Sunday, January 15, 2012

Golden Globe Predictions

There are only a few hours remaining before the start of the Golden Globes, in what should be quite the ceremony. Not only is Ricky Gervais back as host, but unlike last year, there's room for upsets aplenty. I'll miss most (if not all) of the show tonight, so before I head out for dinner and a showing of The Book of Mormon (finally!!), I thought I'd throw out my predictions for the major categories of tonight's show.

For a refresher on the nominees, click HERE.

Best Picture - Drama

Will and Should Win: The Descendants

There were better dramas than this year's crop, but from the HFPA's lineup, this is easily the frontrunner, in addition to being the best. Choppy opening aside, it's a well acted and well written slice of American family life that evokes laughs and tears. There's always room for an upset, but of all of the big categories, this one is the closest to a sure thing.

Best Picture - Musical/Comedy

Will and Should Win: The Artist

Another of the easier-to-call categories of tonight, Michel Hazanavicius' silent film should take the crown. It's the closest thing this year's race has to a frontrunner, and barring a shocker upset from blockbuster hit Bridesmaids, here's another one that shouldn't be in danger of losing. Now, let's get to the interesting parts...

Best Director:

Will Win: Alexander Payne - The Descendants OR Martin Scorcese - Hugo

Should Win: Michel Hazanvicius - The Artist

One is a widely hailed director slowly building an impressive resume, the other is a long-respected master. As to who will emerge victorious? It's something of a coin toss at this point. The Descendants has more buzz than Hugo (not to mention that the HFPA loves Clooney), but they may reward Scorcese for the way he used Hugo to showcase his love for cinema's history.

Best Actor - Drama

Will Win: George Clooney - The Descendants

Should Win: Michael Fassbender - Shame

Though Pitt certainly has a chance to win here, Clooney's riding high, seeing as he also has The Ides of March in contention. When it comes to acting, though, The Descendants is the obvious pick, and HFPA will likely honor Hollywood's golden boy in the role that has earned him some of his best reviews to date. Pitt still has a strong chance, however, as he's also had a solid year between Moneyball and The Tree of Life. And then there's Michael Fassbender, who really should win the damn thing, but really ought to be glad he made it this far.

Best Actress - Drama

Will Win: Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady

Should Win: Viola Davis - The Help OR Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin

It was originally predicted that this year's Best Actress race would come down to Streep (gunning for her third Oscar) versus Close (still trying for her first). Yet Close's buzz has faded, while Streep's has suffered little, even though she's no surefire bet. Mara's nomination is her reward, and one could make the same statement about Swinton. Davis, however, could stand a strong chance, and if Streep wins, I'll bet quite a lot that Davis received the second highest amount of votes.

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy

Will and Should Win: Jean Dujardin - The Artist

Ryan Gosling may have had the banner year, but no one really cares that much about Crazy, Stupid Love at this point anymore. Then again, Gosling could slip in as a reward for his films this year along with the general snubbing his excellent work in Blue Valentine was met with. Still, it'll be tough to take down Dujardin, who has not only earned raves (rightfully so), but also has the benefit of starring in a Best Picture heavyweight.

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy

Will Win: Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn

Should Win: Charlize Theron - Young Adult

The performance may not really qualify as comedic, but that shouldn't stop Williams from taking home the trophy. Granted, it's very good work, but compared to Theron or Wiig, it feels like a bit of an unfair advantage. Williams is a mostly dramatic role competing against traditionally comedic performances, and therefore pretty much has this in the bag.

Best Supporting Actor:

Will Win: Albert Brooks - Drive

Should Win: Christopher Plummer - Beginners

I didn't really think that Brooks' momentum would last, but it has, and will likely carry over tonight. That said, all of the men here (except for Jonah Hill) at least have a shot. Tonight will either further cement Brooks' status as the category's frontrunner, or throw a wrench into everything by picking someone else (please, let it be Plummer).

Best Supporting Actress:

Will Win: Octavia Spencer - The Help

Should Win: Jessica Chastain - The Help

In all honesty, this is going to either Spencer or Chastain. The issue is simply deciding which one of the two will receive more votes. Chastain could win for being so good in so many movies, but that could also work against her, seeing as she's only up for the one performance. Spencer's role had people talking about it long before Chastain was even in the conversation, though, which either means that it will hold over, or that the buzz has faded, leaving Chastain the victor. Berenice Bejo still has a shot, and could prove the surprise, but more than likely this is going to one of The Help's ladies.

Best Screenplay:

Will Win: The Descendants

Should Win: The Artist

Best Animated Film:

Will and Should Win: Rango

Best Foreign Language Film:

Will Win: In the Land of Blood and Honey [USA]

Should Win: A Separation [Iran]

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