2013 SAG Award Predictions

The only one of the major guild awards that has a televised ceremony, the SAGs are noteworthy more for how they indicate potential acting winners. Though there have been plenty of divergent outcomes (Viola Davis won the SAG trophy last time, only to lose the Oscar to Meryl Streep), SAG's awards still play an important role in the race to Oscar night. What makes this year so intriguing, however, is that there are a number of nominees who failed to make the Oscar list (Marion Cotillard, John Hawkes), and Oscar nominees who aren't present here (Christoph Waltz). On a broader level, the 2012-2013 awards season has been one of the most unpredictable in years, and is a logical step away from predictable results after last awards season. Where the past few years have been settled in the guilds (The King's Speech triumphed at the guilds and the Oscars, despite The Social Network dominating critics awards), this year the guilds could cement a potential frontrunner in Argo, or make the remaining weeks of the season even less certain than before. Below is my stab at making predictions for tonight's ceremony:

For a refresher on the nominees, click HERE.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
Front Runner: Silver Linings Playbook
Alternates: Les Miserables, Argo

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Front Runner: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Alternates: Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables, Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Front Runner: Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Alternates: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Front Runner: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Alternates: Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook


Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
Front Runner: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Alternates: Nope.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series:
Front Runner: Modern Family
Alternates: Girls, 30Rock


Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series:
Front Runner: Homeland
Alternates: Breaking Bad


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series:
Front Runner: Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
Alternates: Alec Baldwin - 30Rock


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series:
Front Runner: Damien Lewis - Homeland
Alternates: Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series:
Front Runner: Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation
Alternates: Tina Fey - 30Rock


Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series:
Front Runner: Claire Danes - Homeland
Alternates: Nope.


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a TV Movie or Mini-Series:
Front Runner: Kevin Costner - Hatfields and McCoys
Alternates: Woody Harrelson - Game Change


Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a TV Movie or Mini-Series:
Front Runner: Julianne Moore - Game Change
Alternates: Nope.

State of the Race: The Guild Awards

With last night's SAG awards out of the way, the Oscar race is finally becoming a little clearer. After months and months of uncertainty, clear frontrunners are emerging, and the race is really taking shape. That said, there's still room for a few surprises on Oscar night, which is always welcome. Which is even more impressive now that Hollywood's three big guilds have handed out their awards for 2011. No matter how many critics prizes a film takes, in the end its industry support that matters. Look no further than The Social Network/The King's Speech for a classic example of a critical favorite eventually trumped by a film that hit it off big time with the industry. And in a year where so much is uncertain, we can at least try to speculate where AMPAS' votes will go, though unlike last year nothing is quite set in stone.

Best Picture

Frontrunner: The Artist

The Help may have picked up the SAG's top prize, but that's for ensemble, not picture (though SAG sometimes votes as if it is). Both the PGA and the DGA have gone to The Artist, which has emerged from the field of 9 contenders as the one with the best chance. The Descendants, Hugo, The Help, and even The Tree of Life all have their ardent supporters, but ultimately, this is The Artist's to lose.

Best Director

Frontrunner: Michel Hazanvicius - The Artist

The film certainly stands out among the crowd as a modern-day silent, and seeing as AMPAS generally tends to lump picture and director together, expect Hazanvicius to be swept along with his film.

Best Actor

Frontrunner: George Clooney - The Descendants

Though his loss last night to Dujardin was a blow to his momentum, Clooney remains the logical pick for the win, even though Dujardin is rapidly closing in on his lead. Clearly the actors love him, and the industry seems to love The Artist, so Dujardin could ultimately prove victorious. At the moment, however, Clooney's golden boy status could still be enough to keep him in first place.

Best Actress

Frontrunner: Viola Davis - The Help

Had Meryl Streep won the SAG award last night, I would have been ready to declare her third Oscar win all sewn up. But SAG went with Davis, whose film is clearly much more popular. Streep may have claimed the Globe, but Davis has the more popular film and the SAG momentum on her side.

Best Supporting Actor

Frontrunner: Christopher Plummer - Beginners

Probably the acting race's only lock, and he's only emerged recently. With back-to-back wins from the Globes and SAG, and the complete drop-out of Albert Brooks' campaign, Plummer is poised for an easy (though still very deserved) victory.

Best Supporting Actress

Frontrunner: Octavia Spencer - The Help

Though she's not quite the lock that Plummer is, she's pretty damn close. There's still room for co-star Jessica Chastain to sneak in and win here, but ultimately her nomination will prove to be her reward for her break-out year. Not a sure thing, but at the end of the day, this is Spencer's to lose.

That's all for now. More to come after the BAFTA awards next month, and then a final round of predictions just before Oscar night. We're almost at the end!

2011 DGA Nominations: And the race gets weirder...

As many critics awards as their are across the nation, at the end of the day it's really the guild awards that act as better indicators of who's winning AMPAS' favor, especially in a year as uncertain as 2011. We certainly saw that last year when The Social Network won just about everything under the sun, until The King's Speech trounced it at the guild awards and on Oscar night. The SAG, PGA, and WGA have all announced their nominees, leaving only the Director's Guild. And with their nominees, they've thrown a wrench into some Oscar campaigns, while giving others a boost.

The Nominees:

Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris

David Fincher - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Michel Hazanvicius - The Artist

Alexander Payne - The Descendants

Martin Scorcese - Hugo

Who got a boost: The biggest winner after today has to be Fincher and Dragon Tattoo as a whole. Ever since the first screenings, the film was being labeled as one that would make little to no contribution to the awards race. In the past few weeks the film has scored with the PGA and WGA, and the DGA nod is just icing on the cake. For the film to miss out on a Best Picture nomination and/or Best Director nomination is becoming increasingly unlikely. Star Rooney Mara may have missed with the SAG, but could still end up as a surprise Best Actress nominee, as one of many nominations the film looks likely to score now. So even though Dragon Tattoo isn't necessarily a threat to win the top prize, at the very least it can consider itself a strong contender, which is quite to comeback considering all of the doubters.

Then there's Woody Allen and Alexander Payne. Payne's film has generally stood a better shot, but there was always the chance that he would get pushed out by contenders with "bigger" films. After today, though, he's become even more of a sure thing, though the actual win is doubtful. The same goes for Allen, who could score his first Best Director nomination since Bullets Over Broadway (1994). If either of these two men takes the DGA prize, however, it will only serve to further upset the Best Director race.

Who took a hit: Unlike Woody Allen, whose film also launched in early summer, Terrence Malick was allowed any love from the DGA, or any major guild for that matter. Considering the divisive nature of Malick's film, however, it's not entirely surprising. Drive's Nicholas Winding-Refn and War Horse's Steven Spielberg, however, should probably not get their hopes up for the remainder of awards season. I'm sure Refn had a fan base within the DGA for Drive, but at the end of the day the voters favored established names (well, aside from Spielberg). Of course, there's always room for surprises come Nomination morning, but knowing the DGA's close alignment with the Academy, I suspect the chances for the above-mentioned trio are at long last dead. Such a shame...at least for the first two. War Horse has, to be honest, felt like nothing but an afterthought and an obligation rather than a legitimate contender.

2011 SAG Nominees

I've more or less avoided commenting on the 2011-12 Awards Season so far, due to a number of factors. However, with this morning's unveiling of the Screen Actors Guild nominees and tomorrow's Golden Globe nominee announcement, I figured it was time to put in my 2 cents on the state of the race so far.

For a full list of the SAG nominees, click HERE.

Film:

Starting with Best Ensemble (the closest thing SAG has to a Best Picture award, even though it really isn't, and shouldn't be voted on as such), we've got a mix of the predictable and the surprising. For all of the awards love that I'm expecting The Artist to receive over the next few months, it never seemed like an ensemble piece. Dujardin and Bejo (both nominated) seemed like the only major players in the modern-day silent film. Clearly, SAG thought differently. Other mentions, however, like The Descendants, Midnight in Paris, and The Help seem rather obvious. And then (thankfully) there's Bridesmaids, which could prove to be the awards season party-crasher in a year where (FINALLY) nothing/no one seems like a "lock" to win. Remember last year when almost every critics group gave Best Actress to Natalie Portman? Yeah, not happening this year. We finally have a really interesting awards race, and Bridesmaids' pitch-perfect female ensemble is just icing on the cake. By the time the stardust has cleared and the champagne has stopped flowing at the end of February, I'm sure that more tradtional, "Oscar bait" films (War Horse) will have made there mark, but if ever there was a year for things to get crazy, this is it.

Next we go to Male Actor in a Leading Role and Female Actor in a Leading Role. Though response to J. Edgar has been pretty muted, I guess I shouldn't be that surprised that DiCaprio made it in here. SAG does love to reward actors in Eastwood films (part of me thought they might toss a nod to Judi Dench, who was, admittedly, the best thing about J. Edgar). At the same time, you'd think that a branch full of actors might have noticed the "we did it in one take!" nature of DiCaprio's performance (it shows). Then there's Demian Bichir for A Better Life, and I have to confess, I have no idea where this came from. If there was going to be a "surprise" here, I thought it would be Shame's Michael Fassbender or even Take Shelter's Michael Shannon (both wrongfully snubbed). "But where the hell are Fassbender and Shannon!?" - George Clooney, demanding answers.

Other than DiCaprio and Bichir, though, the male lineup is filled out by our three presumed front-runners: Dujardin, George Clooney (The Descendants), and Brad Pitt (Moneyball). I haven't been able to see The Artist, but between Clooney and Pitt, I hope this one goes to the former. As much as I like Pitt as an actor, he keeps getting recognized for his weaker performances (though Moneyball is a much better performance than Benjamin Button). And as for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy's Gary Oldman, well, better luck next time. "We're not so very different, you and I. We're both searching for a GODDAMN OSCAR!!!"

Much more interesting, however, is how the leading ladies are shaping up. It's an unusually contentious year, with veterans (Streep, Close) and newcomers (Elizabeth Olsen, snubbed) fighting it out for five spots. Michelle Williams, who has picked up two critics awards thus far, is starting to become more of a threat than I thought she would be. Then there's Tilda Swinton, who finally seems to be on her way to a second Oscar nomination. "Wait...I actually got in? Wha..."

The film may have barely any exposure (as of now, it's not scheduled to open anywhere in the US outside of New York and L.A., which seems ridiculous), but that doesn't have an bearing on awards bodies. With back-to-back snubs (09's Julia and 10's I am Love), Swinton's passionate fan base has finally expanded, and the build-up could be enough to push her through to second Oscar nomination (about time). Then there's the above-mentioned Olsen, along with Charlize Theron, who still stand as potential threats.

As far as the supporting categories go, the women seem to be taking shape, while the men seems as all-over-the-place as ever. Berenice Bejo, previously thought to be gone, has finally come back. More predictable are The Help's Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain (at which point I'll assume that this is the performance she'll be primarily rewarded for in the future). "White people, man. White people..." - Octavia Spencer.

Melissa McCarthy from Bridesmaids is a nice surprise, and it's good to see that the handful of critics awards she's picked up haven't been for nothing. All the same, it's too bad that co-star Kristen Wiig has been so thoroughly ignored. Hopefully the Globes will change that tomorrow morning. Finally, there's Janet McTeer from Albert Nobbs, who's been earning some of the film's strongest reviews. On the other hand, this looks like the end of the road for Coriolanus' Vanessa Redgrave.

As for the men, the category has some mild front-runners, but the other slots have always seemed like question marks. Beginners' Christopher Plummer could very well take this, although SAG might fall in love with Branagh's interpretation of Laurence Olivier. Nick Nolte (Warrior) was once brought up as a possibility, but the film's failure at the box office seemed to be the end of him until now. As far as Jonah Hill and Armie Hammer are concerned, though, they probably ought to be happy that they made it in here at all.

TV:

I won't cover this as extensively, but there's a few things that need to be said. I've come to expect Community being snubbed, but where on earth is Parks and Recreation in the comedy categories? "This is LITERALLY the most disappointing snub of the year."

That cast should be filling out any number of slots, especially Amy Poehler, Rob Lowe, Nick Offerman, and Adam Scott. Jumping over to drama, an even bigger issue: how on earth did SAG pass up Showtime's outstanding Homeland, far and away the best new show of the year? At the very least, you'd think they could throw Claire Danes and Damian Lewis nominations (the former of whom was absolutely incredible in the season's penultimate episode). Unless the show was (for whatever reason) ineligible, this borders on inexcusable, especially considering the fact that Dexter managed to make it in. Yes, season 6 is a step up from whatever the hell season 5 was, but there's a limit. Claire Danes after seeing that Dexter made it in over Homeland.

Another bone to pick with SAG, though, comes down to the structure of the awards: why on earth do the TV awards not have separate categories for lead and supporting roles? There are so many good performances on TV right now, and the current roster of categories leaves the categories prone to defaulting to lead performances (except in the comedy categories). Oh well, at the very least Breaking Bad and Game of Thrones are nominated, although Aaron Paul and Peter Dinklage have fallen victim to the limited acting categories. At least they didn't do something crazy like nominating Colin Hanks for Dexter. Yeesh. "Yo, Claire: u mad?" - Jessica Lange.

One nice surprise, however, is the inclusion of American Horror Story's Jessica Lange in drama. The role is clearly supporting, and the show is batshit-insane and messy as hell, but Lange is one of the most consistently compelling (and deliciously campy) aspects of that glorious train wreck (season 1, and Connie Britton is already about to give birth to the antichrist...seriously).

The SAG awards air on January 29th; here's hoping that the guild members at least make some inspired choices from their relatively uninspired choices.

BAFTA Winners confirm front-runners + a few surprises.

It's almost over. With tonight's BAFTA ceremony completed, the last major awards show before the Oscars (let's not forget the Independent Spirit Awards, however) is out of the way, leaving only the BIG ONE left before awards season madness ends. As expected, BAFTA voters went a decidedly British route with their choices (though I'm not complaining...for the most part). But, in addition to confirming some long-standing front-runners, BAFTA's nominee roster also gave them room for a few surprises, some whom could plausibly repeat on Oscar night. Notable wins of ceremony include:

Best Actor (Colin Firth) and Best Actress (Natalie Portman): Unsurprisingly, Colin Firth and Natalie Portman continued to dominate their respective categories, a feat far from undeserved. Barring some gargantuan surprise (Annette Bening?), the BAFTAs for these two all but seal the deal for their Oscar wins.

Best Supporting Actor (Geoffrey Rush) and Best Supporting Actress (Helena Bonham Carter): If only The King's Speech had a prominent leading lady, and the film could have very well swept the acting awards. What's interesting about both of these wins is that they both have good chances at the Oscars. Rush will likely lose to Christian Bale, but if the Academy really goes nuts for The King's Speech, anything's possible. Bonham Carter is in a trickier spot. The likely winner of this category, Melissa Leo, wasn't even nominated, so the two weren't in competition. Still, Carter could be viewed as "over due" by AMPAS, who have only nominated her once prior despite a career of acclaimed work. And she did win over Lesley Manville, who I thought would easily take this.

Best Film and Best British Film (The King's Speech): Taking both "top" awards of the night is recently ordained front-runner The King's Speech, which recently scored the triple crown (no pun intended) by winning at the PGA, DGA, and SAG. This only adds to the likelihood that the film will take the top prize from the Academy. That said, there may be another major category where it misses out....

Best Director (David Fincher): A slight rebound amid The Social Network's loss of front-runner status was Fincher's win for directing. With the chances high that the Oscars will be a blood bath between The King's Speech and The Social Network, it's not entirely unlikely that there could be a Picture/Director split, the first since 2005 (Crash/Ang Lee). Fincher's win is exciting for two reasons. Not only do I think he's a deserving winner, but his win in conjunction with TKS winning Picture only adds a little bit more suspense to the awards race, which it certainly needs.

For the rest of the winners, head on over the IMDb.

WGA writes in a (minor) twist

Last night's Writer's Guild of America awards accomplished two things last night: 1) they confirmed that Aaron Sorkin's screenplay for The Social Network has Best Adapted Screenplay all but locked up, and 2) made the Original Screenplay race more uncertain. Speech's David Seidler has taken most of the major awards where Screenplay is separated into Original/Adapted thus far. And with the film's recent triumphs at the PGA, DGA, and SAG, a win for the screenplay was expected here.

At least, until the screenplay missed out on a nomination (along with many other contenders) due to its ineligibility. That left the other big Original Screenplay contender, Christopher Nolan's Inception, without much standing in its way. Unfortunately, this does little to clarify the O. Screenplay race, since Speech wasn't in competition here. So who's really the frontrunner? Seidler's script may have picked up more awards, but Nolan has the advantage of being a previously nominated writer and director, and some may feel that he's overdue for actual recognition. And since Nolan missed out on a Best Director nomination, sympathy votes could flow his way from his fans in the AMPAS voting body.

SAG Winners: More "King's Speech" love

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a new front-runner, and its name is The King's Oscar Bait. In addition to scoring Best Actor in a Leading role last night, "King" took home SAG's top award, Best Ensemble Cast. And while the BEC award isn't necessarily the best indicator of what will become Oscar's top pick, the SAG triump comes on the heels of The King's Speech taking top honors at both the Producers' Guild and Directors' Guild Awards, both of which are big indicators. So even though The Social Network has been an obvious front-runner for months now, the last few weeks have shown us that for the first time in four years, the critics and the Academy may finally differ on Oscar night.

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role
Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"
Robert Duvall, "Get Low"
Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"
WINNER: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
James Franco, "127 Hours"

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a leading role
Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"
Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"
WINNER: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Hilary Swank, "Conviction"

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a supporting role
WINNER: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"
Jeremy Renner, "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"
Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a supporting role
Amy Adams, "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"
Mila Kunis, "Black Swan"
WINNER: Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"
Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"

Outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture
"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"The Kids Are All Right"
WINNER: "The King's Speech"
"The Social Network"

TELEVISION

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a drama series
WINNER: Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire"
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"
Hugh Laurie, "House M.D."

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a drama series
Glenn Close, "Damages"
Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU"
WINNER: Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a comedy series
WINNER: Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"
Steve Carell, "The Office"
Chris Colfer, "Glee"
Ed O'Neill, "Modern Family"

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a comedy series
Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"
Tina Fey, "30 Rock"
Jane Lynch, "Glee"
Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family"
WINNER: Betty White, "Hot in Cleveland"

Outstanding performance by an ensemble in a drama series
WINNER: "Boardwalk Empire"
"The Closer"
"Dexter"
"The Good Wife"
"Mad Men"

Outstanding performance by an ensemble in a comedy series
"30 Rock"
"Glee"
"Hot in Cleveland"
WINNER: "Modern Family"
"The Office"

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a television movie or miniseries
John Goodman, "You Don't Know Jack"
WINNER: Al Pacino, "You Don't Know Jack"
Dennis Quaid, "The Special Relationship"
Edgar Ramirez, "Carlos"
Patrick Stewart, "Macbeth"

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a television movie or Miniseries
WINNER: Claire Danes, "Temple Grandin"
Catherine O'Hara, "Temple Grandin"
Julia Ormond , "Temple Grandin"
Winona Ryder, "When Love Is Not Enough: The Lois Wilson Story"
Susan Sarandon, "You Don't Know Jack

"

Tom Hooper wins the DGA...

At last night's DGA awards, The King's Speech's Tom Hooper took home the guild's best director award, giving this awards season a whole new sense of uncertainty. The DGA has a stellar track record of matching up with the Oscars, which could be bad news for David Fincher and The Social Network. Are we finally heading for the first major Oscar Best Picture upset since Crash?

For months, Hooper's film was talked about as the sort of old-fashioned type of work that would easily score a bucket-load of nominations, but walk away with few trophies come Oscar night. But in the past few weeks all of that has started to change. Sure, The Social Network scored the Golden Globe, but if you take a look at the GG's for the past few years, it's not the best sign. Recent Globe BP-Drama winners include Avatar, Slumdog Millionaire, Atonement, Babel, Brokeback Mountain, The Aviator, only one of which won best picture (Slumdog).

And even though The Social Network completely dominated the tidal wave of critics awards like The Hurt Locker, Slumdog, and No Country for Old Men, it didn't lead the way with Oscar nominations (THL and NCFOM were tied and Slumdog was #2 in its year). The Social Network score 8 nominations, but Andrew Garfield was missing in Supporting Actor and The King's Speech scored an astounding 12 nominations, which vaults it into a select group of nominated films. Hooper's DGA win either means that The King's Speech has Best Picture and Director locked up, or that this will be only the 7th time that the DGA and AMPAS have differed. Either way, expect February 27th to be a bloodbath between Speech and Social, with Black Swan, The Fighter, and Inception claiming the left overs.

Producers Guild of America shakes things up...in one category

People often write about how the glut of critics awards all but kills the suspense of awards season, and I'm inclined to agree. Even when my favorite film of the year sweeps nearly every city/grouping of critics and most of the televised shows (The Hurt Locker, No Country for Old Men), it's almost disappointing. Not content to join the chorus of love for The Social Network, the PGA announced its winners today, with Tom Hooper's The King's Speech coming out on top.

"B-b-bring it, Zuckerberg."

This is a big push forward for the film, which had lost a little steam (Colin Firth aside) as The Social Network's path of domination began. It also reinforces the status of the film as the biggest potential spoiler of TSN's best picture chances. After all, many, if not all, of AMPAS' members belong to one of the guilds, which means that The King's Speech has a good chunk of the PGA in its graces, even if the votes were spread among 10 films. For a look at the rest of the winners and nominees, continue reading:

Feature Film
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
***The King's Speech***
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Animated Film
Despicable Me
How To Train Your Dragon
***Toy Story 3***

Feature Film
Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer
Earth Made of Glass
Inside Job
Smash His Camera
The Tillman Story
***Waiting for Superman***

Long-Form Televison
Agatha Christie's Poirot: Murder on the Orient Express (#12.4)
***The Pacific*
The Pillars of the Earth
Temple Grandin
You Don't Know Jack

Episodic Television - Comedy
30 Rock
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Glee
***Modern Family***
The Office

Episodic Television - Drama
Breaking Bad
Dexter
LOST
***Mad Men***
True Blood

Non-Fiction Television
Anthony Bourdain: No Reservations
***Deadliest Catch: Crab Fishing in Alaska***
Intervention
Undercover Boss

Live Entertainment/Competition Television
The Amazing Race
***The Colbert Report***
Project Runway
Real Time with Bill Maher
Top Chef

Director's Guild of America Nominations

Possibly one of the most important indicators of which way the Oscars will swing (don't ask me; ask them), the DGA awards have an eerily strong track record of matching up with AMPAS' choice for Best Director. In over seven decades of existence, the DGA's winner (to be announced on Jan. 29th) has matched up with AMPAS save for 6 years, the most recent of which was in 2002. So unless 2010 is going to be a year for an upset, here's a look at the likely nominees for Best Director, one of whom will likely win on February 27th:

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

David Fincher, The Social Network

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Christopher Nolan, Inception

David O. Russell, The Fighter

Nothing really surprising in this line-up, although part of me thought that O. Russell or Hooper might get snubbed in place of someone like the Coens. As for the win, Fincher pretty much has this locked up based on how awards season has gone so far. Then again, 2010 could go the route of 2009, with the real front-runners not emerging until the televised awards shows like this Sunday's Golden Globes, which was where Sandra Bullock began her path to Oscar glory.

Writers Guild of America Nominees

The full list of nominees: WGA

Original Screenplay:

Black Swan: Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, John J. McLaughlin

The Fighter: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson, Keith Dorrington

Inception: Christopher Nolan

The Kids Are All Right: Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko

Please Give: Nicole Holofcner

Even though it probably made it in here only because of the large number of 2010 screenplays deemed ineligible, the nomination for Please Give is absolutely fantastic. Does it have a chance of winning? Not at all; the nomination is its reward. As for who wins, it's probably between Inception and The Kids Are All Right. With The Social Network sweeping critics awards (who usually don't distinguish between original and adapted), the original category has no clear front-runner. When the WGA announces its winners, the original screenplay race could finally become a little less foggy.

Adapted Screenplay:

127 Hours: Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy

I Love You Phillip Morris: Glenn Ficarra, John Requa

The Social Network: Aaron Sorkin

The Town: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig, Aaron Stockard

True Grit: Joel and Ethan Coen

Like Please Give, Phillip Morris should thank its lucky stars that so many screenplays from heavy hitters were deemed ineligible (including Toy Story 3). A real shame that Rabbit Hole's painfully honest script was left out here (last I checked it was eligible). Apparently Nicole Kidman's performance is going to be the only way that film is recognized by the Academy, unless they surprise us. Not that it matters, since Aaron Sorkin is unstoppable.

The Producers Guild of America Nominees and the mystery of the 10th slot

This morning brought the announcement of the PGA nominations, and while their Best Picture lineup (I could have sworn that they stuck with 5 nominees, but apparently not), while mostly predictable, also brings up a persistent question: What film is going to occupy the last slot in AMPAS' Best Picture roster? Here's a look at the PGA's picks for 2010...

Best Picture
127 Hours Danny Boyle, Christian Colson
Black Swan Scott Franklin, Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver
Inception Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
The Fighter David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg
The Kids Are All Right Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray
The King's Speech Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin
The Social Network Dana Brunetti, Cean Chaffin, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin
The Town Basil Iwanyk, Graham King
Toy Story 3 Darla K. Anderson
True Grit Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin

Everything on here makes perfect sense, and matches up note-for-note with countless critics groups across the country. There's only one exception: Ben Affleck's The Town over Debra Granik's Winter's Bone. Overall, Granik's Ozarks tale has garnered more awards attention and landed on more top 10 lists than Affleck's Boston-set cops and robbers thriller, so I'm a little surprised that it would show up here, of all places. As with any given year, there are always more films competing for Best Picture than there are nomination slots, but 2010 seems to be close. 2009 gave us roughly 12 or 13 films closely vying for 10 slots, but 2010 really comes down to 11. And while Winter's Bone may have received more attention thus far in awards season, this snub by the PGA is a sudden reminder that perhaps the film isn't as big of a contender as was once thought.

On another note, the inclusion of 127 Hours is a big help for Boyle's latest. The film had been slipping both in awards traction and at the (indie) box office, and star James Franco has been all but crushed by Colin Firth in terms of acting awards for weeks now. The real question now, though, is where do the likely candidates for Best Picture stand now? Here's my take on the likelihood of nominations for the top 10 (and for once, I'm making predictions that are *gasp* ranked)

**Side note: for the rest of the PGA nominations, go HERE

Top Tier:

The Social Network

The King's Speech

Black Swan

Inception

Middle Tier:

Toy Story 3

The Fighter

The Kids Are All Right

True Grit

Bottom Tier:

127 Hours

Winter's Bone

2010 SAG Nominees + Delayed Reactions

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:

• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King's Speech
• The Social Network

I was worried that Black Swan would miss here. Everything else is pretty expected.

Outstanding Actor in a Leading Role:

• Jeff Bridges - True Grit
• Robert Duvall - Get Low
• Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
• Colin Firth - The King's Speech
• James Franco - 127 Hours

Bridges makes a comeback after the surprise sub at the Globes (along with Duvall). The real question though, is who among the three front-runners is going to take this. Eisenberg has fared better than I ever thought he would, and with Mark Zuckerberg having just been named as Time's Person of the Year, they might just swing his way over the One Man Show and the Royalty Performance.

Outstanding Actress in a Leading Role:

• Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
• Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
• Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
• Natalie Portman - Black Swan
• Hilary Swank - Conviction

Uh, hi there Hilary Swank, really didn't expect to see you here along with the other four and WAIT A MINUTE. Julianne Moore? Ms. Moore? Are you out there?...oh. Well that's awkward.

Outstanding Actor in a Supporting Role:

• Christian Bale - The Fighter
• John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
• Jeremy Renner - The Town
• Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
• Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech

Jeremy Renner just doesn't seem to want to go away. Don't get me wrong, I like the guy, but the script for The Town gave him nothing to do except talk "tough." And while we're on the subject of one-note performances, hey there, John Hawkwaes; it's nice to see that glowering scored you a nomination for a certain overrated indie. But the real surprise here is that Ruffalo got in while co-star Moore was left in the dust, especially since the reverse happened at the Globes. Not that it matters; congratulations Christian Bale/Geoffrey Rush.

Outstanding Actress in a Supporting Role:

• Amy Adams - The Fighter
• Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
• Mila Kunis - Black Swan
• Melissa Leo - The Fighter
• Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit

I don't like seeing Jacki Weaver snubbed here at all. If she doesn't have the actors' brach behind her, it could mean trouble ahead, regardless of the critics' love and the surprise Globe nom. Interesting to see Steinfeld score here (apparently it's a case of category fraud), along with Kunis. Lastly, I guess it's officially time to say "goodbye" to Dianne Wiest and Aaron Eckhart's Oscar chances. It's really a shame, especially for Mr. Eckhart (more on him and Rabbit Hole later today).

For the rest of the nominees (for TV/mini-series) go HERE.

Costume Designers Guild Winners

And once again, the front runner for this award is yet another (in the words of In the Loop) "Regency f*cking costume drama". It's starting to become tiresome, actually; there are other time periods worth rewarding with the Oscar other than the 17 and 1800s. An upset on March 7th won't happen, but I reeeeeally wish it would.

Source: ???

LOS ANGELES – "The Young Victoria," "Crazy Heart" and "The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus" won the top feature prizes Thursday evening at the 12th annual Costume Designers Guild Awards.

Sandy Powell won for excellence in period film for "Victoria," Doug Hall earned the honor in contemporary film for "Crazy Heart" and Monique Prudhomme took home the fantasy award for "Doctor Parnassus."

On the television side, Lou Eyrich won for contemporary television series for "Glee," Janie Bryant won for period/fantasy series for "Mad Men" and Catherine Marie Thomas was the recipient for TV movie or miniseries for "Grey Gardens."

Casey Storm earned the award for commercial costume design for a milk ad, "Milkquarious."

Five honorary awards were presented during the gala hosted by Parker Posey at the Beverly Hilton Hotel: Director Rob Marshall received the distinguished collaborator award, Emily Blunt won the Swarovski Award, Sandy Powell won the Lacoste career achievement award in film, Michael Travis received the career achievement award in television and the late Emmy Award-winning costume designer Robert Turturice was inducted into the guild's Hall of Fame.

Writers Guild of America Winners! [UPDATED]

Winners are in blue.

Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker (2008): Mark Boal
(500) Days of Summer (2009): Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
Avatar (2009): James Cameron
The Hangover (2009): Jon Lucas, Scott Moore
A Serious Man (2009): Ethan Coen, Joel Coen

Adapted Screenplay
Up in the Air (2009/I): Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner
Crazy Heart (2009): Scott Cooper
Julie & Julia (2009): Nora Ephron
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Geoffrey Fletcher
Star Trek (2009): Roberto Orci, Alex Kurtzman

Documentary Screenplay
The Cove (2009): Mark Monroe
Against the Tide: Richard Trank
Capitalism: A Love Story (2009): Michael Moore
Earth Days (2009): Robert Stone
Good Hair (2009): Chris Rock, Jeff Stilson, Lance Crouther, Chuck Sklar
Soundtrack for a Revolution (2009): Bill Guttentag, Dan Sturman

Dramatic Series
"Mad Men" (2007)
"Breaking Bad" (2008)
"Dexter" (2006)
"Friday Night Lights" (2006)
"Lost" (2004)

Comedy Series
"30 Rock" (2006)
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" (2000)
"Glee" (2009)
"Modern Family" (2009)
"The Office" (2005)

New Series
"Modern Family" (2009)
"Glee" (2009)
"The Good Wife" (2009)
"Hung" (2009)
"Nurse Jackie" (2009)

Comedy/Variety Series
"Saturday Night Live" (1975) (TIE)
"The Daily Show" (1996)
"The Colbert Report" (2005)
"Real Time with Bill Maher" (2003)
"The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien" (2009)

Episodic Drama (winner?)
"House M.D." (2004): Russel Friend, Garrett Lerner, David Foster, David Shore("Broken, Part 1 and Part 2")
"Breaking Bad" (2008): John Shiban("Phoenix")
"Big Love" (2006): Melanie Marnich("Come, Ye Saints")
"Mad Men" (2007): Brett Johnson, Matthew Weiner("The Grown-Ups")
"Mad Men" (2007): Robin Veith, Matthew Weiner("Guy Walks into an Advertising Agency")
"True Blood" (2008): Nancy Oliver("I Will Rise Up")

Episodic Comedy
"30 Rock" (2006): Robert Carlock("Apollo, Apollo") (TIE)
"Modern Family" (2009): Steven Levitan, Christopher Lloyd("Pilot")
"30 Rock" (2006): Matt Hubbard("Reunion")
"Eastbound & Down" (2009): Shawn Harwell, Jody Hill, Danny McBride("Chapter 1")
"The Office" (2005): Charlie Grandy("Broke")
"The Office" (2005): Paul Lieberstein("Gossip")

Long Form - Original
Georgia O'Keeffe (2009) (TV): Michael Cristofer
Grey Gardens (2009) (TV): Michael Sucsy, Patricia Rozema
Pedro (2008): Dustin Lance Black, Paris Barclay

Long Form - Adaptation
Taking Chance (2009) (TV): Michael Strobl, Ross Katz
America (2009) (TV): Joyce Eliason, Rosie O'Donnell

Animation
"The Simpsons: Waiting for Disaster," Joel H. Cohen
Other nominees not listed here

The biggest casualties of Awards Season 2009

It happens every year, and it always stings: some film, performance, or artistic/technical aspect gets horrendously snubbed, not just by the Academy and the HFPA, but the critics awards as well. Why does it happen? A number of reasons, but the key factor is usually the strength of a film's campaign, which is of course dependent on a studio's confidence in it, and the amount of money it is willing to give. So the question is, who/what got the worst overall snubbing this awards season? Sadly, in what is revealing itself to be one of the stronger years of the past decade, quite a lot.

The Victims: Best Picture

A Single Man: Was the Weinstein Company only confident enough in Colin Firth that they decided to totally drop the ball on A Single Man? It's the second best of the their "Big 4" (behind Basterds, which made it), and with enough campaigning this beautiful little film should have been able to sneak into the Academy's Top 10. Sadly that's not the case, and Firth is the film's sole Oscar nominee, leaving the film, Tom Ford's direction, the impeccable production values, and that gorgeous score in the dust. My guess is that it was too "small" for most, compared to the likes of and Inglourious Basterds and Nine. Still doesn't explain the artistic snubbing, though.

• Cause of Death: Lack of confidence

In the Loop: It did manage a screenplay nomination, thank goodness, but it's a real shame that this hysterical ensemble farce couldn't have gone further. All it really needed was a strong enough campaign. With the 10 BP nominees, AMPAS likely would have been more open to letting a comedy in, and one so acclaimed as Ianucci's film would have been a great addition. Alas, the studio, for whatever reason, didn't feel like pushing the film hard enough.

• Cause of Death: Lack of campaign

The White Ribbon: It's always nice when foreign films get nominated for Best Picture, and it would have been amazing if Michael Haneke's Palme D'Or winner could have made it. The film is challenging, certainly, but isn't that something that is often praised in foreign films (and sometimes based in English-language films...oddly). At the very least the could have nominated Michael Haneke for his superb direction...but apparently AMPAS just wasn't terribly keen on the foreign films this year. Oh well, at least it managed to get a cinematography nomination.

• Cause of Death: Foreign film bias
  

Best Actor:

Sam Rockwell, Moon: Arriving around roughly the same time as The Hurt Locker, Duncan Jones' Moon should have at the very least been in the running for Best Actor. Aside from Kevin Spacey's voice, the whole film was a one-man show from Rockwell, and he pulled it off masterfully, giving one of the best male performances of the year. So what happened? Most likely the studio had bigger films it wanted to push, despite the stellar reviews for Rockwell and the film. Plus, Rockwell plays dual roles, which seems like something that would grab the Academy's attention. That is, after their attention was brought to the film in the first place by any semblance of a campaign...

• Cause of Death: Studio neglect

Viggo Mortensen, The Road: At least Colin Firth can be glad that he made it to the nominee list. Poor Mortensen, also in a Weinstein Co. release, was mostly left out in the cold (I think the Houston Critics nominated him...and that's it...). Mortensen was a brilliant choice to play the Man in John Hillcoat's adaptation of Cormac McCarthy's bleak post-apocalyptic masterpiece, but apparently the good-not-great consensus of the film was enough to persuade the cash-strapped Weinsteins to drop the film completely. It's a real shame, because Mortensen's role has all of the suffering and misery that AMPAS loves to reward, and he does it damn well, and has great chemistry with young co-star Kodi Smit-Mcphee.

• Cause of Death: "Good" just doesn't cut it

Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer: This one wasn't a big surprise by any means, especially after he lost the Golden Globe, but it still stings. In a film that could have fallen into the trap of merely focusing on Zooey Deschanel's big blue eyes, Levitt gave a touching, delightful performance that more or less carried the film (along with the screenplay).

• Cause of Death: AMPAS being lame (yep, that's all I've got)

Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man: While it wasn't one of the best performances in a Coen brothers film, and the ensemble as a whole is better than any individual cast members, Stuhlbarg's work deserved a slightly greater degree of recognition this season (I'm still stunned that he was nominated for a Globe, of all awards).

• Cause of Death: Lack of support

Sharlto Copely, District 9: One of the most surprising performances of the year came from one of the most surprising films of the year: Neill Blomkamp's District 9. While I'm thrilled that the film is up for Picture, Editing, Adapted Screenplay, and Visual Effects, it's a shame that AMPAS couldn't have gone the unconventional route and picked Copely for Best Actor over the likes of Morgan Freeman. What could have been an empty shell of a role becomes a compelling character, one who you want to punch in the face at first, but grow to like and root for. He never becomes a saint, however, keeping Blomkamp's film from being obnoxious or preachy. And all from someone who's never acted before.

• Cause of Death: Lack of support + genre bias

Best Actress:

Tilda Swinton, Julia: I absolutely hated Erick Zonca's Julia. The screenplay bugged the hell out of me, and turned a potentially compelling story into 2 hours and 20 minutes of awkward dialogue and over the top set-ups. That said, the one gem in this often head-bangingly awful film is the lead performance by Tilda Swinton as the titular Julia, who spends most of her mornings stumbling back to her apartment drunk. Even when saddled with clunky dialogue and poor direction, Swinton is captivating from beginning to end. I'm convinced that with a proper campaign she could have been one of the front-runners for Best Actress. The problem, however, lies in two categories. The first is that the film is really, really, really small, not even grossing $1 million at the box office. The second is release confusion; there's debate as to whether the film's Oscar eligibility lies in 2008 or 2009. A shame that two silly factors like this took down one of the best performances of 2009...and/or 2008. Here's hoping that the same fate doesn't befall Ms. Swinton in her upcoming film I am Love.

• Cause of Death: Lack of campaign, box office, timing

Abbie Cornish, Bright Star: Now here's one that really stings. With Swinton there were issues of release timing. That's not the case with Ms. Cornish. The film was clearly released in Oscar season (albeit at the very start) and had A) the reviews and B) the reviews for Cornish's performance. She could have been one of three breakthrough actresses in Oscar's lineup (along with Mulligan and Sidibe). Not only is Cornish wonderful in the role, but she has a great (not to mention real) character to play in Fanny Brawn. She's not some wilting flower, but rather a strong female character who designs her own clothes (and is more financially successful than her love interest) and isn't afraid to trade barbs with the gentlemen (some of them surprisingly humorous). Oh, and she gets a big crying scene. AMPAS, how on earth did you pass this one up!?

• Cause of Death: Lack of campaign, random Academy BS

Best Supporting Actor:

Peter Capaldi, In the Loop: I'm still ecstatic about In the Loop's screenplay nomination, but the film (like last year's In Bruges) deserved so much more, especially for its performances. Stand out recognition in the brilliant ensemble has to go to Capaldi as the hysterically foul-mouthed Malcolm Tucker, almost constantly angry, but not to the point of ridiculousness (even if the film is a satire/farce). Sadly, Capaldi's stellar (and profane) work gets to join the ranks of snubbed comedic performances (and not just by AMPAS; the critics awards almost entirely snubbed him as well).

• Cause of Death: Lack of support, lack of campaign

Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker: Mackie gets the closest thing to an "Oscar clip scene" in Bigelow's top tier war film, but it never feels shameless or manipulative. A large part of this is owed to Mackie's excellent work, which contrasts beautifully with the recklessness of Renner's character. Mackie's face is extremely lean, which draws one's focus to his eyes, and they don't disappoint. It may be a cliche to call eyes the "window to the soul," but in Mackie's case it's entirely true.

• Cause of Death: Constantly on the outside of people's Top 5 in the category

Supporting Actress:

Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces: This is a tricky one to categorize for two reasons. First, Cruz did get a nomination this year, just not for what I consider to be her stronger performance. Second, there's the issue of category confusion. Even though she's the top-billed star, I consider the character supporting because she appears only in (lengthy) flash back sequences, and there's a significant chunk of film left after her arc comes to an end. Regardless, she's marvelous in her latest collaboration with Almodovar, and plays a more interesting role than she does in Nine. Not necessarily a terrible tragedy of awards season, but a shame she couldn't have been recognized for this performance instead.

• Cause of Death: Conflicting films, category confusion

Marion Cotillard, Nine: Now here's a real victim. Easily the best-in-show performer in Rob Marshall's dazzling-yet-flawed musical, Cotillard is where the heart of the film lies. She also does the best job of incorporating her acting into her singing, which is good because she's the only woman in the film to have two songs. The pain, love, and eventual fury is all expressed so beautifully in both word and song, that it's a damn shame to see her go unrecognized all because Harvey Weinstein wanted to push her as lead. It would have been nice for her to get a follow-up nomination just to show that her win wasn't some sort of one-time thing. They better not screw her out of getting to perform "Take it All" on March 7th, or else this is going to really suck.

• Cause of Death: Category confusion

Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds: Another victim of category confusion thanks to the Weinsteins insisting on placing her in the lead category. Laurent 's performance may not have had all of the things that scream "OSCAR!!" but it was a strong, controlled performance, with the highlight of it being her scenes in the projection room in the final chapter, and her eyes-only acting when she eats with Col. Landa, the man who murdered her family. She was never going to be a major player in Awards Season, but she could have at least be a player, if only she hadn't been so wrongly campaigned.

• Cause of Death: Category confusion