What the Oscars could look like...

nominees not listed in any order

Best Picture:

1. No Country for Old Men - rave reviews, and the Coen's return to top form make it a decent lock
2. Atonement - not a single bad review and plenty of raves. A sure lock for at least the nomination.
3. American Gangster - Chance of nomination? High. Chance of winning? None. The Academy won't award another gangster epic so soon after The Departed.
4. Charlie Wilson's War - the cast, the book, the director...it could be the surprise "bomb" but that doesn't look too likely
5. The Kite Runner - tough story. Beloved book. timely subject. hmmmmmmmmmm

alternates: There Will Be Blood, Sweeney Todd, Juno, The Savages, In the Valley of Elah, The Assassination of Jesse James, Once, Waitress, The Golden Compass, Beowulf, Lions For Lambs.

Best Director:

1. Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country For old Men
2. Joe Wright - Atonement; just like the film, he's a lock.
3. Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood; he's never been nominated despite some highly praised films. This could be AMPAS' chance to reward him.......with a nomination...
4. Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd; see above
5. Marc Forster - The Kite Runner.

alternates: Adrienne Shelly - Waitress, Paul Haggis - In the Valley of Elah, Andrew Domink - Jesse James, Jason Reitman - Juno

Best Lead Actor:

1. Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood; because he's Daniel Day-Lewis.
   
2. James McAvoy - Atonement; he's the only true "lead" in the whole story and the reviews have been strong.
3. Tom Hanks - Charlie Wilson's War; the Academy loves him.
4. Denzel Washington - American Gangster; The Academy loves him.
5. Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd; another Oscar-less A-lister who could finally be given his dues...

Alternates: Tommy Lee Jones - Elah, Brad Pitt - Jesse James, Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises, Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl

Best Lead Actress:

1. Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose; rave reviews for her performance, but only 2 other actresses have ever won for a performance in a foreign language film. The early release date could hurt her too.
   
2. Ellen Page - Juno; the funny, witty performance.
3. Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age; even with sucky reviews for the film, she still got raves. However, the Academy may not favor her since she can't really bring anything new to the role. She didn't win for the first Elizabeth in 1998, why should she win now?
4. Keira Knightley - Atonement; good reviews for her (maybe she should only work with Joe Wright, since his Pride and Prejudice earned her a first nomination) but she's only in the 2 hour film for about 40 minutes. However, Anthony Hopkins wasn't in Silence of the Lambs that much and still WON for lead, so it could happen.
5. Laura Linney - The Savages; this is just a guess. The fifth slot is waaaaaay open.

Alternates: Helena Bonham Carter - Sweeney Todd, Amy Adams - Enchanted, Halle Berry - Things We Lost in the Fire, Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart, Nicole Kidman - Margot at the Wedding, Julie Christie - Away From Her, Tang Wei - Lust Caution, Keri Russell - Waitress

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Casey Affleck - Jesse James; the raves are non stop and he steals the show from Pitt. The good press for "Gone Baby Gone" isn't hurting him either.
2. Javier Bardem - No Country For Old Men; some have been saying he's the best screen villain since Hannibal Lecter. Based on the trailer, I'd say that's probably true. The raves have been non stop for him and they don't seem to be slowing down.
3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War; he's in 3 "Oscar Bait" films this year, and if they nominate him, it'll be for the "biggie". And who knows, maybe he'll win an Oscar that he actually deserves! Imagine that!
   
4. Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton; because everyone loves a mentally unstable character.
5. Russell Crowe - American Gangster; possible, though so far it seems that Denzel steals the show.

alternates: Paul Dano - There Will Be Blood, Max Von Sydow - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Armin Muehller Stahl - Eastern Promises, Vincent Cassell - Eastern Promises, John Travolta - Hairspray, Alan Rickman - Sweeney Todd, Ethan Hawke - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, Ben Foster - 3:10 to Yuma

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Jennifer Jason-Leigh - Margot at the Wedding; with the film as a whole getting so so reviews, her lead is starting to shrink, but she still has a good chance.
2. Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There; her buzz has only increased since the Venice Film Festival, and if AMPAS wants to snub her for The Golden Age, they'll reward her for this film
3. Saoirse Ronan - Atonement; out of the 3 actresses that play her character, she has gotten the best reviews (even over Vanessa Redgrave). However, AMPAS rarely rewards children, so that could be her downfall.
4. Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton; great reviews, and with Helena Bonham Carter now being pushed as lead, she has a much stronger chance of getting in.
5. Julia Roberts - Charlie Wilson's War; AMPAS may want to reward her return to the big screen. How ever, rumors that Roberts' attempt at a Texas accent fall flat could hurt her.

Alternates: Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone, Romola Garai - Atonement, Jennifer Connelly - Reservation Road, Susan Sarandon - In the Valley of Elah, Nicole Kidman - The Golden Compass.

Original Screenplay:

1. Margot at the Wedding
2. Eastern Promises
3. Michael Clayton
4. The Savages
   
5. Juno/Waitress

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Charlie Wilson's War
2. Atonement
3. No Country For Old Men
4. American Gangster
5. The Kite Runner

Editing:

1. Atonement
   
2. American Gangster
3. Zodiac
4. The Assassination of Jesse James
5. Hot Fuzz (hey, it could happen...)

Costume Design:

1. Elizabeth: The Golden Age
2. The Golden Compass
3. Sweeney Todd
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
5. Love in the Time of Cholera

Cinematography:

1. Elizabeth: The Golden Age
2. The Golden Compass
3. The Assassination of Jesse James
4. Atonement
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

alts: Love in the Time of Cholera, There Will Be Blood, Sweeney Todd, Zodiac, 300, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Across the Universe

Art Direction:

1. Elizabeth: The Golden Age
2. The Golden Compass
3. Sweeney Todd
4. Atonement
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

alts: Love in the Time of Cholera, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, There Will Be Blood, 300, Across the Universe

Best Original Score:

1. Dario Marianelli - Atonement; his Pride and Prejudice score got robbed in 2005. Time for payback. This one's a lock.
2. Alexandre Desplat - The Golden Compass; the closest thing to a lock outside of Atonement.
3. Love in the Time of Cholera
4. Howard Shore - Eastern Promises
5. Hans Zimmer - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End; the hugely popular Pirates theme music has never won or been nominated. This could be AMPAS' chance to make up for the past snubs....

Original Song:

1. Falling Slowly - Once; by the end of the year, this will probably be the only place they can honor this beloved little film...
   
2. La Despedida or Hay Amores by Shakira - Love in the Time of Cholera
3. Come So Far - Hairspray
4. something from Enchanted if the songs are original..
   
5. whatever Idina Menzel sings in the closing credits of Beowulf...

Visual Effects:

1. Transformers; the effects were part of the film's huge buzz, however it has competition in..
   
2. The Golden Compass, which has more complex effects with dozens of daemons running, changing, and reacting along with fighting polar bears, and flying witches, along with some stunning shots of the alternate universe London.
   
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End - even bigger and better than Pirates 2, but they already won for 06.....so it's pretty much out..