The Producers Guild of America Nominees and the mystery of the 10th slot

This morning brought the announcement of the PGA nominations, and while their Best Picture lineup (I could have sworn that they stuck with 5 nominees, but apparently not), while mostly predictable, also brings up a persistent question: What film is going to occupy the last slot in AMPAS' Best Picture roster? Here's a look at the PGA's picks for 2010...

Best Picture
127 Hours Danny Boyle, Christian Colson
Black Swan Scott Franklin, Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver
Inception Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
The Fighter David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg
The Kids Are All Right Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray
The King's Speech Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin
The Social Network Dana Brunetti, Cean Chaffin, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin
The Town Basil Iwanyk, Graham King
Toy Story 3 Darla K. Anderson
True Grit Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin

Everything on here makes perfect sense, and matches up note-for-note with countless critics groups across the country. There's only one exception: Ben Affleck's The Town over Debra Granik's Winter's Bone. Overall, Granik's Ozarks tale has garnered more awards attention and landed on more top 10 lists than Affleck's Boston-set cops and robbers thriller, so I'm a little surprised that it would show up here, of all places. As with any given year, there are always more films competing for Best Picture than there are nomination slots, but 2010 seems to be close. 2009 gave us roughly 12 or 13 films closely vying for 10 slots, but 2010 really comes down to 11. And while Winter's Bone may have received more attention thus far in awards season, this snub by the PGA is a sudden reminder that perhaps the film isn't as big of a contender as was once thought.

On another note, the inclusion of 127 Hours is a big help for Boyle's latest. The film had been slipping both in awards traction and at the (indie) box office, and star James Franco has been all but crushed by Colin Firth in terms of acting awards for weeks now. The real question now, though, is where do the likely candidates for Best Picture stand now? Here's my take on the likelihood of nominations for the top 10 (and for once, I'm making predictions that are *gasp* ranked)

**Side note: for the rest of the PGA nominations, go HERE

Top Tier:

The Social Network

The King's Speech

Black Swan

Inception

Middle Tier:

Toy Story 3

The Fighter

The Kids Are All Right

True Grit

Bottom Tier:

127 Hours

Winter's Bone