The Globes, Grammys, Oscars, and Tonys were all months ago, and yet now, at the end of August, the Emmys, the odd man out of awards shows, is finally upon us. I agree with those writer who have pegged the 2000s as a new Golden Age of Television, and despite some terrible snubs from the 09-10 TV season, the Emmy voters made some terrific choices this year. Here's hoping tonight's winners measure up. One thing before we get started: it's easy to forget, but even when it comes to series or performances, the shows usually only submit one or two episodes for consideration, which can sometimes affect a nominee's chances (I've heard that Modern Family's producers made a poor choice for Sofia Vergara, submitting an episode where she does practically nothing). I haven't been able to find a list of submitted episodes (yet), so these predictions are based more on my knowledge and feelings towards the shows and performances as a whole, not on an episode-specific basis.
Outstanding Comedy Series:Curb Your EnthusiasmGleeModern FamilyNurse JackieThe Office30 Rock
Will Win: Glee or Modern Family.
Though 30Rock is still the funniest show on TV when it hits its mark, season 4 took longer than usual to find its groove, and people noticed. Expect the comedy champion's (it has won for its first three seasons) reign to finally end. The question is, what will take its place? Modern Family is more consistently funny and balances its ensemble better, but Glee really has been the "it" show of the season.
Should Win: Modern Family.
Right from the pilot episode, it's been funny, consistent, and known how to use every member of its ensemble to perfection. Some shows take a half season or a full season to really find their groove; Modern Family founds its immediately, with brilliant and hilarious results.Outstanding Drama Series:Breaking BadDexterThe Good WifeLostMad MenTrue Blood
Will Win: Mad Men.
Unlike 30Rock, Mad Men still has a strong shot at keeping its winning streak going (let's hope it doesn't end next year though; season 4 has been amazing so far).
Should Win: Dexter.
As much as it pains me to say it, I'm not sure if season 3 was the best year for Don Draper and crew (though season 3 did have one of the best episodes in the show's history: "Guy Walks Into an Advertising Agency..."); at times it was almost too slow. Season 4 of Showtime's vigilante serial-killer Dexter Morgan, on the other hand, delivered some of the show's strongest moments by far, both in terms of acting (Hall, Carpenter, Lithgow), writing, and story-telling (the Trinity Killer case).
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series:Alec Baldwin - 30RockSteve Carell - The OfficeLarry David - Curb Your EnthusiasmMatthew Morrison - GleeJim Parsons - The Big Bang TheoryTony Shalhoub - Monk
Will Win: Tony Shalhoub.
I'm just glad that this show is finally over. I have nothing against Tony Shaloub, but the same cannot be said for Monk or his performance on the show.
Should Win: Alec Baldwin.
Can he win for the fourth year in a row? It's doubtful, but as part of the pair that holds 30Rock together, he's still fantastic on the show.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series:Kyle Chandler - Friday Night LightsBryan Cranston - Breaking BadMatthew Fox - LostMichael C. Hall - DexterJon Hamm - Mad MenHugh Laurie - House
Will Win: Michael C. Hall or Jon Hamm.
Both have yet to win an Emmy for their acclaimed performances, and this could finally be the year one of them takes home a statue. Between the two, I have a feeling the Emmy voters will pick Hall over the more understated Hamm, but that's far from a bad thing; both are excellent performances.
Should Win: Michael C. Hall.
He's made a serial killer likable and fascinating over and over again, without ever once delving into the obnoxiousness that pervades the character in the source novels.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series:Toni Collette - United States of TaraEdie Falco - Nurse JackieTina Fey - 30RockJulia Louis-Dreyfuss - The New Adventures of Old ChristineLea Michele - GleeAmy Poehler - Parks and Recreation
Will Win: Edie Falco.
The show has received pretty solid support, though the one thing that could lessen her chances: Nurse Jackie is more of a drama with some comedy in it, not the other way around...will the voters notice, or will they only use that as a reason to vote for her?
Should Win: Tina Fey or Amy Poehler.
Two very funny women on two very funny shows. Fey in particular had a great, and she seems to blossom (as an actress) a little more with each passing season.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series:Connie Briton - Friday Night LightsGlenn Close - DamagesMariska Hargitay - Law and Order: SVUJanuary Jones - Mad MenJulianna Margulies - The Good WifeKyra Sedgwick - The Closer
Will Win: Julianna Margulies.
She's practically had this in the bad since the Golden Globes; the show and the role have been a huge comeback for her and people have taken notice.
Should Win: The only one I've seen consistently is Jones, and while she's perfect for Betty Draper, she's extremely limited as an actress (I'm still trying to forget that SNL episode).
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series:Ty Burrell - Modern FamilyChris Colfer - GleeJon Cryer - Two and a Half MenJesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern FamilyNeil Patrick Harris - How I Met Your MotherEric Stonestreet - Modern Family
Will Win: Neil Patrick Harris.
He already has an Emmy this year (for his guest stint on Glee) but Harris has yet to win for HIMYM. The men of Modern Family will likely split votes among themselves, I don't really see Glee winning BOTH of the supporting categories, and Jon Cryer already has an undeserved Emmy from last year.
Should Win: This is a tough one. The MF guys are all great in their roles, but then again, but I'm going to have to go with Burrell for being such a hilarious doofus desperate to be a "cool dad".
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series:Andre Braugher - Men of a Certain AgeMichael Emerson - LostTerry O'Quinn - LostAaron Paul - Breaking BadMartin Short - DamagesJohn Slattery - Mad Men
Will Win: Terry O'Quinn.
Lost's final season isn't leaving empty handed, and this is its strongest bet.
Should Win: Aaron Paul.
At times extremely unlikeable (though the same can be said of everyone on Breaking Bad), season 3 was Paul's best yet as Cranston's partner in crime. Those last few episodes were award-worthy on their own.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series:Julie Bowen - Modern FamilyJane Krakowski - 30RockJane Lynch - GleeHolland Taylor - Two and a Half MenSofia Vergara - Modern FamilyKristen Wiig - Saturday Night Live
Will Win: Jane Lynch.
The easiest category to pick for tonight's show, Lynch's Sue Sylvester has been a sensation since's Glee's beginning. Throw in a handful of touching scenes involving Sue and her mentally handicapped sister, and the award is all but locked up.
Should Win: Any of them.
No seriously, any of them, with the exception of perhaps Taylor. This is an absolutely incredible line-up and any one of these ladies would be incredibly worthy winners.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series:Christine Baranski - The Good WifeRose Byrne - DamagesSharon Gless - Burn NoticeChristina Hendricks - Mad MenElisabeth Moss - Mad MenArchie Panjabi - The Good Wife
Will Win: Elisabeth Moss.
She's been nominated before (in lead), and I don't think any of the others have enough buzz or support, whereas Moss was praised from early on.
Should Win: Christina Hendricks.
She's made Joan Holloway something of an icon (and not just for her figure), and taken a role that could have been a complete throwaway and made her an interesting role. While Moss's Peggy somewhat retreated in season 3, Joan stepped up to the plate on more than one occasion, and Hendricks deserves to be rewarded for it.
For the remainder of the nominees, jump on over to IMDb. The show starts at 7 pm (Central Time) on NBC; happy Emmy viewing, everyone!
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