Where We Stand: Best Actor and Best Actress

Ah, the acting awards. If ever there was a category (make that 4) for which early predictions were truly foolish, it's this. From the on-paper-only early front runners who burn out, to the indie hopefuls whose chances never materialize, to the one or two critical favorites who get snubbed (Sally motherf_cking Hawkins, Academy) even after they win a major award, to the out-of-left-field winners (Ms. Bullock), predicting the acting categories is a bigger mess than this sentence. So, without setting anything in stone, and keeping in mind what recent trends have been, who are our strongest candidates for Leading Man and Lady? Let's take a look.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

1. Robert Duvall - Get Low

• Why: The Veteran Card
• Why: Strong buzz for his performance from Toronto last year
• Why Not: He already has one, so he's not exactly "overdue"
• Why Not: The movie may not be well liked enough for him to be recognized

2. Javier Bardem - Biutiful

• Why: Generally fantastic reviews out of Cannes
• Why: Dark, weighty subject material
• Why: Another chance to embrace him in Lead
• Why Not: He won Best Actor at Cannes. With the recent exception of Christoph Waltz, winning a Cannes award and an Oscar don't usually go hand-in-hand

3. Matt Damon - Hereafter

• Why: A well-liked, respected actor who has never won an Oscar for acting
• Why: Directed by Clint Eastwood
• Why Not: Clint got him nominated last year despite many finding nothing special in the performance; instead of a make-up nomination, he might get a make-up snub

4. Stephen Dorff - Somewhere

• Why: Actor playing an actor; Hollywood loves characters that are its own people
• Why: If the reviews are good enough, he'll be the "comeback" actor of the year, a la Mickey Rourke in 2008
• Why: Even if the film does get raves, the performance may be too low-key for AMPAS, or simply not strong enough to get noticed over other contenders

5. Colin Firth - The King's Speech

• Why: He finally made his Academy breakthrough last year, and could follow-through with a one-two punch that lands him a win this time around (ex: Nicole Kidman; Moulin Rouge! + The Hours)
• Why: Probably plenty of goodwill left over from A Single Man last year
• Why: Period piece AND playing a historical figure
• Why Not: Like most contenders, no word on the film or his performance so far

Other Contenders: Brad Pitt - Tree of Life, Colin Farrell - The Way Back, Leonardo DiCaprio - Inception/Shutter Island, Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine, Jake Gyllenhaal - Love and Other Drugs, Aaron Eckhart - Rabbit Hole, Mark Wahlberg - The Fighter, Johnny Depp - The Rum Diary, Vincent Cassel - Black Swan

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

1. Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right

• Why: She's lost twice to the same person (Hillary Swank) for critically hailed turns
• Why: Has strong reviews AND is said to be more likely to be campaigned as lead (over Julianne Moore)
• Why Not: While it's not impossible (Cotillard and Christie in 2007), a mid-summer release doesn't exactly help one's chances with AMPAS, even if the critics awards go nuts over her

2. Hillary Swank - Conviction

• Why: Despite Amelia, Swank in drama mode is always a potential threat
• Why: True story/real and sympathetic (crusade for justice!) character
• Why Not: Maybe it's Amelia: Part II

3. Robin Wright - The Conspirator

• Why: Real person in a historical drama
• Why: Even if reactions to her performance aren't GREAT, if the film is loved by AMPAS, she could be swept along
• Why Not: Could be another Lions for Lambs

4. Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

• Why: In addition to nominated work in Brokeback Mountain, she's been doing strong work in films like Wendy and Lucy and this year's Shutter Island
• Why: She's got Weinstein behind her
• Why: Good reviews for the performance at both Sundance and Cannes
• Why Not: Film might be too small

5. Hiam Abbass - Miral

• Why: Playing a real person in a true story regarding the Israel/Palestine conflict
• Why: Apparently Harvey Weinstein has made the film his #1 Oscar priority for 2010 (at least for now)
• Why Not: Might be a foreign language performance, which doesn't bode well unless AMPAS goes absolutely nuts over the film and/or critics go nuts over the performance
• Why Not: She's a (Oscar-wise) newcomer, and they may make her wait

Other Contenders: Natalie Portman - Black Swan, Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone, Julianne Moore - The Kids Are All Right, Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole, Helen Mirren - The Tempest, Carey Mulligan - Never Let Me Go, Julia Roberts - Eat, Pray, Love, Diane Lane - Secretariat, Renee Zellweger - My Own Love Song