2013 Oscar WINNERS [Complete]

Correctly predicted 20 out of 24 Oscar winners!! 

We are now less than 24 hours from Oscar night (or, as it should be called for those in LA, Oscar afternoon), Hollywood's biggest night of self-congratulation, tears, and cheers. And, barring a few major categories, tomorrow night's show will conclude one of the most exciting Oscar races in years. The top prize may be all but locked for Ben Affleck's Argo, but plenty of other categories are, refreshingly, up in the air, including Best Director, and half of the acting categories. There are a handful of risks in my predictions for tomorrow's ceremony, but predicting these awards shows isn't fun without at least one gutsy choice. Come tomorrow night/afternoon, we'll know all of the winners, whether they be completely expected, or shocking upsets. And then we get to start the countdown to the 2013 awards season and 2014 Oscars, and go through the whole cycle of ups and downs all over again.

For a refresher on the nominees, click HERE. 

Best Picture
Front Runner: Argo
Alternates: Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln
Winner: Argo

Best Director
Front Runner: Ang Lee - Life of Pi
Alternates: Steven Spielberg - Lincoln, Michael Haneke - Amour
Winner: Ang Lee - Life of Pi

Best Actor
Front Runner: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln [99% lock]
Alternates: Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook [0.5%], Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables [0.5%]
Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis - Oscar

Best Actress:
Front Runner: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Alternates: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Winner: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actor
Front Runner: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Alternates: Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook, Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
Winner: Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

Best Supporting Actress
Front Runner: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Alternates: N/A
Winner: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

Best Original Screenplay
Front Runner: Amour
Alternates: Django Unchained, Zero Dark Thirty
Winner: Django Unchained

Best Adapted Screenplay
Front Runner: Argo
Alternates: Lincoln
Winner: Argo

Best Editing
Front Runner: Argo
Alternates: Zero Dark Thirty
Winner: Argo


Best Cinematography
Front Runner: Life of Pi
Alternates: Skyfall
Winner: Life of Pi


Best Production Design
Front Runner: Anna Karenina
Alternates: Les Miserables
Winner: Lincoln


Best Costume Design
Front Runner: Anna Karenina
Alternates: Mirror Mirror
Winner: Anna Karenina


Best Animated Film
Front Runner: Brave
Alternates: Wreck-It-Ralph
Winner: Brave


Best Foreign Language Film
Front Runner: Amour [Austria]
Alternates: N/A
Winner: Amour [Austria]


Best Make Up
Front Runner: Les Miserables
Alternates: The Hobbit
Winner: Les Miserables


Best Original Score
Front Runner: Life of Pi
Alternates: Anna Karenina
Winner: Life of Pi


Best Original Song
Front Runner: "Skyfall" - Skyfall
Alternates: "Suddenly" - Les Miserables
Winner: "Skyfall" - Skyfall


Best Sound Mixing
Front Runner: Les Miserables
Alternates: Argo, Life of Pi
Winner: Les Miserables


Best Sound Editing
Front Runner: Life of Pi
Alternates: Argo
Winner [TIE]: Zero Dark Thirty and Skyfall


Best Visual Effects
Front Runner: Life of Pi
Alternates: N/A
Winner: Life of Pi


Best Documentary [Feature]
Front Runner: Searching for Sugarman
Alternates: How to Survive a Plague, The Invisible War
Winner: Searching for Sugarman

Best Documentary [Short]
Front Runner: Inocente (??)
Alternates: Redemption (??)
Winner: Inocente

Best Animated Film [Short]
Front Runner: Paperman
Alternates: N/A
Winner: Paperman

Best Live Action Film [Short]
Front Runner: Asad
Alternates: Buzkashi Boys
Winner: Curfew

2013 SAG Award Predictions

The only one of the major guild awards that has a televised ceremony, the SAGs are noteworthy more for how they indicate potential acting winners. Though there have been plenty of divergent outcomes (Viola Davis won the SAG trophy last time, only to lose the Oscar to Meryl Streep), SAG's awards still play an important role in the race to Oscar night. What makes this year so intriguing, however, is that there are a number of nominees who failed to make the Oscar list (Marion Cotillard, John Hawkes), and Oscar nominees who aren't present here (Christoph Waltz). On a broader level, the 2012-2013 awards season has been one of the most unpredictable in years, and is a logical step away from predictable results after last awards season. Where the past few years have been settled in the guilds (The King's Speech triumphed at the guilds and the Oscars, despite The Social Network dominating critics awards), this year the guilds could cement a potential frontrunner in Argo, or make the remaining weeks of the season even less certain than before. Below is my stab at making predictions for tonight's ceremony:

For a refresher on the nominees, click HERE.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
Front Runner: Silver Linings Playbook
Alternates: Les Miserables, Argo

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Front Runner: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Alternates: Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables, Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Front Runner: Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Alternates: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Front Runner: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Alternates: Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook


Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
Front Runner: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Alternates: Nope.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series:
Front Runner: Modern Family
Alternates: Girls, 30Rock


Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series:
Front Runner: Homeland
Alternates: Breaking Bad


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series:
Front Runner: Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
Alternates: Alec Baldwin - 30Rock


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series:
Front Runner: Damien Lewis - Homeland
Alternates: Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series:
Front Runner: Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation
Alternates: Tina Fey - 30Rock


Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series:
Front Runner: Claire Danes - Homeland
Alternates: Nope.


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a TV Movie or Mini-Series:
Front Runner: Kevin Costner - Hatfields and McCoys
Alternates: Woody Harrelson - Game Change


Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a TV Movie or Mini-Series:
Front Runner: Julianne Moore - Game Change
Alternates: Nope.

Best of 2012: Dream Oscar Ballot

With 2012 roughly half a month behind us, I've decided that I ought to finally go ahead and put out what would, in essence be my picks for nominees (and winners), assuming I had a god-like control of awards season. In my Top 10 post, I said basically all that I wanted to say about 2012 in film, but it can't hurt to recap. For me, 2012 stands as an incredibly diverse year, even as it produced fewer films that were brilliant from start to finish. There are a great deal of films that I like from last year, but the number that I love is lower than 2011 or 2007. And even among the films I loved, there were few that weren't without their noticeable bumps. Life of Pi has its framing device, Les Mis has some irritating camera work and editing, and Holy Motors doesn't enthrall as much on a second viewing, when the exhilarating shock of it has worn off. Yet even so, there were so many films that had worthwhile aspects and, in some cases, reached heights that few films ever do. It may have only been in the score, the photography, or a key performance, but those individual pieces matter, whether they're the only strong part of a film or not. 2012 stands as a year in cinema that brought us few consistent masterworks. Yet broken down into pieces, it could still be viewed as a strong year, because the components of so many films were absolutely first rate. With that, here's my take on which pieces (and whole works) dominated a wildly diverse year at the movies.

*Categories have between five and seven nominees, with the exception of Visual Effects. Winners, in addition to being pictured, are typed in boldface. 

THE BEST OF 2012

Best Picture

Amour

Holy Motors

Les Miserables

Moonrise Kingdom

The Master

Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
Wes Anderson - Moonrise Kingdom

Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty

Leos Carax - Holy Motors

Michael Haneke - Amour
Ang Lee - Life of Pi

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables

Denis Lavant - Holy Motors
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master

Matthias Schoenaerts - Bullhead

Jean-Louis Trintignant - Amour

Best Actress

Linda Cardellini - Return
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone

Eva Green - Perfect Sense

Emmanuelle Riva - Amour

Michelle Williams - Take This Waltz

Best Supporting Actor

Russell Crowe - Les Miserables

Paul Giamatti - Cosmopolis
Jude Law - Anna Karenina
Matthew McConaughey - Killer Joe

Scoot McNairy - Killing Them Softly

Best Supporting Actress

Ann Dowd - Compliance

Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

Isabelle Huppert - Amour

Brit Marling - Sound of My Voice

Juno Temple - Killer Joe

Best Ensemble Cast

Anna Karenina

Killer Joe

Les Miserables

Moonrise Kingdom

Seven Psychopaths

Best Original Screenplay

Amour

Moonrise Kingdom

Tabu

The Master

Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay

A Royal Affair

Killer Joe

Lincoln

Oslo, August 31st

Silver Linings Playbook

Best Editing

Argo

Cloud Atlas

Moonrise Kingdom

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Best Cinematography

Anna Karenina

Moonrise Kingdom

Samsara

Skyfall

Tabu

The Master

Best Production Design

Anna Karenina

A Royal Affair

Les Miserables

Moonrise Kingdom

Prometheus

Best Costume Design

Anna Karenina

Les Miserables

Mirror, Mirror

Moonrise Kingdom

Snow White and the Huntsman

Best Foreign Language Film

Amour [Austria]

A Royal Affair [Denmark]

Bullhead [Belgium]

Holy Motors [France]

Oslo, August 31st [Norway]

Tabu [Portugal]

Best Documentary Film

How to Survive a Plague

Jiro Dreams of Sushi

The Queen of Versailles

Best Original Score

Anna Karenina

Cosmopolis
Moonrise Kingdom

Perfect Sense

The Master

Best Original Song

"Who Were We?" - Holy Motors

"Suddenly" - Les Miserables

"Big Machine" - Safety Not Guaranteed

"Skyfall" - Skyfall

"Baddest Man Alive" - The Man with the Iron Fists

Best Visual Effects

Cloud Atlas

Life of Pi

Prometheus

Best Make Up

Cloud Atlas

Holy Motors

Les Miserables

Prometheus

The Impossible

Best Sound Mixing

Argo

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Prometheus

Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Editing

Argo

Life of Pi

Prometheus

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Performer of the Year

Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables & The Dark Knight Rises
Matthew McConaughey - Bernie, Killer Joe, & Magic Mike

Alicia Vikander - Anna Karenina & A Royal Affair

Breakthrough of the Year

Jared Gillman - Moonrise Kingdom
Kara Hayward - Moonrise Kingdom

Eddie Redmayne - Les Miserables

Alicia Vikander - Anna Karenina & A Royal Affair

Craig Zobel - Compliance

Best Poster

Best Trailer

2013 Golden Globes Predictions

Say what you want about the HFPA, but you can't deny that the Golden Globes are quite the party. The organization's awards show, given extra promise by hosts Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, is missing some suspense this year. For the first time in decades (possibly in the Globes' history), the ceremony is taking place after the release of the Oscar nominations. As such, there's room for some interesting wins to happen, as it's entirely possible that certain winners could accept their awards already knowing that their road to the Oscars is dead (Marion Cotillard, Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow, Nicole Kidman). By and large, though, expect plenty of winners to be among the names announced on January 10th. Here's my best shot at predicting who we'll likely see up at the podium in a few hours.

For a refresher on the nominees, click HERE. 

Best Picture: Drama
Front Runner: Lincoln
Alternates: Argo, Zero Dark Thirty


Best Picture: Musical or Comedy
Front Runner: Silver Linings Playbook
Alternates: Les Miserables

Best Actor: Drama
Front Runner: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Alternates: Joaquin Phoenix - The Master

Best Actress: Drama
Front Runner: Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Alternates: Naomi Watts - The Impossible

Best Actor: Musical or Comedy
Front Runner: Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Alternates: Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook

Best Actress: Musical or Comedy
Front Runner: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Alternates: None.


Best Supporting Actor
Front Runner: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Alternates: Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained, Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

Best Supporting Actress
Front Runner: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Alternates: Sally Field - Lincoln, Amy Adams - The Master

Best Director
Front Runner: Ben Affleck - Argo
Alternates: Steven Spielberg - Lincoln, Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty

Best Screenplay
Front Runner: Lincoln
Alternates: Django Unchained

Best Original Song
Front Runner: "Skyfall" - Skyfall
Alternates: "Suddenly" - Les Miserables

Best Original Score
Front Runner: Lincoln
Alternates: Anna Karenina

Best Animated Film
Front Runner: Wreck-It Ralph
Alternates: Frankenweenie, Brave

Best Foreign Language Film
Front Runner: Amour
Alternates: The Intouchables


And let's not forget the TV categories...

Best TV Series: Drama
Front Runner: Homeland
Alternates: Breaking Bad

Best TV Series: Musical or Comedy
Front Runner: Modern Family
Alternates: Girls

Best Mini-series or TV Movie
Front Runner: Game Change
Alternates: Hatfields and McCoys

Best Actor: Drama
Front Runner: Damian Lewis - Homeland
Alternates: Brian Cranston - Breaking Bad

Best Actress: Drama
Front Runner: Claire Danes - Homeland
Alternates: None

Best Actor: Musical or Comedy
Front Runner: Louis CK - Louie
Alternates: Alec Baldwin - 30Rock

Best Actress: Musical or Comedy
Front Runner: Julia Louis-Dreyfuss - Veep
Alternates: Lena Dunham - Girls, Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation

Best Actor in a Mini-series or TV Movie
Front Runner: Kevin Costner - Hatfields and McCoys
Alternates: Woody Harrelson - Game Change

Best Actress in a Mini-series or TV Movie
Front Runner: Julianne Moore - Game Change
Alternates: Jessica Lange - American Horror Story: Asylum

Best Supporting Actor (TV, Mini-series, TV Movie)
Front Runner: Eric Stonestreet - Modern Family
Alternates: Mandy Patinkin - Homeland

Best Supporting Actress (TV, Mini-series, TV Movie)
Front Runner: Sarah Paulson - Game Change
Alternates: Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey, Sofia Vergara - Modern Family

2013 Oscar Predictions (minus shorts, docs, and techs)

With the Academy Award nominations arriving on January 10th, roughly two weeks earlier than usual, it's time to finally process the deluge of guilds and critics awards to try and churn out some half-decent predictions. The last major group, The BAFTAs, announced their nominees this morning, leaving only the Academy (tomorrow also marks the first televised award show: the Critics Choice Awards). As with the past few years (since the Best Picture field was widened to 10, and then made more fluid to allow between five and 10 nominees), there are plenty of sure bets, yet most categories have room for surprise nominees, left-field picks, and major snubs. Below is, to the best of my ability, a glimpse at what films and names will be read off tomorrow morning by Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone (barring the short films and technical categories).

Best Picture:
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Amour

Most Vulnerable: Amour (by a huge margin)
Alternates: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom, Django Unchained, The Master

Best Director:
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck - Argo
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
Tom Hooper - Les Miserables

Most Vulnerable: Lee or Hooper
Alternates: Michael Haneke (Amour), Quentin Tarantino (Django), David O. Russell (Silver Linings), Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Denzel Washington - Flight
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes - The Sessions

Most Vulnerable: Bradley Cooper
Alternates: Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

Best Actress:
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Naomi Watts - The Impossible
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone

Most Vulnerable: Emmanuelle Riva
Alternates: Helen Mirren (Hitchcock), Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea), Quevenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Best Supporting Actor:
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Alan Arkin - Argo
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook

Most Vulnerable: Robert DeNiro
Alternates: Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Javier Bardem (Skyfall), Eddie Redmayne (Les Miserables), Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained)

Best Supporting Actress:
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Sally Field - Lincoln
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Ann Dowd - Compliance
Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Most Vulnerable: Ann Dowd
Alternates: Amy Adams (The Master), Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy), Maggie Smith (Quartet)

Best Original Screenplay:
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Amour
Flight

Most Vulnerable: Amour
Alternates: Looper, The Master

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Most Vulnerable: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alternates: The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Animated Film:
Frankenweenie
Paranorman
Wreck-It Ralph
Rise of the Guardians
Brave

Best Foreign Language Film:
Amour [Austria]
The Intouchables [France]
A Royal Affair [Denmark]
Kon-Tiki [Norway]
No [Chile]

The Run Down: The 84th Academy Awards

Oscar turned 84 last night, and celebrated by honoring the past. Not only were two movies about cinema's early years big winners (The Artist and Hugo), but Billy Crystal rose to host once again, and Christopher Plummer became the oldest acting winner in history at 82, making him just two years younger than the award he accepted. As with many of the recent Oscar ceremonies, surprises were few and far between, though there was certainly a major one (we'll get there later). And, as with any Oscar ceremony, there were moments worthy of applause, and moments worthy of total mockery, although thankfully nothing was as painful as James Franco's complete lack of effort last year.

The Good

The Artist reigns supreme: The Artist and Hugo earned 10 and 11 Oscar nominations respectively, but ultimately AMPAS went with Michel Hazanvicius' black and white silent film. Not that Hugo was shunned; Scorcese's tribute to cinema managed to pick up 5 trophies in the technical categories. In the end, though, The Artist came out on top, also winning 5 trophies, but in three of the top categories (Picture, Director, Actor), which was a welcome change of pace after the Hugo-dominated first half of the ceremony. To paraphrase one commenter last night, Hugo tells you why old cinema is important, but The Artist actually shows you why old cinema is important.

The Presentation: Despite some awkward attempts at comedy by the presenters (Downey Jr. and Paltrow's bit really didn't work), the show flowed incredibly well, handing out awards without much lag.

Except for this mess...

Even the totally superfluous Cirque du Soleil performance didn't slow the show down, which only ran about 5 minutes past its 3 hour time slot. Pretty damn good when you consider that some ceremonies have lasted upwards of 4.5 hours.

Clips: One of the strangest trends in recent Oscar ceremonies has been the omission of clips during the presentation of the acting nominees. Thankfully this year's ceremony corrected that, and gave the nominees strong clips to demonstrate their efforts (the clips for Viola Davis and Rooney Mara were particularly well-chosen).

The acting winners' acceptance speeches: I really hope the Oscars' Youtube page adds clips from last night soon, because I really can't wait to watch these speeches again. In short, they were both extremely humble (not to mention adorable) and well handled. And as much flack as Streep has taken for winning awards these past few months, she has remained a class act through all of it.

The Original Score Presentation: Instead of simply listing off the nominees and playing some brief samples, the show went in a surprisingly epic direction for the Original Score category by sending up a massive screen designed to look like a stand with sheet music. Making it even better was Crystal's priceless reaction to the spectacle, an unimpressed "eh..."

Baxter and Wall, 2 for 2: After scooping up an incredibly deserved Best Editing Oscar for The Social Network last year, Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall scored again for their excellent work on David Fincher's The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. It was a welcome surprise in the tech categories, which were otherwise dominated by Hugo and The Artist.

Jim Rash mocks Angelina Jolie: Angelina Jolie's extreme slit on her dress was certainly eye-catching, though it was slightly confusing when the actress tried to make a big deal of it by flaunting her leg. Not missing a beat, Jim Rash, one of the three winning writers for The Descendants, struck his own pose during the trio's acceptance speech, and provided one of the best improvised laughs of the night.

Natalie Portman: The Swan Queen returned to present Best Actor, and looked damn good doing it.

Will Ferrell and Zach Galifiankis being ridiculous:

The cast of Bridesmaids' drinking game: Continuing a gag from the SAG awards last month, the ladies from Bridesmaids drank anytime the name Scorcese was mentioned. Even funnier was the fact that Scorcese was unaware of the joke; the director looked positively baffled during the moment.

This picture:

The In-Between

Billy Crystal: There's no doubt that Billy Crystal is one of the Oscars' best hosts, but last night won't go down as one of his better efforts. Some of the material felt stale, and even the opening sequence featuring the host inserted into the nominated films (a Crystal staple) fell flat in comparison to years past. I can't believe I'm saying this, but Hathaway and Franco did a better job stealing Crystal's schtick last year.

Meryl Streep wins her third Oscar: It's been a long time coming, but Queen Meryl finally won her third Oscar statue, providing the only surprising acting winner of the night. Most everyone thought Viola Davis had this locked up, and the shock was palpable.

Meanwhile, in the balcony: What on earth was with those commercial bumps featuring the band sitting up in the Kodak Theater's box seats?

Wait, didn't Nicole Kidman wear that 5 years ago?:

The Bad

Hugo wins Best Cinematography and Best Visual Effects:

One day, Emmanuel...one day...

Comparing the efforts of Hugo to those of The Tree of Life and Rise of the Planet of the Apes only makes these two wins look like complete jokes. The cinematography win is particularly troubling, considering that Lubezki's work on Malick's opus is some of the best DP work in years.

Supporting Actors are special too: Why were the lead actor/actress nominees given individual tributes by the presenters while the supporting actors were presented just like every other award? Some of the greatest performances of all time are supporting roles, and it looks pretty condescending to treat the leading nominees as more important.

Harry Potter and the Oscarless Film Franchise: The mega-successful film series' last film went home empty handed, leaving the massive 8-film franchise completely devoid of Oscar wins. They couldn't even throw an award to Stuart Craig's mind-blowing art direction, even after all of these years of bringing J.K. Rowling's world so beautifully to life. For shame.