2016 Oscar Predictions

It's that time of year again. If there's one good thing to come out of this awards season, it's been the lack of predictability. The three big Guild awards (Producers, Screen Actors, and Directors) usually indicate where we're headed. But this year, all three went to different films. The Big Short took the PGA, Spotlight won the SAG, and The Revenant/Alejandro Inarritu won at the DGA (followed by top awards at BAFTA). So where does that leave us for Oscar Sunday? Here's what might happen...

*In categories where there is a "should have been" entry, I've tried to limit these to films/performances that had some semblance of a showing during awards season (including the smallest local critics groups). As such, my favorite US release of 2015  - About Elly - isn't marked down anywhere (even though, yes, it should be in many of these categories, but that's what my personal ballot is for).

Nominees are here

Best Picture

Will Win: Spotlight

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Carol, 45 Years

Usually by this point in the race, Best Picture is one of the easiest categories to call. Even when it comes down to a genuine two-horse race (as in last year's Boyhood v. Birdman), one usually has a decent edge. That couldn't be further from the truth now, with three solidly positioned "front runners" and a few possible spoilers. Of the three front runners, I'm going to (just barely) stick with Spotlight, despite a late surge of love for The Revenant. The Revenant clearly has ardent fans, but it also has strong detractors. Spotlight is an appealing middleground pick for Picture. It's not an immediately overwhelming spectacle, but it's the sort of thoughtful, relevant story that can claim the top prize even while being in dead last for the Best Director prize. That said, The Revenant and The Big Short aren't far behind. And, given how weird this season has been, keep an eye out for Mad Max: Fury Road. Stranger things have happened. Then again, last year I bet that Boyhood would emerge triumphant while Alejandro Inarritu (Birdman/The Revenant) would take director, and the latter ended up winning both.

Best Director

Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu - The Revenant

Should Win: George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Todd Haynes - Carol, Andrew Haigh - 45 Years

The Revenant is much more secure here, despite history technically being against Inarritu. Directors rarely win back to back, but Inarritu is positioned to buck the trend, rather than follow it. The film's campaign has been built on how difficult the film was to mount, and that will likely factor in to people's votes. Funnily enough, another movie that likely wasn't a walk in the park, is also here. Inarritu's film bludgeons the viewer with its difficulty without amounting to much. Miller, however, made something that actually benefitted from brutal on-location shooting. Fury Road may not emphasize its logistical obstacles to the same degree, but it does far more with its sun-blasted vistas than The Revenant does with its frozen tundra. These two films are perfect opposites, and on the surface The Revenant seems like the one we should root for. Long shots, real-life story basis, a revenge drama etc... Meanwhile, Fury Road looks like "just an action movie" with a few decent stunts. Things couldn't be further from the truth. Miller has made the exhilarating out-in-the-wildnerness epic that Inarritu strains for (and comes up short).

Best Actor

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant

Should Win: Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
Should Have Been Here: Jacob Tremblay - Room, Tom Courtenay - 45 Years, Jason Segel & Jesse Eisenberg - The End of the Tour

I groan every time I look over this category for two reasons: 1) how uninspired the lineup is on its own and 2) how I can't even think of many un-nominated performances that should be here instead. Even when Actor comes up short with its actual nominees, there's usually an embarrassment of riches elsewhere from the same year. Not so for 2015, which has been a wasteland. All the more reason to think that this will finally be the year Leonardo DiCaprio wins, and for one of his weakest performances. Yes, he did lots of his own stunts out in the cold and ate raw bison liver. But what does that have to do with acting or building a character or creating a connection with the viewer? We'll never know. For much of The Revenant's bloated duration, DiCaprio is a meat puppet/rag doll that Inarritu batters into submission (along with the audience). Suffering can produce great art, but the material has to be in service of something. Our other options aren't terribly exciting, but at least I can dredge up some semblance of enthusiasm for Michael Fassbender's spiky portrayal of Steve Jobs and Matt Damon's old-fashioned star turn in The Martian. Though, at this point, it's tempting to just cancel this category altogether. 

Best Actress

Will Win: Brie Larson - Room

Should Win: Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years
Should Have Been Here: Nina Hoss - Phoenix, Emily Blunt - Sicario, Elisabeth Moss - Queen of Earth

Even with the lazy and unwelcome throwaway nod for Jennifer Lawrence, Best Actress is having one of its strongest showings ever. Going by pre-cursors, Brie Larson pretty much has this locked up, and she'll be winning for a great performance put up against other great performances. Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn is a tender marvel, and Cate Blanchett is regal and sensitive in Carol (as strong, in different ways, as her work in Blue Jasmine). And then there's Charlotte Rampling. Those diversity comments were a bit of a foot-in-mouth moment (albeit more attributable to ignorance than malice), but that has nothing to do with her work in 45 Years, which is absolutely stunning (in a subtle way).  Three nominees have a possible chance (Larson, Rampling, Ronan), and no matter who wins (Larson..duh), so do we.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone - Creed

Should Win: ?
Should Have Been Here: Sam Elliott - Grandma, Oscar Isaac - Ex Machina, Walton Goggins - The Hateful 8

Supporting Actor has a long history of going the sentimental route. But what if there's two sentimental routes? That's the weird part of this category, which features a more obvious choice (Sylvester Stallone - Creed), and quiet alternative (Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies). Were Stallone not here, I'd mark Rylance down as the favorite (he gained some momentum from a win at the BAFTAs). But there are a few key differences to consider. Stallone is much better known (especially on this side of the Atlantic). And even though Rylance has been working for years, his noteworthy film work is limited; he's best known for the stage. The other big difference comes down to voting (or rather: who's voting). For the BAFTAs, only members of a given branch may vote for the respective categories (actors vote for actors, writers for writers, etc...), which gave Rylance an advantage. For the Academy, however, voting for most categories is open to the entire membership, which favors Stallone. Actors may love Rylance, but in the industry as a whole (Stateside), there isn't the same feeling that he's "overdue." In the even that Stallone and Rylance split enough votes, then maaaaaybe Mark Ruffalo can sneak in (if he does, it would put Spotlight on track to pull a 12 Years a Slave: win only three trophies, but all big ones - Picture, Screenplay, supporting performance).

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl

Should Win: Rooney Mara - Carol
Should Have Been Here: Marion Cotillard - Macbeth, Kristen Stewart - Clouds of Sils Maria, Alicia Vikander - Ex Machina 

Vikander had a stellar year, and an Oscar will crown her as a new It Girl. It also falls in line with one of the Academy's favorite roles for women: the supportive wife. Vikander is quite good in The Danish Girl (and Ex Machina), so this is hardly one to complain about. But what Rooney Mara does in Carol - all furtive glances and distant observing - is a thing of understated beauty. Granted, she should be in lead along with her co-star, but at least she's nominated. If there's a potential spoiler here, it's Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs, who has snuck in and won a few prizes along the way.

Best Original Screenplay

Will and Should Win: Spotlight

Spotlight doesn't register as the most "cinematic" of major nominees, and its writing is far more likely to be the film's big area of recognition. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: The Big Short

Should Win: Carol
Should Have Been Here: 45 Years

Think of The Big Short as Spotlight's louder, flashier cousin. It tackles a real life story with sobering consequences, but does so in a way that's livelier and draws attention to the complexity of its subject matter. The far superior option in this category is Phyllis Nagy's beautiful and nuanced work on Carol, but it will likely prove too introverted to grab enough votes. 

Best Editing

Will and Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road 
Should Have Been Here: 45 Years, Carol, Sicario

Usually films that win here have the most (highest number of cuts) editing, not necessarily the most purposeful. If Mad Max wins here Sunday night, it will be a rare example of a film with high-octane, rapid-fire editing truly earning the trophy. Margaret Sixel's team made sure that every shot advanced and informed the story, while maintaining total clarity during the film's exhilarating action sequences. Possible spoiler: The Big Short, for being a more obvious awards contender that's dressed up with look-at-me editing to condense its labyrinthine subject matter.

Best Cinematography

Will Win: The Revenant

Should Win: Sicario
Should Have Been Here: It Follows, Phoenix, It Follows

No one has ever won three consecutive Oscars in this category, but Emmanuel Lubezki looks primed to make history. His work on The Revenant is certainly impressive, though it's often in service of the film that lacks the depth of vision to make it worthwhile. After being snubbed for his sublime work on The Tree of Life, Lubezki is coming close to being over-compensated. Meanwhile, one of the field's other geniuses - Roger Deakins - should take home the trophy for his stellar work on Denis Villeneuve's Sicario. Other worthy winners include Ed Lachmann's subtly masterful work on Carol, and John Seale's super-saturated images of vehicular carnage in Mad Max.

Best Production Design

Will and Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Crimson Peak

Most of Mad Max is spent out in the desert, but it still makes its mark in the PD category  - and thrillingly so - due to the design work on the film's automotive ensemble. Any individual car in Fury Road is a work of mind-melting art, communicating the chaos of the film's setting and characters in ways that words never could. Oddly missing from this lineup? The jaw-dropping settings of Guillermo Del Toro's gothic horror/romance Crimson Peak. The movie as a whole was never destined to be an awards player, but you'd think the arts and tech categories would have at least gone gaga for it.

Best Costume Design

Will and Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Crimson Peak, Brooklyn

I was tempted to go with Cinderella, but arts/tech categories are shaping up to be a bloodbath between The Revenant and Mad Max. And it's the latter's costumes that became instantly iconic (also due to the hair and make up wizardry). This is one of the category's best lineups in years, even with head-scratching exclusions like the stylized exaggerations of Crimson Peak, and the bright hued, yet authentic, 50s threads of Brooklyn.

Foreign Language Film

Will Win: Son of Saul [Hungary]

Should Win: Mustang [France/Turkey]

Since its premiere at Cannes, Lazlo Nemes' concentration camp drama has been positioned as FLF front runner. It will likely take home the trophy for its unrelenting barrage of horror. But there is room for an upset from the vastly superior French/Turkish drama Mustang. Last year's winner - Poland's Ida - was also about the Holocaust (albeit less directly), and voters may favor something a little different. Mustang, with its themes of female empowerment and rebellion could resonate more deeply (it also boasts a realistic ending that still manages to be uplifting). 

Animated Film

Will and Should Win: Inside Out

Anomalisa has maybe a 1% chance of upsetting. Otherwise, nope. 

Documentary Film

Will Win: Amy

Should Win: n/a

Original Score

Will Win: The Hateful 8

Should Win: Carol

Two composing legends are nominated in this category, but voters will likely favor Ennio Morricone over John Williams. Williams is nominated for Star Wars, revisiting pre-existing compositions while adding new ones. Morricone created a largely original work to carry Tarantino's Western. On the less bombastic end of the spectrum is Carter Burwell's delicate, haunting work on Carol, which would be one of the most inspired wins in the category's history. If only...

Original Song

Will Win: "Til It Happens to You" - The Hunting Ground

Should Win: "Simple Song #3" - Youth

Eh.

Make Up and Hairstyling

Will and Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Visual Effects

Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian

Sound Editing

Will and Should: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing

Will Win: The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

And now for everyone's least favorite categories to predict...the Short Films

Live Action Short

Will Win: Day One

Should Win: n/a

Animated Short

Will Win: Sanjay's Super Team

Should Win: The World of Tomorrow

I rarely have something to root for in the Short Film categories, but thankfully this year is an exception. Sanjay's Super Team is a delightful, but the entire category is put to shame but Don Hertzfeldt's bizarre, cerebral, and strangely touching sci-fi piece. At 15 minutes, it contains oddball humor, beautiful (and deceptively crude)  images, and a heartbreaking story about existence and memory.

Documentary Short

Will Win: Body Team 12

Should Win: n/a

Review: "The Witch"

Director: Robert Eggers
Runtime: 92 minutes


Since debuting at last year's Sundance Film Festival, Robert Eggers' The Witch (stylized as The VVitch) has been building up hype on the way to its actual release in theaters. Eggers debut, unlike so many raved-about Sundance darlings, has thankfully proven to be worth the wait. Despite few outright scares, this period horror piece (which doubles as a folk tale) commands attention due to Eggers uncanny ability to tighten the screws with truly frightening mastery.

Given the setting (17th century America), it's entirely understandable that The Crucible is one of the first things to come to mind when trying to make comparisons. Yet unlike Arthur Miller's classic work, Eggers is more inclined to amp up the spook factor, rather than shine light on centuries-old superstition and fear-mongering. The Crucible is a bleak and sobering story, while The Witch dives headfirst into its world to tease the characters (and the audience) with ambiguity. We watch The Crucible in horror because of what we know. We watch The Witch in horror because of what we don't. 

It's all part of that nifty little thing called suspension of disbelief, and Eggers is smart to ease us into the possibility of the supernatural. When the first truly ominous (and bloody) act occurs on screen, it's mesmerizing and disturbing. Yet it's also something that could be attributed merely to human insanity. The act of violence that befalls the central family is a tragedy, but not an omen (basically, the dingo got their baby). 

And, for some time afterwards, The Witch refrains from further freakout sessions in favor of showcasing a family in mourning. Said family is played by a talented ensemble, most notable because the majority of actors are children. For roughly one third (Eggers film comes in at a clean 90 min) of its run time, The Witch hardly seems like much of a horror film of any sort. Atmospheric, slow-burn horror relies on keeping the audience waiting, but there are moments here when you'd be forgiven for thinking that Eggers had completely lost the plot. And that's where he gets you.

Whatever may or may not be real in The Witch is secondary (to a point). What matters more is Eggers ability to immerse us in a world where threats of Satanic violence are taken with deadly seriousness. In horror films set in the present, ideas of the supernatural are treated with a shrug by protagonists until too many things start adding up. In the world of The Witch, however, fearing black magic isn't something that will earn you scoffs of disapproval.

Eventually, the time comes for Eggers to put his characters (as well as viewers) through the physical and emotional ringer. Yet the last stretch (more like the entire second half) continues to play out as a series of carefully planned escalations. By the time The Witch reaches a conclusion (those fearing an ambiguous end can breathe a sigh of relief), it has earned each and every disturbing moment. The cast is uniformly excellent, led by breakout star Anya Taylor-Joy as a conflicted girl on the verge of womanhood, and Ralph Ineson as her imposing, guilt-ridden father. Tech credits are all first rate despite a limited budget, with Jarin Blaschke's stark imagery casting a shadow of evil across the most mundane of landscapes. Meanwhile, Mark Korven's varied and intense score ranges from disquieting to absolutely nerve-shredding. At the end of 90 exhausting minutes, even the most devout of nonbelievers might be tempted to mutter a prayer the next time they deal with the unexplainable. 

Grade: A-

Best of 2015 - Part 1: Top 20 (and other superlatives)

FMR's Jordan Baker writes up his 20 favorite movies from 2015, with a few honorable (and not-so-honorable) mentions along the way:

As we're just shy of a month into the new year, it's finally time for me to stop procrastinating and start settling on favorites from 2015. Rather than delay the inevitable with a "year that was" intro, I'd rather just get on with it this year... 

Let the list-making begin...

Great Debut or Breakout Performances:
Mya Taylor - Tangerine

As a transgender prostitute, Taylor (a trans woman herself) is the quieter half of the duo at the center of Sean Baker's raucous comedy (shot on an iPhone). The film itself sometimes gets too broad and crass for its own good, but Taylor is excellent as the put-upon Alexandra.
Bel Powley - The Diary of a Teenage Girl

British-born Powley is more than convincing as Minnie, an American teenager whose sexual awakening takes place amid 1970s San Francisco. The film's cast includes Kristen Wiig and Alexander Skarsgaard, but Powley more than holds her own as the film's main character.
Jacob Tremblay - Room

In addition to being adorable at awards shows, Tremblay is also spectacular in Room, even opposite veteran actors like Joan Allen and William H. Macy. He's half of Room's first half, and his interactions with Brie Larson never come off as overly-coached or precious.
Abraham Attah - Beasts of No Nation

Idris Elba is the big name in Beasts of No Nation, but Attah is excellent as Agu, a young boy transformed into a soldier in a brutal civil war.
Daisy Ridley and John Boyega - Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Two instantly-winning heroes (one a confident loner, the other a bumbling runaway) taking one of the biggest franchises in movie history boldly into the future.
Teyonah Parris - Chi-Raq

Spike Lee's Chi-Raq is not his most consistent film, but it does get a major boost from its leading lady. As a modern version of Lysistrata, Parris (Mad Men, Dear White People) is fiery, sexy, and commanding as the leader of a sex strike designed to stop Chicago gang violence. Most of the film is written in iambic pentameter, and Parris is one of the cast members who never once loses the rhythm of her dialogue. 
Elizabeth Debicki - The Man from U.N.C.L.E.

Guy Ritchie's take on the 60s TV series is a mixed bag overall. The pacing is clunky, the jokes don't always land, and the performances from the film's heroes are inconsistent (though they're played by Henry Cavill, Armie Hammer, and Alicia Vikander, so at least they're easy on the eyes). Then along comes the gazelle-like Debicki (first seen stateside as Jordan Baker in Baz Luhrmann's Great Gatsby) as the film's villain. She slinks around in wild, flowing animal prints and bold jewelry and steals the whole movie out from under Superman, the Winklevii, and the ubiquitous Swede. If only we could send the Australian actress back in time so that she could star in a Connery-era Bond film.
Kharidja Toure and Assa Sylla - Girlhood

As a shy teenager and girl gang leader, respectively, Toure and Sylla deliver two nuanced portrayals of troubled teens while steering clear of cliches. Under Celine Sciamma's direction, both actresses are given room to create fully-rounded characters with complex inner and outer lives.
Rebecca Ferguson - Mission Impossible 5: Rogue Nation

An ass kicking hybrid of Lara Croft and Ingrid Bergman, Ferguson is the undeniable highlight in the latest MI entry. Whether disarming opponents or sauntering into an opera house in an acid-green dress, she's captivating from start to finish.
This Guy - Mad Max: Fury Road

I mean, come on.


Best Performance Stuck in a Bad Movie:

Marion Cotillard - Macbeth

Even Michael Fassbender disappoints in Justin Kurzel's take on the Scottish play. Non-native English speaker Marion Cotillard, however, is spectacular in one of theatre's best roles (male or female). Thoroughly reduced to a supporting part in Kurzel's adaptation, the French actress is the only major cast member who sounds like she has more than a surface understanding of every word she delivers. The character's zenith, the out damned spot speech, is masterfully delivered, and one of the few times the film's direction matches the material. Of course, it's Cotillard who does the heavy lifting. Kurzel's Macbeth is pretty, but unmemorable. Cotillard's Lady Macbeth, however, is one for the ages. 


Best Individual Work of Visual Effects
Ava - Ex Machina

Subtle and utterly seamless. Even without the detailed sound work (quiet blips and whirrrrs), the creation of Vikander's android would still be a marvel.

Best Individual Work of Costume Design:
Immortan Joe - Mad Max: Fury Road

Everything you need to know about the Fury Road's maniacal, water-hoarding despot can be found in the details of his striking attire and make up. More than any other character design in Fury Road, the Immortan showcases the film's Wagner-opera-on-cocaine aesthetic.
Best Individual Work of Set Design
Allerdale Hall - Crimson Peak

Just when you think you've seen all that movies can do with period settings, along comes Guillermo Del Toro to give a needed twist to 19th century British architecture. The grand foyer of the crumbling Sharpe household is a marvel of design, full of dark, lacquered wood and faded wallpapers. 


Shot of the Year

John Seale - Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Evidence that Kristen Wiig Can Do Anything: 
Welcome to Me

There are funny moments in Welcome To Me, but at its best this odd little movie gives Kristen Wiig real room to stretch her muscles as a dramatic actress, all while retaining some of her usual quirks. 

Best Film Not Officially Released in 2015: 

The Lobster

A sensation at Cannes, and for good reason. Yorgos Lanthimos' dark comedy is the product of a singular vision firing on all cylinders. The large cast are all impeccable, even as they all take on a heavily affected deadpan. Colin Farrell is wonderful as the story's anchor, while Olivia Colman steals every scene she's in as an imperious hotel manager. Lanthimos also deserves credit for getting two of the biggest laughs of this (and last) year for scenes involving people dancing. The film has been given a 2016 US release, but an exact date has yet to be set. 

Best Individual Piece of Original Music

"Brothers in Arms" by Junkie XL - Mad Max: Fury Road

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xllG3fSUAOw

An epic, surging, overwhelming piece that accompanies the film's standout action sequence.

And finally, on to the films as a whole...

Honorable Mentions:

Tom at the Farm and Mommy are not here to accept their placement on this list, as they've been left on my 2014 write up where they belong. Kind of.

Straight Outta Compton

Music biopics are a staple of awards season, though usually about white artists (or black artists operating in "acceptable" genres). F. Gary Gray's look at the rise and fall of NWA hits some predictable storytelling beats, but it's enlivened by strong performances (and incredible casting) and polished filmmaking. And the screenplay, despite being the weakest component, has a smart understanding of the historical context surrounding one of the most significant musical acts of the 20th century.

Grandma

A grandmother/granddaughter abortion road trip dark comedy. Doesn't exactly seem like the most accessible thing, but Paul Weitz's film is a smart, wonderfully performed little character piece. Lily Tomlin and Julia Garner are both lovely in the central roles, though Sam Elliott momentarily steals the spotlight with a phenomenal supporting part. Marcia Gay Harden, Laverne Cox, and Judy Greer round out the delightful ensemble.

The End of the Tour

One of my favorite unofficial genres of movies is the kind where two radically different people spend two hours on screen just talking (Linklater's Before movies, Certified Copy, etc...). James Ponsoldt's The End of the Tour is a great addition, even though its set up is slightly different. Jesse Eisenberg and Jason Segel give two of 2015's most nuanced performances as journalist Dave Lipsky and author David Foster Wallace, respectively. Despite Wallace's untimely death, Ponsoldt's film avoids cheap hagiography, and does its best to present him as a brilliant, yet complicated, person.

Jauja

An opaque anti-western featuring beautiful photography, a metaphysical plot, and a stoically commanding Viggo Mortensen. Lisandro Alonso's film is like an abstract interpretation of a Cormac McCarthy novel.

The Tribe

More than just an attention-grabbing concept (entirely in sign-language), The Tribe is an arresting, though eventually dragged-out, look at toxic hierarchies. Featuring gripping filmmaking that makes the most of the drab Ukrainian setting, Miroslav Slaboshpitsky's drama isn't afraid to go to dark and frightening places. It gets a bit redundant in the second hour, but the film brings it home in the finale, and ends with a sequence that would make even Michael Haneke's blood run cold.

Eden

Mia Hansen-Love's sprawling look at the world of modern electronic music is an immersive, enjoyable experience. The widely varied soundtrack is smartly used to follow the progression of the narrative, and the young cast are wonderfully understated. 

The Top 20

20. Clouds of Sils Maria

Olivier Assayas' showbiz drama eventually gets a bit lost, but the first two thirds are immensely enjoyable thanks to some sharp writing and the fabulous performances from Juliette Binoche and Kristen Stewart. The latter's naturalistic work is a perfect foil for Binoche's heightened grande dame routine, and the two actresses are remarkable together.

19. Brooklyn

My first reaction when I walked out of Brooklyn was "that was absolutely lovely," and my opinion hasn't changed one bit since then. John Crowley's immigrant tale doesn't have the most difficult of circumstances, but it's an insightful, lovingly made work that resonates deeply. Saoirse Ronan continues to impress as Eilis, and Irish immigrant caught between her family across the pond and her new life in New York. Crowley's movie, largely thanks to Ronan's performance, is the kind that hits just about every mark: it's engaging, charming, funny, and ultimately deeply moving. 

18. The Diary of a Teenage Girl

A Sundance sensation that unfortunately floundered at the box office, Marielle Heller's dramedy is one of several standout coming of age stories about young women from the past year. Break-out star Bel Powley leads this story of Minnie, an aspiring artist who starts an affair with Monroe (Alexander Skarsgaard), who just happens to be her mother's (Kristen Wiig) boyfriend. The characters in Diary are always engaged in questionable activity, but Heller refrains from taking a school marm-ish tone. It's a smart, human look at the emotional messiness that comes with growing up (especially if you grew up in 1970s San Francisco).

17. The Gift

File this one under: movies that deserved better marketing campaigns. Australian actor Joel Edgerton's directing debut looked like a disposable, trashy thriller. In a wonderful surprise (it was released in the cinematic wasteland of August), The Gift turned out to be an uncommonly assured and nuanced psychological thriller. Plenty of films have tried to replicated the formula of Fatal Attraction, but few work like Edgerton's platonic interpretation. As Gordo (Edgerton) inserts himself into the lives of Simon and Robyn (Jason Bateman and Rebecca Hall), the script avoids going for shock value or cheap scares. Its suspense is much closer to the kind utilized in Gone Girl. The three central performances are excellent, and Edgerton's direction is slick and elegant despite the limited budget and sporadically ugly digital photography. The final act is understandably divisive, but I found myself feeling that Edgerton earned the twisted ending.

16. The Martian

Though certainly not ambitious in the vein of something like The Counselor, Ridley Scott's The Martian succeeds more consistently than his 2013 Cormac McCarthy collaboration. The Martian is an unabashed crowd-pleaser, full of humor, enjoyable set pieces, and engaging performances from a star-studded cast. Sure, Cameron Diaz never fucks a car, but you have to give Scott credit for how loose and fluid his direction is here. There are no moments of poetic grandeur in The Martian, but its detailed, problem-solving based narrative gets the job done with winning enthusiasm. After several space epics built on dire circumstances, it's a blast to see an interplanetary adventure that never gets stuck in existential agony. That said, if Scott wants to go back and try working with McCarthy again after this (let's get that Blood Meridian adaptation going again), you'll hear no complaints from me...

15. Crimson Peak

Another one of 2015's major victims of unclear marketing, Guillermo Del Toro's Crimson Peak is a Gothic romance dressed up as a schlocky haunted house thriller. Carefully balancing several tones (and only momentarily faltering), Del Toro's film is much more in line with his earlier ghost stories (Devil's Backbone, Pan's Labyrinth) than his forays into big-budget fantasy. It's a stunningly-realized vision, led by a game cast who are all in sync with the film's melodramatic tone. Amid the secrets, extravagant gowns, and imposing mansions (the main setting is a jaw-dropping work of set design) is also a mystery with (but ultimately not about) ghosts. It's a tricky line to walk, but Del Toro succeeds by treating the material just seriously enough. It could have been a pretty-looking lark made with an emphatic wink to the audience. Instead, it's a genuinely enjoyable and Gothic romance that stands on its own, despite its nods to the past and healthy dose of bloody murder.

14. Mustang

While Hungary's Son of Saul will almost certainly take home the Foreign Language Film Oscar, the honor ought to go to Deniz Gamze Erguven's Mustang (France's nominee, despite being set in Turkey and in Turkish). Erguven's film follows five sisters caught living under the oppressive rule of their uncle in a small Turkish town. As the five girls rebel in various ways, their lives reach joyous highs and tragic lows. Erguven does a lovely job keeping the story moving without losing track of her five protagonists. The five young actresses are all wonderful and are instantly believable as siblings bonded by less-than-pleasant circumstances. Despite some of the darker details, Mustang is a fairy tale at heart, albeit with a harsh sense of realism.

13. Queen of Earth

Acerbic, cryptic, and at times infuriating, Alex Ross Perry's psychological drama is a shot in the arm of modern indie cinema. Eschewing naturalistic, mumbling dialogue, Perry gifts actresses Elisabeth Moss (magnificent) and Katherine Waterston with theatrical, bruising paragraphs of text to work their way around. Both of them, especially Moss, tear into the material and enliven this chamber drama that nods to Bergman and Polanski with just a dash of Cassavetes. It has one glaring flaw - the opening scene is bizarrely (intentionally??) amateurish - but what follows is often gripping, even if it means spend 90 minutes cooped up with two increasingly miserable people.

12. Inside Out

After a series of less-adored films, Pixar reclaimed its animation throne with this sweet, funny, and touching look at the inside of a child's mind. As expected, the animation is beautiful, and the voice cast (led by Amy Poehler and Phyllis Smith) is excellent all around. Where Inside Out really makes its mark, however, is its strikingly mature handling of the less pleasant end of the emotional spectrum. Initially set up as a Debbie Downer-esque buzzkill, Smith's Sadness is eventually given a validity that sends a powerful message to audiences of all ages: sadness (and how we cope with it) matters, and it doesn't deserve to be demonized in the name of trying to have a positive mindset. In a society where even adults with depression are told to just "stop being sad" or "snap out of it," Inside Out's compassion is radical in its maturity. 

11. The Duke of Burgundy

If you're looking for something weird, mysterious, hypnotic, and sexy, then look no further than this trippy psycho-sexual drama from Peter Strickland. Making a vast improvement from his previous film, the weird-for-weirdness' sake Berberian Sound Studio, Strickland's new film actually takes time to build characters before diving down the rabbit hole. Sincere but with carefully chosen flashes of camp, The Duke of Burgundy presents an unconventional relationship without taking a judgmental stance. As the power dynamics between Cynthia (Sidse Babbett-Knudsen, excellent) and Evelyn (Chiara D'Anna) shift, Strickland takes the narrative to increasingly abstract and bizarre places. But because there's a sense of grounding in a genuine, albeit experimental, relationship, the plunge into the surreal feels earned. What it all ultimately means is left wide open for interpretation, although this time it doesn't feel like Strickland is using ambiguity as a cop out.

10. Spotlight

Like a great piece of journalism, Spotlight succeeds because it keeps a level head while tacking potentially lurid subject matter. The sense of objectivity pervades every aspect of Tom McCarthy's film, almost always for the better. The performances aren't particularly flashy, allowing them to better support a story that's bigger than any of the individuals on screen. And despite the purposefully drab interiors and early 2000s journalism couture on display (pleated khakis as far as the eye can see), there's a subtly intelligent work involved in the visuals. In one beautifully understated shot, the camera glides backward as the protagonists learn the true scope of the sexual abuse scandal within the Catholic Church. It's a straightforward (but thoughtful) choice that encapsulates all of the film's best qualities.  

09. Room

After the middling oddity of 2014's Frank, I was nervous about Lenny Abrahamson directing a project like Room. Thankfully, Abrahamson more than proved me wrong. Working off of Emma Donohue's adaptation of her own novel, Abrahamson has made a film that manages to be deeply moving while generally avoiding lazy sentimentality. The only instances when the film's tone falters occur when the score tries to do the emotional heavy lifting that the actors already pull off. Split in two parts (the room and after the room), Abrahamson even handles the big location shift gracefully. Aided by stellar performances from Brie Larson and Jacob Tremblay, Room's story soars, even when it's at its most confined. Even in the claustrophobic first half, Room still feels cinematic thanks to Danny Cohen's adventurous framing and staging. 

08. Girlhood

Fitting that, just after Boyhood, a film like Girlhood would arrive on US soil. Yet this French import from director Celine Sciamma doesn't have the scope or ambitious filmmaking conceit of Linklater's Best Picture nominee. The title is broad and vague, but this coming-of-age story is wonderful for the exact opposite reasons that Boyhood worked so well: specificity. Set in a working class French community, it follows a few pivotal moments in the growth of young teen Marieme (the wonderful Kharidja Toure) as she falls in with a local gang. But rather than reduce Marieme's new friends to simple stereotypes (ie: bad influences she eventually has to move on from), Sciamma humanizes them and gives their points of view validity. Embedded in Marieme's story are issues of class, race, and gender, all of which are deftly explored. It's also beautifully made, with a cozy electronic score and photography that blends a rich array of pastels and neons. Bonus points for the scene in which the girls lip-sync to Rihanna's "Diamonds," a flash of near ecstatic happiness.

07. It Follows

Director David Robert Mitchell's It Follows is, on the surface, an enthusiastic homage to low budget 80s horror movies. The kind where teenagers get pursued by some sort of supernatural being, and picked off one by one. What elevates this film, though, is the mix of forward-thinking subtext and first rate filmmaking. Mitchell employs a number of lengthy, subtle camera movements that hold our attention on even the most mundane of landscapes and settings. Like The Birds, the genius of It Follows lies in its ability to turn something so simple into a harbinger of death. In this case, it's a creature that takes the form of a stranger and walks (and not terribly fast) straight at you. With a young cast top lined by 21st century scream queen Maika Monroe, Mitchell sells the concept on all fronts. Rather than take the easy road and go for jump scares, It Follows holds our attention by never allowing us to look away as the sensation of dread stealthily rises until it's too late.

06. Sicario

Denis Villeneuve turns in his best film to date with this gripping drug war thriller. Though not an outright action-movie like the marketing suggested, Sicario boasts several standout sequences that are all the more powerful for their chilling brevity. Emily Blunt is subtly excellent as an FBI agent caught up in a shadowy operation, and she's supported by charismatic turns from Josh Brolin and Benicio Del Toro. Like the drug war, there are no easy answers in Sicario; it's the rare sort of thriller that uses spare dialogue and informative visuals to advance its message. 

05. Phoenix

Something of an inverse Vertigo, this Hitchcockian thriller mixes old-fashioned Hollywood tropes with modern nuance to chilling effect. At a relatively trim 90 minutes, director Christian Petzold communicates vast amounts of emotional turmoil through carefully chosen details, smart visuals, and deftly executed plot developments. Nina Hoss, Petzold's muse, does extraordinary work as Nelly, a scarred concentration camp survivor investigating whether her husband sold her out to the Nazis. Petzold refuses to spell anything out, leaving the characters' true feelings open for interpretation, even through the harrowing finale. Open-ended conclusions can often come across as cop-outs, but Phoenix closes on a note of such powerful ambiguity that its openness, magically, feels complete.

04. Carol

I see your complaints that Carol is too distant or cold and present the following counterargument: nope. It's certainly a quiet and reserved story, but as directed by Todd Haynes, it's appropriately slow-burning and repressed. This is, after all, a story of two women in love in the early 50s; traditional courtship is out of the question. Beautifully filmed and performed, this delicate, sensitive romance takes its time before it starts to truly pay off. But even in the build up, there are moments of stunning subtlety. Therese (Rooney Mara) and Carol's (Cate Blanchett) first meal together is loaded with unspoken history, most memorably found in the latter's enigmatic "flung out of space" line. The gestures, facial movements, and vocal fluctuations are all deliberate without becoming overly calculated or insincere. Rather than create a naively optimistic gay romance, Haynes and screenwriter Phyllis Nagy stick to the tone of Patricia Highsmith's novel to heart-stopping effect. It may not the be the period romance people want, but it's certainly one that we need. 

03. Mad Max: Fury Road

In an age of post-Dark Knight blockbusters that strive to be capital S serious, there is something wickedly delightful about the insanity of Mad Max: Fury Road. There are feminist themes buried amid the explosions (Vagina Monologues creator Eve Ensler was even an on-set consultant), but director George Miller never wastes time trying to be didactic. The plot is as simple as they come, which leaves much more room for Miller's jaw-dropping imagination to reign supreme. Without going overboard to explain each and every aspect of the post-apocalyptic setting, he plunges us into a fully-realized world while always putting entertainment first. The action sequences are a series of escalating circus acts of vehicular carnage, all dizzyingly edited by Miller's wife Margaret Sixel. Stars Tom Hardy and especially Charlize Theron bring two very different kinds of charisma to their lead roles, crafting one of the year's most compelling partnerships. Fury and madness rarely gets pulled off this well.

02. 45 Years

Surely, I thought, there's no way the ending of Phoenix could be outdone for wrenching emotional ambiguity. And then along comes Andrew Haigh's 45 Years, which has not one, but two of the best dramatic moments of the year. This look at a marriage in crisis is deceptively simple, gradually tightening the screws until the tension bursts at the seams. Haigh's graceful, yet taut, direction keeps it all at a beautiful simmer, only letting things boil when necessary. And even when that happens, it's done with a restrained touch. Led by Tom Courtenay and Charlotte Rampling's incredible performances (the best cinematic senior duo since Amour), 45 Years is a gorgeously realized chamber drama that lingers long after its quiet stunner of a finale.

01. About Elly

Six years after its Berlin premiere, Asghar Farhadi's magnificent drama finally landed on US shores, and took its place as one of 2015's finest. Despite the stage-like nature of the story (most of which takes place at a single location), About Elly is directed with such subtle dynamism that it feels like a complete cinematic experience. Deeply layered, probing, and featuring moments of white-knuckle intensity, it's a reminder of Farhadi's tremendous gifts as a dramatist. I have a single complaint with the screenplay, although in the grand scheme of what the film accomplishes, to focus in on it seems petty. It has no sweeping vistas or epic battles, but this haunting psychological drama has an expansive impact greater than even the flashiest explosions or bear attacks. 

And now on the other end of the spectrum, here are some of 2015's less impressive offerings:

Goodnight Mommy

Goodnight Mommy does so much right. It's elegantly directed, beautifully shot and edited, and features three solid performances. If only it wasn't burdened with a screenplay that plays more like a blueprint or a first draft. The no-duh obviousness of the twist (which becomes apparent in the first 10 minutes) is just the start of the film's missed opportunities.

Chappie

There are blink-and-you'll-miss-them moments of inspiration in Chappie. Overall, they exist in a film that serves as further evidence that Neill Blomkamp (District 9) is actually a one-hit wonder. Despite earnest efforts from a handful of established names (Dev Patel, Hugh Jackman's mullet, Sigourney Weaver), the film's screenplay is a mess of styles and tones. The technical aspects are all  - expectedly - excellent, but they're in service of a film that lacks sophistication or an understanding of how to balance the story's mix of action and off-kilter comedy (or should that be "comedy"?).

Blackhat

Another victim of bad marketing. The difference here being that Michael Mann's techno thriller really doesn't have much to offer at all. A few stray moments work (like a trip through a ghostly nuclear reactor), but the film's story plods along and feels dated before it even gets going. And Mann's devotion to digital photography has never been as big of a hindrance. The imagery is full of dingy, bleary neon lights that are aggressively shoddy to look at. Worse, the talented and diverse ensemble are all stuck in thankless roles with wooden dialogue (even Viola Davis doesn't look like she cares about being invested in the material). The contrived romance between Chris Hemsworth and Tang Wei is ludicrous, and the eventual reveal of the story's villain lands with a hollow thud.

Serena

So that's why a film with Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence was quietly snuck into theaters at the beginning of the year. Susanne Bier's drama is beautifully made, but from the opening scenes, Serena rings false. Every line of dialogue feels "off," sometimes merely by the tiniest of margins. But those margins add up, and the film alternates between dragging its feet and racing through head-bangingly silly climaxes. Also, for the love of god, can we please stop casting Jennifer Lawrence, a charismatic performer, in roles that she's at least a decade too young for (this goes for you too, Joy and American Hustle)?

The Assassin

In a season 4 episode of 30Rock, Tina Fey's Liz Lemon approaches Jon Hamm's Drew Baird (technically a hallucination) and mutters, "So, so handsome. So, so stupid." That same line also works as an apt description of Hou Hsiao-Hsien's The Assassin, a punishingly dull arthouse martial arts tale. Hsiao-Hsien's films never move fast, but here the pacing goes from slow to totally inert. The visuals (from the costumes to the actors) are often staggering in their beauty, but they are so still that they're ultimately bloodless. The Assassin's long periods of minimal activity don't translate into atmosphere, and the cast are left to do little more than pose as Hsiao-Hsien guides them through a wafer-thin excuse for a plot.

Maps to the Stars

There are debates as to when this one actually reached American theaters (did it have a brief US run in 2014 or did that get cancelled at the last minute???), but either way...it's garbage. Smug, faux-edgy, toothless garbage that thinks it's pushing the envelope for showbiz satire when it's actually a few decades behind. Julianne Moore and Mia Wasikowska are enjoyable in their roles, and the film as a whole would have been better were it strictly about their relationship. The rest of the cast ranges from blank (Robert Pattinson) to hilariously awful (thank you, David Cronenberg, for giving us the worst performance of Olivia Williams' career). Maybe it's time for Cronenberg to stop trying his hand at a drama or satire and just shuffle on back to the body-horror territory of The Fly and Videodrome.

But there's one that trumps them all....

Me and Earl and the Dying Girl

Some day a cleansing fire will wipe out every copy of the 2015 Sundance Grand Jury Prize winner. Until then, let's remember Alfonso Gomez-Rejon's film the way it deserves to be remembered: as an insipid, kind of racist, nauseatingly quirky ode to white male mediocrity. Worst of all is that the script addresses the audience by acknowledging certain cliches. It tries to be self aware, but forgets to do anything about its cliches. There's no subversion, only bland meta-commentary used as some sort of shield against criticism. The closest thing this film has to a positive trait is Olivia Cooke as the titular dying girl. The whole story should have been about her. Instead, she's used as a plot device to help Thomas Mann's punchable protagonist become marginally less awful and self-pitying. What a journey. I hate you, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, and I hope you roast in hell.