2013 Oscar Predictions (minus shorts, docs, and techs)

With the Academy Award nominations arriving on January 10th, roughly two weeks earlier than usual, it's time to finally process the deluge of guilds and critics awards to try and churn out some half-decent predictions. The last major group, The BAFTAs, announced their nominees this morning, leaving only the Academy (tomorrow also marks the first televised award show: the Critics Choice Awards). As with the past few years (since the Best Picture field was widened to 10, and then made more fluid to allow between five and 10 nominees), there are plenty of sure bets, yet most categories have room for surprise nominees, left-field picks, and major snubs. Below is, to the best of my ability, a glimpse at what films and names will be read off tomorrow morning by Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone (barring the short films and technical categories).

Best Picture:
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Amour

Most Vulnerable: Amour (by a huge margin)
Alternates: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom, Django Unchained, The Master

Best Director:
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck - Argo
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
Tom Hooper - Les Miserables

Most Vulnerable: Lee or Hooper
Alternates: Michael Haneke (Amour), Quentin Tarantino (Django), David O. Russell (Silver Linings), Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Denzel Washington - Flight
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes - The Sessions

Most Vulnerable: Bradley Cooper
Alternates: Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

Best Actress:
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Naomi Watts - The Impossible
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone

Most Vulnerable: Emmanuelle Riva
Alternates: Helen Mirren (Hitchcock), Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea), Quevenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Best Supporting Actor:
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Alan Arkin - Argo
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook

Most Vulnerable: Robert DeNiro
Alternates: Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Javier Bardem (Skyfall), Eddie Redmayne (Les Miserables), Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained)

Best Supporting Actress:
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Sally Field - Lincoln
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Ann Dowd - Compliance
Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Most Vulnerable: Ann Dowd
Alternates: Amy Adams (The Master), Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy), Maggie Smith (Quartet)

Best Original Screenplay:
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Amour
Flight

Most Vulnerable: Amour
Alternates: Looper, The Master

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Most Vulnerable: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alternates: The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Animated Film:
Frankenweenie
Paranorman
Wreck-It Ralph
Rise of the Guardians
Brave

Best Foreign Language Film:
Amour [Austria]
The Intouchables [France]
A Royal Affair [Denmark]
Kon-Tiki [Norway]
No [Chile]