Sunday, January 17, 2010

Predictions for the 67th Annual Golden Globe Awards: Film and TV

Well, it's mid-January, and that can only mean one thing: it's Golden Globes time!!! While the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has come under scrutiny before (the HFPA are often labeled as "star whores") for their tendency to nominate the films with the biggest stars and campaigns, their awards are still a key factor in what this is all leading up to: The Academy Awards on March 7th. Personally, I've always liked the Globes for their somewhat relaxed manner (stars are at tables and can eat and drink during the ceremony), and the division of Lead Actor, Actress, and Best Picture into Drama and Musical or Comedy ensures that a wider variety of films and actors get a chance to shine, even if they go home empty handed (and considering that comedic and/or musical performances are too often snubbed by the Academy, it's nice for their to be a high-profile event where they're guaranteed some level of recognition). Add to the mix Ricky Gervais as the show's first official host in years, and we've got what could be the most entertaining Globes ceremony in years. So, with Hollywood's first BIG night (sorry Kristen Chenoweth, but it'll never be the Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards) of awards mania finally upon us, it's time to take a look at the nominees, and who will go home with a trophy (along with who should). If you need to refresh your memory as to who/what is nominated, click HERE.

Best Picture: Drama
Will Win: Avatar or Up in the Air

Should Win: The Hurt LockerThe HFPA will probably find the hugely popular Avatar too hard to ignore, though don't be surprised if they go for Up in the Air due to its relevant subject matter, and the presence of George Clooney. One factor Up in the Air has going for it: three nominated actors. Avatar has zero. There's a tiny chance The Hurt Locker could win, but it isn't likely, as much as the film deserves it. Here's hoping Bigelow can at least pull a win for Best Director.

Best Picture: Musical or Comedy
Will and Should Win: (500) Days of Summer

With Nine fading as a top contender, look for the HFPA to choose the beloved (500) Days of Summer, which was an indie hit over the summer. It's Complicated is basically filler (and should have been replaced by A Serious Man or the criminally ignored In the Loop) and while Julie and Julia was well-received, it's the type of film that is deserving of a nomination, but not the win. Meanwhile the highest-grossing candidate, The Hangover, is there due to its huge box-office success and general popularity with critics and audiences; don't expect that to carry it to the win, however.

Best Actor: Drama
Will Win: Jeff Bridges -
Crazy Heart
Should Win: Colin Firth - A Single ManThough the HFPA will hate to NOT give it to Clooney, Bridges has earned equal-or-better reviews, and is also a four-time Oscar loser. Unfortunately I haven't seen Crazy Heart, so I can't comment on whether Bridges deserves it or not, which means I'll be hoping for Colin Firth to win for his career-best performance in A Single Man. Firth, who's never been nominated for a Globe or an Oscar, could take this one as a "sorry we never recognized you until now" type win, however.

Best Actress: Drama
Will Win: Sandra Bullock -
The Blind Side
Should Win: Carey Mulligan - An EducationAmerica's sweetheart is slowly becoming the front-runner not only for the Globe but for the Oscar too. With a sensational box-office year behind her (minus All About Steve, that is) and TWO nominations, one of them for what many are calling her best performance ever, don't be surprised if the hugely popular star finally has her Globe moment tonight and takes one home. But please HFPA, let's not repeat last year and have the "long overdue star" take home both of the trophies she's up for.

Best Actor: Musical or Comedy
Will and Should Win: Joseph Gordon-Levitt -
(500) Days of SummerMany have pegged Matt Damon for this award (he's also a dual-nominee this year), but I have to say that I'm just not "feeling it". The film hasn't gone very far in other critics awards, and it's hardly a GREAT performance (Damon is capable of so much better). If my suspicions are right, expect to see Joseph Gordon-Levitt take the Globe for the performance that finally broke him out of the obscure-indie-drama mold and put him at center stage in a wonderful romantic comedy.

Best Actress: Musical or Comedy
Will Win: Meryl Streep - Julie and Julia
Should Win: Marion Cotillard - NineThis one is a no-brainer, although there is the slight chance that Streep being nominated twice in the same category could cost her the win. If it does, I'd be thrilled if the award went to Cotillard, who was the heart and soul of Rob Marshall's dazzling-yet-flawed musical. Even though I wholly consider Cotillard's role in the film to be supporting, I'd still like to see her take home something major instead of Mo'nique or Anna Kendrick, since she's on the same level as those two. And if she wins, then maybe her chances at getting nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars will jump. Oh, and on a side note, why on earth was Julia Roberts nominated? Are HFPA members that desperate to draw stars ?

Best Supporting Actor
Will and Should Win: Christoph Waltz -
Inglourious BasterdsLike Javier Bardem and Heath Ledger before him, this year's supporting actor villain extraordinaire is the front-runner by a wide mile, and deservedly so. The maniacal, calculating Hans Landa is sure to go down as one of the great villains and one of Tarantino's most memorable characters, which is saying a lot. Harrelson, Tucci, or Plummer have slight chances due to veteran status, but at this point it seems unlikely. For Waltz, the remainder of Awards Season should be a smooth ride up to the Oscar podium; that's a BINGO!

PS: Hey, HFPA, I'm still mad at you for not nominating Peter Capaldi even though I knew you never would.

Best Supporting Actress
Will and Should Win: Mo'nique OR Anna Kendrick -
Precious/Up in the AirI'm really torn on what my favorite supporting actress performance of 09 was. Along with the elsewhere-nominated Cotillard, there's also Mo'nique's monstrous mother and Kendrick's young upstart. I used to be firmly on the Mo'nique train, but the more I think about Kendrick's performance, the more I like it, and the more difficult it becomes for me to decide on a favorite. I'd tip the scale slightly in favor of Mo'nique since she's won almost everything leading up to this point, but the HFPA decide this is the category where they'll reward a young up-and-comer in a year of strong performances from younger actresses. And as much as I like Penelope Cruz and Julianne Moore, their performances weren't quite award worthy (Cruz should have been nominated in this same category for Broken Embraces). The woman of interest is Kendrick's Up in the Air co-star Vera Farmiga, who could take some of her votes, and pave the way for an easy victory for Mo'nique.

Best Director
Will Win: James Cameron or Jason Reitman -
Avatar/Up in the Air
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt LockerCameron or Reitman will likely win for the same reasons their films will likely take Best Picture (Drama). If it has to be one of these two I'd rather it be Reitman, who showed such tremendous growth as a director in only his third film. Cameron could ride in on the massive box office of his film and the film's status as a landmark in special effects technology, but I'd rather see both men passed over in favor of Bigelow, whose film was so riveting under her guidance. That said, if I had to choose, I'd rather see Bigelow lose the Globe and win the Oscar, instead of the other way around.

Best Screenplay

Will Win: Quentin Tarantino -
Inglourious Basterds
Should Win: Anyone except for Nancy Meyers (It's Complicated)

Tarantino has the return-to-form angle working for him, along with some of his best writing to date (the entire final chapter is fantastic). Mark Boal or Reitman/Turner could take it for the war movie or the economy-based drama as well. I love the nomination for District 9, adapted from a 7 minute short film into a fantastic feature length film. The only nominee that seems out of place is It's Complicated; ah, yet another spot that should have been filled by In the Loop.

Best Original Song Will and Should Win: "The Weary Kind" - Crazy Heart

This is a pretty decent lineup with the exception of "I See You" (aka: Leona Lewis wants to be Celine Dion), although I wish Nine had been nominated for "Take it All" instead. The song "The Weary Kind" is a gentle, touching song much in the way "The Wrestler" by Bruce Springsteen was last year.

Best Original Score
Will Win: Michael Giacchino -
Should Win: Abel Korzeniowski - A Single ManGiacchino's quite the up-and-coming composer, and Pixar films have a good track record with landing score nominations (though they rarely if ever win). I'd much rather see Abel Korzeniowski's painfully gorgeous work from A Single Man take home the trophy, however. A lot of good scores got snubbed (The Road, Moon, Broken Embraces) this year, and it would make me so happy to see this gorgeous work get rewarded. However, I'd take Up winning as long as The Informant's score is kept as far away from the award as possible.

Best Animated Film
Will and Should Win:
UpAfter being disappointed by Fantastic Mr. Fox and Coraline, I hope the award goes to Up, which proved to me that even when not at their very best, Pixar is still miles ahead of everyone else when it comes to animated films.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win:
Broken Embraces (Spain)
Should Win: The White Ribbon (Germany)Don't get me wrong, I love both films, but I have a sneaking feeling that the HFPA like Pedro Almodovar a lot more than Michael Haneke. Remember, this is the same organization that passed over Pan's Labyrinth and The Lives of Others just so they could give the award to Clint Eastwood's Letter's From Iwo Jima.

And now it's time for the TV categories!!

Best Series: Drama
Will Win: Mad Men
Should Win: DexterI love Mad Men, but my new small-screen obsession is Showtime's Dexter, which is so much more brilliant than I ever could have predicted. I don't have Showtime, so I've only seen the first three seasons, and not the currently-nominated fourth, but if it's as good as people have said, then it's hard for me not to root for it.

Best Series: Musical/Comedy
Will Win: Glee

Should Win: Modern Family or GleeI'm still a devoted 30Rock fan, and that show can make me laugh harder than anything else on TV, but ABC's Modern Family has had such a delightful (and consistent) debut season that it's hard to ignore. Then there's Fox's Glee, which has become a surprise hit and morphed into a show with some surprising staying power. The show deserves at least a minor trophy for having so many people (mainly Lea Michele) sing so damn well every week (Michele's rendition of "Don't Rain on My Parade" is a show-stopper).

Best Actor: Musical/Comedy
Will and Should Win: Alec Baldwin - 30RockBaldwin is still as strong as ever even as 30Rock continues forward with a "good-but-not-great" season. Expect him to take it home yet again.

Best Actress: Musical/Comedy
Will Win: Toni Collete - United States of Tara

Should Win: Tina Fey or Lea Michele - 30Rock/GleeCollete, fresh off of her Emmy win, is the front-runner for the award, though I'd love to see it go to Fey, for pushing herself to new comedic heights yet again, or Michele for singing so damn well week after week. Michele's character isn't supposed to be entirely likable, but it's hard not to root for her every time she belts out a song.

Best Actor: Drama
Will Win: Jon Hamm - Mad Men

Should Win: Michael C. Hall - DexterHamm has a good track record with the HFPA, and in a season that saw Don Draper tackle even more problems at work and at home, they won't want to pass him up. Pity, because Hall is so damn good at making me care for a serial killer episode after episode.

Best Actress: Drama
Will Win: Glenn Close - Damages

Should Win: N/A

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Neil Patrick Harris - How I Met Your Mother

Should Win: John Lithgow - DexterPerennial favorite Harris apparently hasn't outstayed his awards welcome, which is a shame because Lithgow is the one who's earned it. Even the clips of him I saw gave me goose-bumps. Apparently seeing the performance in its entirety over the whole 12 episodes was to see a masterclass in acting.

Best Supporting Actress
Will and Should Win: Jane Lynch - Glee
Week after week, Lynch delivers some of the best lines as a tyrannical cheer-leading coach bent on destroying McKinley High School's glee club, and hopefully the actress, who has been in dozens of films in killer bit-parts and supporting roles, will finally take home a much deserved statue. Hell, she deserved it for that episode where she read from her diary alone.

Who will take home the Globe and who will leave empty? We only have a few hours to wait and see. I'm going to try something new and "liveblog" the ceremony tonight, meaning that I'll be updating a single post with thoughts on the show, the winners, and maybe the fashion (though I can rarely go further than "so and so looks good/bad" without getting a headache) as we move one step closer to the end of Awards Season 09-10.

No comments: