2013 SAG Award Predictions

The only one of the major guild awards that has a televised ceremony, the SAGs are noteworthy more for how they indicate potential acting winners. Though there have been plenty of divergent outcomes (Viola Davis won the SAG trophy last time, only to lose the Oscar to Meryl Streep), SAG's awards still play an important role in the race to Oscar night. What makes this year so intriguing, however, is that there are a number of nominees who failed to make the Oscar list (Marion Cotillard, John Hawkes), and Oscar nominees who aren't present here (Christoph Waltz). On a broader level, the 2012-2013 awards season has been one of the most unpredictable in years, and is a logical step away from predictable results after last awards season. Where the past few years have been settled in the guilds (The King's Speech triumphed at the guilds and the Oscars, despite The Social Network dominating critics awards), this year the guilds could cement a potential frontrunner in Argo, or make the remaining weeks of the season even less certain than before. Below is my stab at making predictions for tonight's ceremony:

For a refresher on the nominees, click HERE.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
Front Runner: Silver Linings Playbook
Alternates: Les Miserables, Argo

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Front Runner: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Alternates: Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables, Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Front Runner: Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Alternates: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Front Runner: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Alternates: Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook


Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
Front Runner: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Alternates: Nope.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series:
Front Runner: Modern Family
Alternates: Girls, 30Rock


Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series:
Front Runner: Homeland
Alternates: Breaking Bad


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series:
Front Runner: Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
Alternates: Alec Baldwin - 30Rock


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series:
Front Runner: Damien Lewis - Homeland
Alternates: Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series:
Front Runner: Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation
Alternates: Tina Fey - 30Rock


Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series:
Front Runner: Claire Danes - Homeland
Alternates: Nope.


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a TV Movie or Mini-Series:
Front Runner: Kevin Costner - Hatfields and McCoys
Alternates: Woody Harrelson - Game Change


Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a TV Movie or Mini-Series:
Front Runner: Julianne Moore - Game Change
Alternates: Nope.

State of the Race: The Guild Awards

With last night's SAG awards out of the way, the Oscar race is finally becoming a little clearer. After months and months of uncertainty, clear frontrunners are emerging, and the race is really taking shape. That said, there's still room for a few surprises on Oscar night, which is always welcome. Which is even more impressive now that Hollywood's three big guilds have handed out their awards for 2011. No matter how many critics prizes a film takes, in the end its industry support that matters. Look no further than The Social Network/The King's Speech for a classic example of a critical favorite eventually trumped by a film that hit it off big time with the industry. And in a year where so much is uncertain, we can at least try to speculate where AMPAS' votes will go, though unlike last year nothing is quite set in stone.

Best Picture

Frontrunner: The Artist

The Help may have picked up the SAG's top prize, but that's for ensemble, not picture (though SAG sometimes votes as if it is). Both the PGA and the DGA have gone to The Artist, which has emerged from the field of 9 contenders as the one with the best chance. The Descendants, Hugo, The Help, and even The Tree of Life all have their ardent supporters, but ultimately, this is The Artist's to lose.

Best Director

Frontrunner: Michel Hazanvicius - The Artist

The film certainly stands out among the crowd as a modern-day silent, and seeing as AMPAS generally tends to lump picture and director together, expect Hazanvicius to be swept along with his film.

Best Actor

Frontrunner: George Clooney - The Descendants

Though his loss last night to Dujardin was a blow to his momentum, Clooney remains the logical pick for the win, even though Dujardin is rapidly closing in on his lead. Clearly the actors love him, and the industry seems to love The Artist, so Dujardin could ultimately prove victorious. At the moment, however, Clooney's golden boy status could still be enough to keep him in first place.

Best Actress

Frontrunner: Viola Davis - The Help

Had Meryl Streep won the SAG award last night, I would have been ready to declare her third Oscar win all sewn up. But SAG went with Davis, whose film is clearly much more popular. Streep may have claimed the Globe, but Davis has the more popular film and the SAG momentum on her side.

Best Supporting Actor

Frontrunner: Christopher Plummer - Beginners

Probably the acting race's only lock, and he's only emerged recently. With back-to-back wins from the Globes and SAG, and the complete drop-out of Albert Brooks' campaign, Plummer is poised for an easy (though still very deserved) victory.

Best Supporting Actress

Frontrunner: Octavia Spencer - The Help

Though she's not quite the lock that Plummer is, she's pretty damn close. There's still room for co-star Jessica Chastain to sneak in and win here, but ultimately her nomination will prove to be her reward for her break-out year. Not a sure thing, but at the end of the day, this is Spencer's to lose.

That's all for now. More to come after the BAFTA awards next month, and then a final round of predictions just before Oscar night. We're almost at the end!

2011 SAG Nominees

I've more or less avoided commenting on the 2011-12 Awards Season so far, due to a number of factors. However, with this morning's unveiling of the Screen Actors Guild nominees and tomorrow's Golden Globe nominee announcement, I figured it was time to put in my 2 cents on the state of the race so far.

For a full list of the SAG nominees, click HERE.

Film:

Starting with Best Ensemble (the closest thing SAG has to a Best Picture award, even though it really isn't, and shouldn't be voted on as such), we've got a mix of the predictable and the surprising. For all of the awards love that I'm expecting The Artist to receive over the next few months, it never seemed like an ensemble piece. Dujardin and Bejo (both nominated) seemed like the only major players in the modern-day silent film. Clearly, SAG thought differently. Other mentions, however, like The Descendants, Midnight in Paris, and The Help seem rather obvious. And then (thankfully) there's Bridesmaids, which could prove to be the awards season party-crasher in a year where (FINALLY) nothing/no one seems like a "lock" to win. Remember last year when almost every critics group gave Best Actress to Natalie Portman? Yeah, not happening this year. We finally have a really interesting awards race, and Bridesmaids' pitch-perfect female ensemble is just icing on the cake. By the time the stardust has cleared and the champagne has stopped flowing at the end of February, I'm sure that more tradtional, "Oscar bait" films (War Horse) will have made there mark, but if ever there was a year for things to get crazy, this is it.

Next we go to Male Actor in a Leading Role and Female Actor in a Leading Role. Though response to J. Edgar has been pretty muted, I guess I shouldn't be that surprised that DiCaprio made it in here. SAG does love to reward actors in Eastwood films (part of me thought they might toss a nod to Judi Dench, who was, admittedly, the best thing about J. Edgar). At the same time, you'd think that a branch full of actors might have noticed the "we did it in one take!" nature of DiCaprio's performance (it shows). Then there's Demian Bichir for A Better Life, and I have to confess, I have no idea where this came from. If there was going to be a "surprise" here, I thought it would be Shame's Michael Fassbender or even Take Shelter's Michael Shannon (both wrongfully snubbed). "But where the hell are Fassbender and Shannon!?" - George Clooney, demanding answers.

Other than DiCaprio and Bichir, though, the male lineup is filled out by our three presumed front-runners: Dujardin, George Clooney (The Descendants), and Brad Pitt (Moneyball). I haven't been able to see The Artist, but between Clooney and Pitt, I hope this one goes to the former. As much as I like Pitt as an actor, he keeps getting recognized for his weaker performances (though Moneyball is a much better performance than Benjamin Button). And as for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy's Gary Oldman, well, better luck next time. "We're not so very different, you and I. We're both searching for a GODDAMN OSCAR!!!"

Much more interesting, however, is how the leading ladies are shaping up. It's an unusually contentious year, with veterans (Streep, Close) and newcomers (Elizabeth Olsen, snubbed) fighting it out for five spots. Michelle Williams, who has picked up two critics awards thus far, is starting to become more of a threat than I thought she would be. Then there's Tilda Swinton, who finally seems to be on her way to a second Oscar nomination. "Wait...I actually got in? Wha..."

The film may have barely any exposure (as of now, it's not scheduled to open anywhere in the US outside of New York and L.A., which seems ridiculous), but that doesn't have an bearing on awards bodies. With back-to-back snubs (09's Julia and 10's I am Love), Swinton's passionate fan base has finally expanded, and the build-up could be enough to push her through to second Oscar nomination (about time). Then there's the above-mentioned Olsen, along with Charlize Theron, who still stand as potential threats.

As far as the supporting categories go, the women seem to be taking shape, while the men seems as all-over-the-place as ever. Berenice Bejo, previously thought to be gone, has finally come back. More predictable are The Help's Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain (at which point I'll assume that this is the performance she'll be primarily rewarded for in the future). "White people, man. White people..." - Octavia Spencer.

Melissa McCarthy from Bridesmaids is a nice surprise, and it's good to see that the handful of critics awards she's picked up haven't been for nothing. All the same, it's too bad that co-star Kristen Wiig has been so thoroughly ignored. Hopefully the Globes will change that tomorrow morning. Finally, there's Janet McTeer from Albert Nobbs, who's been earning some of the film's strongest reviews. On the other hand, this looks like the end of the road for Coriolanus' Vanessa Redgrave.

As for the men, the category has some mild front-runners, but the other slots have always seemed like question marks. Beginners' Christopher Plummer could very well take this, although SAG might fall in love with Branagh's interpretation of Laurence Olivier. Nick Nolte (Warrior) was once brought up as a possibility, but the film's failure at the box office seemed to be the end of him until now. As far as Jonah Hill and Armie Hammer are concerned, though, they probably ought to be happy that they made it in here at all.

TV:

I won't cover this as extensively, but there's a few things that need to be said. I've come to expect Community being snubbed, but where on earth is Parks and Recreation in the comedy categories? "This is LITERALLY the most disappointing snub of the year."

That cast should be filling out any number of slots, especially Amy Poehler, Rob Lowe, Nick Offerman, and Adam Scott. Jumping over to drama, an even bigger issue: how on earth did SAG pass up Showtime's outstanding Homeland, far and away the best new show of the year? At the very least, you'd think they could throw Claire Danes and Damian Lewis nominations (the former of whom was absolutely incredible in the season's penultimate episode). Unless the show was (for whatever reason) ineligible, this borders on inexcusable, especially considering the fact that Dexter managed to make it in. Yes, season 6 is a step up from whatever the hell season 5 was, but there's a limit. Claire Danes after seeing that Dexter made it in over Homeland.

Another bone to pick with SAG, though, comes down to the structure of the awards: why on earth do the TV awards not have separate categories for lead and supporting roles? There are so many good performances on TV right now, and the current roster of categories leaves the categories prone to defaulting to lead performances (except in the comedy categories). Oh well, at the very least Breaking Bad and Game of Thrones are nominated, although Aaron Paul and Peter Dinklage have fallen victim to the limited acting categories. At least they didn't do something crazy like nominating Colin Hanks for Dexter. Yeesh. "Yo, Claire: u mad?" - Jessica Lange.

One nice surprise, however, is the inclusion of American Horror Story's Jessica Lange in drama. The role is clearly supporting, and the show is batshit-insane and messy as hell, but Lange is one of the most consistently compelling (and deliciously campy) aspects of that glorious train wreck (season 1, and Connie Britton is already about to give birth to the antichrist...seriously).

The SAG awards air on January 29th; here's hoping that the guild members at least make some inspired choices from their relatively uninspired choices.

SAG Winners: More "King's Speech" love

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a new front-runner, and its name is The King's Oscar Bait. In addition to scoring Best Actor in a Leading role last night, "King" took home SAG's top award, Best Ensemble Cast. And while the BEC award isn't necessarily the best indicator of what will become Oscar's top pick, the SAG triump comes on the heels of The King's Speech taking top honors at both the Producers' Guild and Directors' Guild Awards, both of which are big indicators. So even though The Social Network has been an obvious front-runner for months now, the last few weeks have shown us that for the first time in four years, the critics and the Academy may finally differ on Oscar night.

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role
Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"
Robert Duvall, "Get Low"
Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"
WINNER: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
James Franco, "127 Hours"

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a leading role
Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"
Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"
WINNER: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Hilary Swank, "Conviction"

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a supporting role
WINNER: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"
Jeremy Renner, "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"
Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a supporting role
Amy Adams, "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"
Mila Kunis, "Black Swan"
WINNER: Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"
Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"

Outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture
"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"The Kids Are All Right"
WINNER: "The King's Speech"
"The Social Network"

TELEVISION

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a drama series
WINNER: Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire"
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"
Hugh Laurie, "House M.D."

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a drama series
Glenn Close, "Damages"
Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU"
WINNER: Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a comedy series
WINNER: Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"
Steve Carell, "The Office"
Chris Colfer, "Glee"
Ed O'Neill, "Modern Family"

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a comedy series
Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"
Tina Fey, "30 Rock"
Jane Lynch, "Glee"
Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family"
WINNER: Betty White, "Hot in Cleveland"

Outstanding performance by an ensemble in a drama series
WINNER: "Boardwalk Empire"
"The Closer"
"Dexter"
"The Good Wife"
"Mad Men"

Outstanding performance by an ensemble in a comedy series
"30 Rock"
"Glee"
"Hot in Cleveland"
WINNER: "Modern Family"
"The Office"

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a television movie or miniseries
John Goodman, "You Don't Know Jack"
WINNER: Al Pacino, "You Don't Know Jack"
Dennis Quaid, "The Special Relationship"
Edgar Ramirez, "Carlos"
Patrick Stewart, "Macbeth"

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a television movie or Miniseries
WINNER: Claire Danes, "Temple Grandin"
Catherine O'Hara, "Temple Grandin"
Julia Ormond , "Temple Grandin"
Winona Ryder, "When Love Is Not Enough: The Lois Wilson Story"
Susan Sarandon, "You Don't Know Jack

"

2010 SAG Nominees + Delayed Reactions

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:

• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King's Speech
• The Social Network

I was worried that Black Swan would miss here. Everything else is pretty expected.

Outstanding Actor in a Leading Role:

• Jeff Bridges - True Grit
• Robert Duvall - Get Low
• Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
• Colin Firth - The King's Speech
• James Franco - 127 Hours

Bridges makes a comeback after the surprise sub at the Globes (along with Duvall). The real question though, is who among the three front-runners is going to take this. Eisenberg has fared better than I ever thought he would, and with Mark Zuckerberg having just been named as Time's Person of the Year, they might just swing his way over the One Man Show and the Royalty Performance.

Outstanding Actress in a Leading Role:

• Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
• Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
• Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
• Natalie Portman - Black Swan
• Hilary Swank - Conviction

Uh, hi there Hilary Swank, really didn't expect to see you here along with the other four and WAIT A MINUTE. Julianne Moore? Ms. Moore? Are you out there?...oh. Well that's awkward.

Outstanding Actor in a Supporting Role:

• Christian Bale - The Fighter
• John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
• Jeremy Renner - The Town
• Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
• Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech

Jeremy Renner just doesn't seem to want to go away. Don't get me wrong, I like the guy, but the script for The Town gave him nothing to do except talk "tough." And while we're on the subject of one-note performances, hey there, John Hawkwaes; it's nice to see that glowering scored you a nomination for a certain overrated indie. But the real surprise here is that Ruffalo got in while co-star Moore was left in the dust, especially since the reverse happened at the Globes. Not that it matters; congratulations Christian Bale/Geoffrey Rush.

Outstanding Actress in a Supporting Role:

• Amy Adams - The Fighter
• Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
• Mila Kunis - Black Swan
• Melissa Leo - The Fighter
• Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit

I don't like seeing Jacki Weaver snubbed here at all. If she doesn't have the actors' brach behind her, it could mean trouble ahead, regardless of the critics' love and the surprise Globe nom. Interesting to see Steinfeld score here (apparently it's a case of category fraud), along with Kunis. Lastly, I guess it's officially time to say "goodbye" to Dianne Wiest and Aaron Eckhart's Oscar chances. It's really a shame, especially for Mr. Eckhart (more on him and Rabbit Hole later today).

For the rest of the nominees (for TV/mini-series) go HERE.

SAG Award Winners!

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

WINNER

Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Other Nominees:

An Education (2009)

The Hurt Locker (2008)

Nine (2009)

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

Like I said in the post below, I would have been happy with any of these, seeing as this is supposed to be an ensemble cast award. Good pick, though The Hurt Locker would have made me a hair happier.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

WINNER

Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart (2009)

Other Nominees:

George Clooney for Up in the Air (2009/I)

Colin Firth for A Single Man (2009)

Morgan Freeman for Invictus (2009)

Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker (2008)

Ugh...do not want. Everyone except Freeman would have made me leap, especially Firth. Sadly, this doesn't seem to be the case. I'll just have to pray for an upset on Oscar night.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

WINNER

Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side (2009)

Other Nominees:

Helen Mirren for The Last Station (2009)

Carey Mulligan for An Education (2009)

Gabourey Sidibe for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia (2009)

Wow, didn't (entirely) see this one coming, though I knew it was between her and Streep. It's official: Sandra Bullock is now the frontrunner for Best Actress.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

WINNER

Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Other Nominees:

Matt Damon for Invictus (2009)

Woody Harrelson for The Messenger (2009/I)

Christopher Plummer for The Last Station (2009)

Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones (2009)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

WINNER

Mo'Nique for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

Other Nominees:

Penélope Cruz for Nine (2009)

Vera Farmiga for Up in the Air (2009/I)

Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air (2009/I)

Diane Kruger for Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Now one step closer. The only interesting thing in both this category and Best Supporting Actor is to see who else gets nominated.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

WINNER

"Glee" (2009)

Other Nominees:

"Curb Your Enthusiasm" (2000)

"Modern Family" (2009)

"The Office" (2005)

"30 Rock" (2006)

Not the best of the bunch, but not unexpected.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

WINNER

"Mad Men" (2007)

Other Nominees:

"The Closer" (2005)

"Dexter" (2006)

"The Good Wife" (2009)

"True Blood" (2008)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

WINNER

Alec Baldwin for "30 Rock" (2006)

Other Nominees:

Steve Carell for "The Office" (2005)

Larry David for "Curb Your Enthusiasm" (2000)

Tony Shalhoub for "Monk" (2002)

Charlie Sheen for "Two and a Half Men" (2003)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

WINNER

Tina Fey for "30 Rock" (2006)

Other Nominees:

Christina Applegate for "Samantha Who?" (2007)

Toni Collette for "United States of Tara" (2009)

Edie Falco for "Nurse Jackie" (2009)

Julia Louis-Dreyfus for "The New Adventures of Old Christine" (2006)

I'm so glad that Fey of all people broke Collete's winning streak; good for her.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

WINNER

Michael C. Hall for "Dexter" (2006)

Other Nominees:

Simon Baker for "The Mentalist" (2008)

Bryan Cranston for "Breaking Bad" (2008)

Jon Hamm for "Mad Men" (2007)

Hugh Laurie for "House M.D." (2004)

YEEEEEEEEEEEESSSS!!!

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

WINNER

Julianna Margulies for "The Good Wife" (2009)

Other Nominees:

Patricia Arquette for "Medium" (2005)

Glenn Close for "Damages" (2007)

Mariska Hargitay for "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit" (1999)

Holly Hunter for "Saving Grace" (2007)

Kyra Sedgwick for "The Closer" (2005)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

WINNER

Kevin Bacon for Taking Chance (2009) (TV)

Other Nominees:

Cuba Gooding Jr. for Gifted Hands: The Ben Carson Story (2009) (TV)

Jeremy Irons for Georgia O'Keeffe (2009) (TV)

Kevin Kline for "Great Performances: Cyrano de Bergerac (#37.8)" (2008)

Tom Wilkinson for A Number (2008) (TV)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

WINNER

Drew Barrymore for Grey Gardens (2009) (TV)

Other Nominees:

Joan Allen for Georgia O'Keeffe (2009) (TV)

Ruby Dee for America (2009) (TV)

Jessica Lange for Grey Gardens (2009) (TV)

Sigourney Weaver for Prayers for Bobby (2009) (TV)

SAG Predictions

Tonight are the SAGs, and we all know what that means: the actors are coming!! I actually love the SAGs because I think it's fun to see who ONLY the actors think should win. Actually that's the fun of all of the guild awards. So, who will and should take home an Actor tonight? Let's take a look.

To see the nominees: CLICK

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Will Win: Inglourious Basterds
Should Win: Any of them

Yup. I said any of them. Why? Because this is an award for the CAST, not the film itself as is sometimes thought (like Slumdog Millionaire last year). Precious and Nine, neither of which are in my top 10, are as worthy as the other three because their casts worked well, whether in small parts or large. That said, Basterds seems like the most likely winner, with such a wide array of roles, though any of the others has a legitimate shot at winning tonight.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
Should Win: Colin Firth, Jeremy Renner, or George Clooney

Bridges may be the sentimental favorite, and his win at the Globes help boost his profile, but I'd be ecstatic if any of the three alternates took it for their superior work in all around superior films. Still, it'll be hard for the SAG to ignore Bridges' four previous Oscar nominations, and more if they saw more in his work in Crazy Heart more than I did, his will be the name read off of the envelope.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Meryl Streep
Should Win: Carey Mulligan or Gabourey Sidibe

Remember when Helen Mirren was actually in contention for this award? Yeah, that's probably the one contender that we can cross off. Other than that, everyone else here is a viable contender. The Globes may have fawned over Sandra Bullock, but the actors branch will be ready to push Streep one step closer to obtaining her third Oscar. However, I'd rather they give the award to someone younger, as either Sidibe or Mulligan would be a better choice. It's a shame these two breakout performances are being smothered by two veterans gunning for a first and third oscar.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Will and Should Win: Christoph Waltz

He's dominated all season, and this will be just one more trophy to add to his mantle place.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Mo'Nique
Should Win: Mo'nique or Anna Kendrick

Again, she's dominated awards season, though her personality could "get in the way" for whatever reason. If she loses this award, then she could be in trouble on Oscar night. If she wins, she ought to start writing an acceptance speech.

The Golden Globes: Who won, who lost, and who needs to start prepping an acceptance speech

Now that the HFPA has finished its star-whoring for the year, it's time to take a quick look at who's gaining and losing momentum as we move towards the SAG's, the BAFTA's, and finally, the Oscars themselves. We've still got a month and a half left of this awards craziness, which is actually a good thing for me, since I still need to see Crazy Heart, A Prophet (not until March 5th!! AGH!), The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, The Last Station, The Lovely Bones, and maybe even The Blind Side if it's still in theaters just so I can see for myself whether Sandra Bullock deserves all of this awards lovin'.

Best Motion Picture - Drama

WINNER

Avatar (2009)

Other Nominees:

The Hurt Locker (2008)

Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

Up in the Air (2009/I)

I can't say I'm pleased about this, but it's not unexpected. Box office was obviously king this year, and since the Globes don't hand out trophies for technical aspects, the best way for them to honor James Cameron's technologically superior extravaganza was in directing and picture. That said, the Academy, though slowly becoming more accepting of sci-fi/fantasy films, could be quite the opposite; of the past 5 Golden Globe Best Picture Drama winners, only ONE has gone on to take the top prize (Slumdog Millionaire).

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

WINNER

The Hangover (2009)

Other Nominees:

(500) Days of Summer (2009)

It's Complicated (2009)

Julie & Julia (2009)

Nine (2009)

One of the most shocking wins of Sunday night, don't expect this to translate into major awards love when the Oscar nominations are announced in early February. The film hasn't been a major presence throughout Awards Season aside from the HFPA, who saw its massive box office/general popularity and pounced. (500) Days of Summer should do decently with the Academy, but I'm still on the fence as to whether this delightful indie romantic comedy can make it in to the BIG 10. Julie and Julia has Streep going for it, and could be a surprise in some of the artistic categories, while It's Complicated has a slim chance at a screenplay nod and nothing more. Though I'm counting it out of the Best Picture race, Nine SHOULD do well in the artistic/tech categories, and hopefully score a supporting actress nomination for Marion Cotillard (which is where she belongs, Mr. Weinstein). Who knows, maybe AMPAS will even nominate the better song from Nine, "Take it All"; that would make my day, especially if Cotillard performs it at the ceremony.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

WINNER

Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart (2009)

Other Nominees:

George Clooney for Up in the Air (2009/I)

Colin Firth for A Single Man (2009)

Morgan Freeman for Invictus (2009)

Tobey Maguire for Brothers (2009/I)

Bridges, who hasn't quite dominated the critics awards like many figured (neither has Firth, for that matter) is suddenly picking up steam, with back-to-back wins from the Broadcast Critics Association and the HFPA, while Clooney seems to be fading, as does Freeman. There's still Jeremy Renner, who if I remember correctly, might actually have the greatest number of critics awards so far, despite being snubbed by the HFPA (he is nominated at the SAG's, however). Oh, and Tobey Maguire? Sorry bud, it ain't happening. At least you still have the Spiderman franchi-ooooooooooohhhhhh that's awkward....

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

WINNER

Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side (2009)

Other Nominees:

Emily Blunt for The Young Victoria (2009)

Helen Mirren for The Last Station (2009)

Carey Mulligan for An Education (2009)

Gabourey Sidibe for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

I remember those days three months ago when the thought of Sandra Bullock even being a viable contender made me laugh. I now feel really weird. The surprise hit The Blind Side is pushing Bullock closer than ever to an Oscar, and at this point, she's jumped to the lead of the Best Actress race, while former contenders Emily Blunt and Helen Mirren are starting to dwindle. Newcomers Mulligan and Sidibe, both excellent, should be thankful for the critics awards they've picked up, because unless the AMPAS voting body decides to be fickle, one of America's biggest starts may finally take home a golden boy after her best box-office year ever.

"You threaten my Oscar chances, you threaten me."

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

WINNER

Robert Downey Jr. for Sherlock Holmes (2009)

Other Nominees:

Matt Damon for The Informant! (2009)

Daniel Day-Lewis for Nine (2009)

Joseph Gordon-Levitt for (500) Days of Summer (2009)

Michael Stuhlbarg for A Serious Man (2009)

This is the one category where I don't think any of the nominees will make it to the Oscars as nominees. Downey Jr. and Day-Lewis' films should do well in art/tech categories, but don't expect them to get much else. Damon has a better chance at getting in for Invictus (which I ought to see but reeeeally don't want to). I'd love for Levitt or Stuhlbarg to get in, but even the former, who has a better shot, doesn't seem so likely now.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

WINNER

Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia (2009)

Other Nominees:

Sandra Bullock for The Proposal (2009/I)

Marion Cotillard for Nine (2009)

Julia Roberts for Duplicity (2009)

Meryl Streep for It's Complicated (2009)

This is where the Best Actress race becomes interesting. Roberts and Complicated Streep (as opposed to the victorious "T-Bone" Streep) have no chance, and Bullock will get in for her dramatic role. Cotillard poses no threat since she'll either be in supporting or not be nominated at all (sad). Even if she did miraculously get nominated in lead, Cotillard's chances would be non-existant. As of now, Best Actress will go to Bullock (her first), Streep (her third), or one of the two young newcomers (Mulligan and Sidibe).

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

WINNER

Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Other Nominees:

Matt Damon for Invictus (2009)

Woody Harrelson for The Messenger (2009/I)

Christopher Plummer for The Last Station (2009)

Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones (2009)

Stanley Tucci, no longer the threat to Waltz that he was a month ago, might not even end up a nominee. The same fate could befall Plummer, despite being a respected veteran with zero prior noms. Damon and Harrelson aren't quite sure bets, but it doesn't really matter because Waltz will take this without a doubt.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

WINNER

Mo'Nique for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

Other Nominees:

Penélope Cruz for Nine (2009)

Vera Farmiga for Up in the Air (2009/I)

Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air (2009/I)

Julianne Moore for A Single Man (2009)

Had Mo'nique lost this, I wouldn't be as sure, but now that she has the Globe, her longheld front-runner status (a la Jennifer Hudson in 2006) should carry her to the Oscar podium. If she takes the SAG award this Saturday, she'll be all but a lock, with only Kendrick as her real threat (Julianne Moore is bound to win an Oscar someday, but it won't be for this).

Best Director - Motion Picture

WINNER

James Cameron for Avatar (2009)

Other Nominees:

Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker (2008)

Clint Eastwood for Invictus (2009)

Jason Reitman for Up in the Air (2009/I)

Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds (2009)

I don't want it to happen, but I think it could, simply because of the amount of time Cameron put into developing new technology just to get this film get made. Then again, there are the tech categories, along with Kathryn Bigelow, AMPAS's first chance to reward a woman director since Sofia Coppola in 2003, or Quentin Tarantino, who's never won for directing, or Jason Reitman, who is has a perfect track record with critics, and was nominated for Juno when few expected it.

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture

WINNER

Up in the Air (2009/I): Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner

Other Nominees:

District 9 (2009): Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell

The Hurt Locker (2008): Mark Boal

Inglourious Basterds (2009): Quentin Tarantino

It's Complicated (2009): Nancy Meyers

I'm a little surprised the award didn't go to Tarantino, but I'm not complaining either. Seeing as Reitman/Turner and Tarantino won't have to compete at the Oscars, there's a solid chance that both will take home the gold. And despite its harrowing realism and intensity, very few seem to want to honor The Hurt Locker for writing. There's also contenders like A Serious Man and (500) Days of Summer to factor into the race as well.

Best Original Song - Motion Picture

WINNER

Crazy Heart (2009): T-Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham("The Weary Kind")

Other Nominees:

Avatar (2009): James Horner, Simon Franglen, Kuk Harrell("I See You")

Brothers (2009/I): U2, Bono("Winter")

Everybody's Fine (2009): Paul McCartney("(I Want To) Come Home")

Nine (2009): Maury Yeston("Cinema Italiano")

Best Original Score - Motion Picture

WINNER

Up (2009): Michael Giacchino

Other Nominees:

Avatar (2009): James Horner

The Informant! (2009): Marvin Hamlisch

A Single Man (2009): Abel Korzeniowski

Where the Wild Things Are (2009): Carter Burwell, Karen Orzolek

Best Animated Film

WINNER

Up (2009)

Other Nominees:

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (2009)

Coraline (2009)

Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009)

The Princess and the Frog (2009)

Not a surprise, and it won't be on Oscar night when Pixar takes home its third trophy in a row. I just hope AMPAS gives Original Score to A Single Man instead.

Best Foreign Language Film

WINNER

Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte (2009)

Other Nominees:

Los abrazos rotos (2009)

Baarìa (2009)

La nana (2009)

Un prophète (2009)

A Prophet could surprise here, but odds are that Haneke's Cannes champion will (deservedly) take it home.

Best Television Series - Drama

WINNER

"Mad Men" (2007)

Other Nominees:

"Big Love" (2006)

"Dexter" (2006)

"House M.D." (2004)

"True Blood" (2008)

Best Television Series - Musical or Comedy

WINNER

"Glee" (2009)

Other Nominees:

"Entourage" (2004)

"Modern Family" (2009)

"The Office" (2005)

"30 Rock" (2006)

Best Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

WINNER

Grey Gardens (2009) (TV)

Other Nominees:

Georgia O'Keeffe (2009) (TV)

Into the Storm (2009) (TV)

"Little Dorrit" (2008)

Taking Chance (2009) (TV)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

WINNER

Kevin Bacon for Taking Chance (2009) (TV)

Other Nominees:

Kenneth Branagh for "Wallander" (2008)

Chiwetel Ejiofor for Endgame (2009)

Brendan Gleeson for Into the Storm (2009) (TV)

Jeremy Irons for Georgia O'Keeffe (2009) (TV)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Mini-Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

WINNER

Drew Barrymore for Grey Gardens (2009) (TV)

Other Nominees:

Joan Allen for Georgia O'Keeffe (2009) (TV)

Jessica Lange for Grey Gardens (2009) (TV)

Anna Paquin for The Courageous Heart of Irena Sendler (2009) (TV)

Sigourney Weaver for Prayers for Bobby (2009) (TV)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Musical or Comedy

WINNER

Alec Baldwin for "30 Rock" (2006)

Other Nominees:

Steve Carell for "The Office" (2005)

David Duchovny for "Californication" (2007)

Thomas Jane for "Hung" (2009)

Matthew Morrison for "Glee" (2009)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series - Musical or Comedy

WINNER

Toni Collette for "United States of Tara" (2009)

Other Nominees:

Courteney Cox for "Cougar Town" (2009)

Edie Falco for "Nurse Jackie" (2009)

Tina Fey for "30 Rock" (2006)

Lea Michele for "Glee" (2009)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Drama

WINNER

Michael C. Hall for "Dexter" (2006)

Other Nominees:

Simon Baker for "The Mentalist" (2008)

Jon Hamm for "Mad Men" (2007)

Hugh Laurie for "House M.D." (2004)

Bill Paxton for "Big Love" (2006)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series - Drama

WINNER

Julianna Margulies for "The Good Wife" (2009)

Other Nominees:

Glenn Close for "Damages" (2007)

January Jones for "Mad Men" (2007)

Anna Paquin for "True Blood" (2008)

Kyra Sedgwick for "The Closer" (2005)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

WINNER

John Lithgow for "Dexter" (2006)

Other Nominees:

Michael Emerson for "Lost" (2004)

Neil Patrick Harris for "How I Met Your Mother" (2005)

William Hurt for "Damages" (2007)

Jeremy Piven for "Entourage" (2004)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

WINNER

Chloë Sevigny for "Big Love" (2006)

Other Nominees:

Jane Adams for "Hung" (2009)

Rose Byrne for "Damages" (2007)

Jane Lynch for "Glee" (2009)

Janet McTeer for Into the Storm (2009) (TV)