. The film hasn't been a major presence throughout Awards Season aside from the HFPA, who saw its massive box office/general popularity and pounced. (500) Days of Summer should do decently with the Academy, but I'm still on the fence as to whether this delightful indie romantic comedy can make it in to the BIG 10. Julie and Julia has Streep going for it, and could be a surprise in some of the artistic categories, while It's Complicated has a slim chance at a screenplay nod and nothing more. Though I'm counting it out of the Best Picture race, Nine SHOULD do well in the artistic/tech categories, and hopefully score a supporting actress nomination for Marion Cotillard (which is where she belongs, Mr. Weinstein). Who knows, maybe AMPAS will even nominate the better song from Nine, "Take it All"; that would make my day, especially if Cotillard performs it at the ceremony.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Bridges, who hasn't quite dominated the critics awards like many figured (neither has Firth, for that matter) is suddenly picking up steam, with back-to-back wins from the Broadcast Critics Association and the HFPA, while Clooney seems to be fading, as does Freeman. There's still Jeremy Renner, who if I remember correctly, might actually have the greatest number of critics awards so far, despite being snubbed by the HFPA (he is nominated at the SAG's, however). Oh, and Tobey Maguire? Sorry bud, it ain't happening. At least you still have the Spiderman franchi-ooooooooooohhhhhh that's awkward....
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
I remember those days three months ago when the thought of Sandra Bullock even being a viable contender made me laugh. I now feel really weird. The surprise hit The Blind Side is pushing Bullock closer than ever to an Oscar, and at this point, she's jumped to the lead of the Best Actress race, while former contenders Emily Blunt and Helen Mirren are starting to dwindle. Newcomers Mulligan and Sidibe, both excellent, should be thankful for the critics awards they've picked up, because unless the AMPAS voting body decides to be fickle, one of America's biggest starts may finally take home a golden boy after her best box-office year ever.
"You threaten my Oscar chances, you threaten me."
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
This is the one category where I don't think any of the nominees will make it to the Oscars as nominees. Downey Jr. and Day-Lewis' films should do well in art/tech categories, but don't expect them to get much else. Damon has a better chance at getting in for Invictus (which I ought to see but reeeeally don't want to). I'd love for Levitt or Stuhlbarg to get in, but even the former, who has a better shot, doesn't seem so likely now.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
This is where the Best Actress race becomes interesting. Roberts and Complicated Streep (as opposed to the victorious "T-Bone" Streep) have no chance, and Bullock will get in for her dramatic role. Cotillard poses no threat since she'll either be in supporting or not be nominated at all (sad). Even if she did miraculously get nominated in lead, Cotillard's chances would be non-existant. As of now, Best Actress will go to Bullock (her first), Streep (her third), or one of the two young newcomers (Mulligan and Sidibe).
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Stanley Tucci, no longer the threat to Waltz that he was a month ago, might not even end up a nominee. The same fate could befall Plummer, despite being a respected veteran with zero prior noms. Damon and Harrelson aren't quite sure bets, but it doesn't really matter because Waltz will take this without a doubt.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Had Mo'nique lost this, I wouldn't be as sure, but now that she has the Globe, her longheld front-runner status (a la Jennifer Hudson in 2006) should carry her to the Oscar podium. If she takes the SAG award this Saturday, she'll be all but a lock, with only Kendrick as her real threat (Julianne Moore is bound to win an Oscar someday, but it won't be for this).
Best Director - Motion Picture
I don't want it to happen, but I think it could, simply because of the amount of time Cameron put into developing new technology just to get this film get made. Then again, there are the tech categories, along with Kathryn Bigelow, AMPAS's first chance to reward a woman director since Sofia Coppola in 2003, or Quentin Tarantino, who's never won for directing, or Jason Reitman, who is has a perfect track record with critics, and was nominated for Juno when few expected it.
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
I'm a little surprised the award didn't go to Tarantino, but I'm not complaining either. Seeing as Reitman/Turner and Tarantino won't have to compete at the Oscars, there's a solid chance that both will take home the gold. And despite its harrowing realism and intensity, very few seem to want to honor The Hurt Locker for writing. There's also contenders like A Serious Man and (500) Days of Summer to factor into the race as well.
Best Original Song - Motion Picture
Best Original Score - Motion Picture
Best Animated Film
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Television Series - Drama
"Mad Men" (2007)
Best Television Series - Musical or Comedy
Best Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Grey Gardens (2009) (TV)