Bravo Lionsgate Studios...Bravo!

Why ABC's Oscar Telecast Will Go On: Lionsgate
Without the benefit of press release or lofty pronouncement from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, I'm pretty sure I can now say the following with near-absolute certainty:

ABC's Feb. 24 telecast of the 2008 Oscars telecast from the Kodak theater will go forward as scheduled, even if the writers strike remains in force.

Here's why: Yesterday's agreement between Lionsgate Entertainment and the Writers Guild of America.

Until now, I've pretty much paid scant attention to these scattered - and seemingly small - WGA/small studio side-deals. Reason: They're SMALL. Yes, the deal with Worldwide Pants got "Late Show with David Letterman" back on the air with writers, but the deal with the Weinstein Co. was insignificant because the Weinstein guys aren't tied to Miramax anymore, so they're hardly major players. WGA also secured deals with Tom Cruise's United Artists, Spyglass Entertainment, MRC, Jackson Bites, Mandate Films, and Sidney Kimmel Entertainment. Nice, but again - nothing earth-shattering.

But given Hollywood's intricate and often hidden links, both the Lionsgate and Mandate deals effectively mean that the WGA can no longer pull a Golden Globes on the Oscars telecast. (What's a "Golden Globe?" That's a showbiz fate worse than death - in which a network is forced to scrap its profitable awards telecast because writers and actors have threatened to boycott, and you, the network, are then forced to mount a show anchored by second-rate talent, which will be the butt of industry jokes and worse, get terrible ratings.)

But Lionsgate is massively different. Reason: It'll will have significant representation at this year's awards: Julie Christie got a nod for Lionsgate's "Away from Her" (which also got a best adapted screenplay nod; Lionsgate also got nods for "3:10 to Yuma" and "Sicko" - best doc feature.) This is the clincher, though - Mandate, owned by Lionsgate, is one of the production company's behind "Juno."

Oscar noms - you don't need to be reminded - are money in the bank for producers, but the REAL pot of gold lies at the end of the Oscars telecast; a win is a huge boost to both your theatrical and DVD sales.

Why would the WGA penalize the company it just signed a pact with - Lionsgate - by picketing the Oscars, and forcing the Screen Actors Guild to do same? It wouldn't.

Until now, these WGA side-deals would appear to carry little risk for the WGA, and best of all, they put writers back to work. But they also undercut the WGA's hand. Threatening the Oscars' telecast is certainly one key reason why the producers agreed to get back to the bargaining table. But if this is a highstakes poker game - it is - the Lionsgate deal may now mean the WGA is holding only a pair of deuces.