Where We Stand: Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Oscar Predictions

It's amazing how much the awards season landscape can change over the course of a few weeks, especially when film festivals are involved. The last few weeks were particularly charged with change. Films and performances received their first reviews, distribution deals were reached, campaign deals sealed, and the races for picture, director, and the acting awards began to finally emerge (if only slightly) from the murk of the first 7.5 months of the year. So, just how much have the front-runners, possibles, and DOA's changed? Here's a (hopefully) better look at what awards season 2010 might bring (excluding Foreign Language, Song, Documentaries, and Short Films):

Note: Categories marked with an '**' are NOT ranked in terms of likelihood (of a nomination).

Best Picture:

1. The King's Speech
2. 127 Hours
3. Toy Story 3
4. Black Swan
5. The Social Network
6. Somewhere
7. The Town
8. The Kids Are All Right
9. Inception
10. The Fighter

Best Director:

1. Danny Boyle - 127 Hours
2. David Fincher - The Social Network
3. Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
4. Sofia Coppola - Somewhere
5. Tom Hooper - The King's Speech

Best Actor:

1. James Franco - 127 Hours
2. Colin Firth - The King's Speech
3. Robert Duvall - Get Low
4. Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine
5. Javier Bardem - Biutiful

Best Actress:

1. Natalie Portman - Black Swan
2. Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
3. Julianne Moore - The Kids Are All Right
4. Lesley Manville - Another Year
5. Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
2. Ed Harris - The Way Back
3. Sam Rockwell - Conviction
4. Christian Bale - The Fighter
5. Vincent Cassell - Black Swan

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Miranda Richardson - Made in Dagenham
2. Dianne Wiest - Rabbit Hole
3. Mila Kunis - Black Swan
4. Elle Fanning - Somewhere
5. Amy Adams - The Fighter

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Another Year
2. The Kids Are All Right
3. The King's Speech
4. Somewhere
5. Inception (it's certainly fading, however)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. The Social Network
2. Toy Story 3
3. The Town
4. 127 Hours
5. Rabbit Hole

Best Editing:

1. 127 Hours
2. Inception
3. The Social Network
4. Toy Story 3
5. The Town

Best Cinematography:

1. 127 Hours
2. Black Swan
3. Inception
4. True Grit
5. Miral

Best Art Direction:

1. Alice in Wonderland
2. The King's Speech
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
4. Black Swan
5. Inception

Best Costume Design:

1. The King's Speech
2. Black Swan
3. Alice in Wonderland
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
5. The Tempest

Best Animated Film:

1. Toy Story 3
2. How to Train Your Dragon
3. The Illusionist

Best Original Score:

1. Never Let Me Go
2. The King's Speech
3. The Social Network
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
5. 127 Hours

Best Visual Effects:

1. Inception
2. Iron Man 2
3. TRON: Legacy
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
5. Alice in Wonderland

Best Sound Editing**:

1. Inception
2. 127 Hours
3. Iron Man 2
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
5. TRON: Legacy

Best Sound Mixing**:

1. Inception
2. TRON: Legacy
3. Salt
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
5. Robin Hood