One of the biggest events of awards season, the Golden Globes will be coming to us tonight at 8 (eastern). And even with the recent glut of critics awards that have spoiled most of the categories for us already, the Globes always save room for an upset or two. And of course, the general drunkenness of the nominees (well, except for Natalie Portman) should make for a more entertaining set of acceptance speeches than we were treated to two nights ago. Hopefully MC Ricky Gervais will make a good number of jokes about the, er, lackluster roster for Musical/Comedy. Here's my take on who/what will, and should take home a Globe tonight.
** In case you forgot, the Nominees are...
Best Picture - Drama:
Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: Black Swan
Nothing against Fincher's Facebook tale; it's one of my favorites of 2010, actually. However, Darren Aronofsky's ballet thriller soared like nothing else from the last 12 months did. It builds gradually, until it finally unleashes its full madness in the last act, where it soars to rapturous heights. That said, this is a category where I would have no problem with any of the nominees winning, even though some aren't in my current top 10. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for our next category...
Best Picture - Comedy or Musical:
Will and Should Win: The Kids Are All Right
It's not a film that I was crazy about, but when you look at its competition, this category is pretty bleak. So many good films could have been nominated here, but instead we have the garish Alice in Wonderland and The Tourist, a film whose pulse flat-lined as the opening credits played out. Unless the HFPA decides to completely lose their collective minds, Lisa Cholodenko's film will take this.
Will Win: David Fincher - The Social Network
Should Win: Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
While Fincher's contributions to his film are strong, they've often been overshadowed by the strength of the screenplay, and there's a reason for that. Black Swan, on the other hand, succeeds because of how Aronofsky's brings his nightmarish vision to life with such precision. As far as threats go, Tom Hooper or Christopher Nolan (who might have some sympathy after being snubbed for The Dark Knight) each have a chance, but it's doubtful.
Best Actor - Drama:
Will and Should Win: Colin Firth - The King's Speech
It's the sort of performance that's practically written to win awards (real-life royalty + disability = awards wet dream), but here's a case of someone who really deserves it. Granted, he's in spectacular company, and Eisenberg, Franco, or Gosling (a Blue Valentine review later today or tomorrow) would certainly be worthy winners. Wahlberg is good, but not necessarily outstanding (that, and his cast mates outshine him everywhere), and there are others who are more deserving (this guy). There's a chance that the HFPA will pull a shocker and pick Eisenberg or Franco, but Firth should take this without so much as a hiccup (or a stutter, for that matter).
Best Actress - Drama:
Will Win: Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Should Win: Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Here's a rather strange set of nominees. One is the star of an acclaimed film that has exceeded expectations and has taken in $72 million (on a $13 million budget). Two star in acclaimed, often bleak films that are hovering around the $1 million range (one over, one under). One was in an indie hit over the summer and has, surprisingly, lost buzz over the past few weeks. And one is in a movie that has barely seen a theatrical release. And even though Halle Berry has no shot in hell at winning, it's still puzzling to see her here since the film hasn't exactly received much of a campaign. Not that it matters, since Portman will continue her near-sweep (especially since Benning isn't in this category). Kidman and Williams (Kidman moreso; HFPA likes her) have slim chances for their beautiful, raw performances, but they won't be able to stop Portman.
Best Actor - Comedy or Musical:
Will Win: Johnny Depp - Alice in Wonderland
I haven't seen Barney's Version or Casino Jack, but I can only hope that Paul Giamatti and Kevin Spacey give remotely enjoyable performances, because otherwise this category really is a trainwreck. Depp is nominated for two of the worst performances of his career, and to think that the film's success could propel him to a second Golden Globe win isn't pleasant. Jake Gyllenhaal's work in Love and Other Drugs wasn't necessarily special, but he was charming and had good chemistry with co-star Anne Hathaway. This is a dangerous thing to say, but I'd rather see one of the performances I haven't seen take this, because aside from Gyllenhaal's looks/charm, there's nothing worth rewarding among the others.
Best Actress - Comedy or Musical:
Will Win: Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Should Win: Everyone except Angelina Jolie
None of the performances would place in my top 10 for actresses (maybe Stone...maybe), but Stone, Bening, Moore, and Hathaway at least gave performances. Jolie is simply here for being herself, because that's essentially what she did in The Tourist; she was pretty and mysterious(ish), and that's about it. At least, unlike the C/M men, this category has an 80% chance of picking a decent winner.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will and Should Win: Christian Bale - The Fighter
Possibly the best performance of the year (certainly the most lively), Bale is a deserving front runner. Rush is his closest competition, and even he is miles and miles behind.
Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Should Win: Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom
This is the one acting category with some genuine suspense. Leo has won the most awards and has a strong shot at taking this, and yet she doesn't feel as secure like Bale, Portman, or Firth do. She could easily lose to her co-star Amy Adams, who has been nominated more times and has yet to win, well, anything. Weaver has her share of wins, and frankly I'm still surprised that the HFPA nominated her while SAG didn't. Either she got in because she's somehow going to take this, or she's one of those lucky-to-even-be-there nominees, which is a shame, considering how good her performance (and the film it's part of) is.
Will and Should Win: Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network
Possibly the screenplay of the year, and for good reason. I'd be shocked if another name was read after the envelope is opened.
Best Animated Film:
Will and Should Win: Toy Story 3
There's room for an upset from either Dragon or The Illusionist, but not much. The Pixar train should keep on rolling without interruption.
Best Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: I am Love
Should Win: N/A
Even if I end up hating the winner, just please let it be something other than this overrated, thinly written, overblown mess/waste of Tilda Swinton.
Best Original Song:
Will and Should Win: "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" - Burlesque
Best Original Score:
Will Win: Hans Zimmer - Inception
Should Win: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross - The Social Network