Going into the second year of the Academy's revival of the 10 Best Picture Nominees rule, picking Best Director suddenly becomes a much less easy, much more interesting category to figure out. Like any of the predictions I'll be making over the coming days, nothing is certain, but here's where I'd (timidly) wager this category stands as of now:
Best Director:
1. Terrence Malick - Tree of Life
Why: A celebrated director finally returning after the not-so-celebrated The New World (2005)- Why: The film's mix of intimate character drama and epic time lines, not to mention Malick's typical visual poetry, could go a long way with AMPAS
- Why Not: The Thin Red Line aside, they've never embraced him before
2. Clint Eastwood - Hereafter
Why: Another year, another Eastwood attempt at the return to Oscar glory that has eluded him ever since Letters from Iwo Jima (2006)- Why: Supernatural drama + Clint's AMPAS-friendly approach towards tragedy could go over really well
- Why Not: It may go the route of Changeling, Gran Torino, and Invictus; maybe Eastwood's love affair with AMPAS is over
3. Peter Weir - The Way Back
Why: World War II subject matter- Why: A potential return to form for Weir
- Why Not: No early buzz, the film could either tank or get reception on par with Defiance
4. Sofia Coppola - Somewhere
Why: AMPAS loved Lost in Translation, and if this similarly themed film gets similar reception, she stands a strong chance- Why: There's usually room for one director whose film is an actors' piece
- Why Not: It could either be another Marie Antoinette, or simply get swallowed up by flashier competition
5. Christopher Nolan - Inception
Why: This could finally be Nolan's year to grab a director nomination (he was nominated previously for Memento's screenplay)- Why: If Nolan's film successfully pulls off both mind-games and big action thrills with equal skill (not to mention that it's an original screenplay) , they'll want to at least throw him a nomination
- Why Not: The film could under-perform commercially or critically
- Why Not: The film may only get the Best Picture nomination
Other Possibilities: Julian Schnabel - Miral, Lee Unkrich - Toy Story 3, Tony Goldwyn - Conviction, Ben Affleck - The Town, Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan, Mike Leigh - Another Year, David Fincher - The Social Network, Joel and Ethan Coen - True Grit, David O. Russell - The Fighter, Lisa Cholodenko - The Kids Are All Right, John Cameron Mitchell - Rabbit Hole, Ed Zwick - Love and Other Drugs, Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
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