Where we stand: Best Actress in a Leading Role

I'm getting worse and worse when it comes to keeping to personal deadlines. When I finished my post about the Best Actor contenders, I claimed that within a week I would at least move on to one more category. Alas, a week came and went, I've done absolutely nothing...until NOW! No more delays, let's talk about some actresses...

I've read a few brief articles that have posed the question, "is 2009 a weak year for women in film?" I hate to say it, but as of now, I agree, at least in the leading category (supporting actress is a whole different game this year). Historically, women have always struggled in regards to the strength of their roles, and it always stings when one or two women give stellar performances in great roles, while their competition are working their asses off with lesser material. I won't go into an indepth examination of why this is, or whose fault it is, because I don't know enough to give any valuable insight. However, what I will do is echo Nicole Kidman's quip from her acceptance speech when she won the Golden Globe for "The Hours": [paraphrase] "Keep on writing these great roles for [women], because [we're] really quite interesting."
Now, this isn't to say that there haven't been strong female performances, or that there aren't any more coming out this year. From what we've been given so far, there are a few contenders, whether based on hype, politics, reviews, or all three. And who are these women? Let's take a moment to meet them, in no order in regards to their chances of being nominated...

The first performance that comes to mind right now is one of several breakthrough women this year: Carey Mulligan in "An Education". While the comparisons to Audrey Hepburn may be a bit too much, it's still a radiant turn from a relatively fresh face, and is still my Best Actress win so far (I have yet to see "Precious", which we'll get to in a moment). "Maybe If I just randomly speak in French more often..."

Buzz for the film may have died down a little (which is understandable considering that no precursor awards have been given out yet), but Mulligan isn't really at risk at the moment. Consider her a lock for the nomination, and one of the three most likely to take home the statue.

Then we have "Precious"'s Gabourey Sidibe. She's spent a lot of time under co-star Mo'Nique's shadow, but in recent weeks has picked up lots and lots of steam. Hers is (from what I've read) the less showy performance, but equally as powerful. Watch your back, Mo'Nique...

And with no other lead characters, Sidibe doesn't have to worry about internal competition (unlike, say, the "Nine" ladies in supp. actress). Her performance is much weightier than Mulligan's, so if the Best Actress race turns into a showdown between her and Mulligan, expect Sidibe to come out on top, unless a certain veteran sneaks in (let's leave that for...much later).
Staying in the vein of breakthroughs, we shouldn't count out "Bright Star"'s Abbie Cornish. Cornish pretty well owns Jane Campion's film and will probably be the only one to receive a nomination. She deserves it, certainly, but people don't seem to be talking about the film as much. "Let me be remembered for this and not "The Golden Age"...

Again, it's not entirely appropriate to use that as "hard evidence", simply because we're sitting in that lull before the critics awards start pouring in. But until then, consider Cornish a strong possibility, just not a definite.
But there are younger competitors who aren't breakthroughs who have a chance, case in point: Saoirse Ronan in "The Lovely Bones". There seems to be mixed buzz on the film so far, but Ronan's role is quite meaty. "I gave them their happiness...and then Stanley Tucci killed me. FML."

She's already shown us what she can do in "Atonement", and this is her chance to prove herself as a lead (the rest of the cast are being campaigned as supporting). The question is, how many young ladies will the Academy want to nominate in one year? Surely there must be someone older...

We've had a handful of last minute changes in this award season, but they seemed to be primarily concerned with men, until recently. A little film called "The Last Station", which many had figured would be bumped to 2010, has in fact picked up late 09 release dates, and is now in the running. "Let me put on a bikini and THEN we'll see who looks hotter, Dame Judi..."

Though initial buzz was for Christopher Plummer, the attention is now shifted to Helen Mirren, who has earned positive notices and recently won the Best Actress award at the Rome Film Festival. I wouldn't say Mirren has a great chance of getting nominated, but she does have a chance.
Then there's Marion Cotillard from "Nine". Originally, the plan had been for all of the women to be campaigned in Supporting Actress, but that's all changed, and after thinking about it, I'm not too surprised. As far as how "lead" to role is, I can't be sure. I haven't seen the stage show, but in Fellini's "8 1/2", there's no question that all of the women are supporting, albeit in varying degrees. In Marshall's version though, Cotillard is the only woman who sings two songs, the same number that Day-Lewis sings. She also plays his long-suffering wife, a role type that the Academy tends to gravitate towards. And then there's the Penelope Cruz factor. Test screening reports indicate that Cotillard and Cruz, who have the two largest female roles, also run away with the show. "Lead? Mr. Weinstein, you must be joking!"

By moving Cotillard to lead, the film doesn't have to worry about these two ladies fighting against each other in the Supporting Actress category (though it could technically still happen if Cotillard gets in for "Public Enemies"). I know the argument isn't entirely valid, but given Cotillard's recent win in Best Actress, I don't think she has any chance at winning, but if "Nine" goes over really well not just for her performance, but for the film as a whole, don't be surprised if she's back at the ceremony as a nominee. Still not a sure bet, however.
However, Cotillard should be thankful that she isn't one of the women I'm about to mention, because I'm convinced that the following are basically not happening. The first is Hillary Swank in "Amelia". Swank's reviews were solid enough, but the film crashed and burned. "Not getting nominated? Did I not die well enough? Seriously, is that why!?"

There's a slim chance that Swank could pull a Cate Blanchett at be nominated for a critically panned film, but I doubt it. Plus, do you really think the Academy is going to give Swank the slightest chance of winning a third Oscar before Meryl Streep? Not happening.
Then there are performances that were praised but are just too "small", like Tilda Swinton in "Julia". I found the film to be a mess, but even when burdened with irritating dialogue, Swinton managed to shine in this role. Tilda Swinton the day after finding out she has to do another Narnia movie.

The only problem is that the film is simply too damn small. She'll need the campaign of a lifetime (maybe hire the Weinsteins if they aren't overloaded yet?) to get in, no matter how much she deserves the nomination at the moment.
Zooey Deschanel has the opposite problem. People know about "(500) Days of Summer", but there isn't enough praise for her. It's certainly a nice apology after "The Happening", and she's adorable in the film, but the story never focuses on anything from her perspective. "And what makes you think you'll get nominated at all, tough guy?"

It sticks to Joseph Gordon-Levitt, who is not only more of a lead, but gave the better performance. There's also the debate as to whether she's supporting or not. A Globe nomination isn't too far fetched, but don't even bring up the possibility of an Oscar nom.
There's also Maggie Gyllenhaal in "Crazy Heart". The film looks like Jeff Bridges' show, and unless she gives a mind blowing performance, I don't see her getting recognized at all. Yup, that's all I felt like saying about that.Maggie: Must be nice have four Oscar nominations.
Jeff: It is. What's it like having none at all?
Maggie:...............
Jeff: The dude abides.

One performance that has surprised me is Sandra Bullock in this week's "The Blind Side". The film looks like typical "based-on-a-true-story" inspirational fluff, but Bullock is actually earning positive notices. Considering that she's done quite a bit of crud, Bullock is capable of giving good, understated performances ("Infamous"). "Just wait and see. If they don't nominate me, I'll make "All About Steve 2"...that'll teach 'em."

I don't see the Oscar nomination happening, but she could be this year's Jodie Foster and get the Globe nomination for an otherwise routine drama. But of course, she's got so much competition, and then there's the veteran factor...
Veteran, you say? Who could I possibly be referring to? If you guessed Meryl Streep, well, no DUH. "Julie and Julia" may not be Streep's greatest work of the decade, but after so many nominations but no wins since "Sophie's Choice" in the mid-80s, the nomination is becoming close to a sure thing. Now that Meryl knows how to cook, don't be surprised if people who don't vote for her come down with "mysterious" food poisoning...

But if the Academy is going to give her a third statue, are they going to want it to be for something so light? Sure, the performance has its more emotional moments, but do they want THIS to be the one? I have mixed feelings. They're certainly more likely to nominate her for this than for "It's Complicated" (since when was there any hype for that performance at all?). This is one that will ultimately be decided, like everything else, in the precursors. "They said I would get nominated for WHAT!? C'mon Steve, quit pullin' my leg!"

However, the precursors are not the Oscars (obvious, much?), and if no one else gives Streep an award, the Academy may feel compelled to give her the big one.
That's all for now. I'd mention Zoe Saldana in "Avatar", but I don't think the film will be an actor's piece. Zoe: It's because I'm black, right?

Audience: You're black?

That, and I'm not entirely clear on the Academy's policy on motion-capture performances. Until next time!