Sunday, May 27, 2012

Cannes 2012: Closing Ceremony Predictions

 With the 2012 Cannes Film Festival in its final hours, it's time to make some predictions about the festivals closing ceremony awards, including the uber prestigious Palme D'Or. Predicting the winners of Cannes is always trickier than your typical awards show. For one, you're trying to guess the opinions of the Jury, a Jury that is different every year, and therefore has no precedents to go off of. Then there's that tricky rule that states that film's can only receive one award (the rule may no longer be in place; I'm not sure). It eliminates the possibility of a sweep, but it also makes predictions that much more difficult, because it's hard to determine which aspect of a film the Jury will go for. And as much as the critics would seem to be a good indicator, they're simply not. They have their favorites, and the Jury will have its favorites. Some might align, but it's never safe to bet that the critical majority and the Jury will see eye to eye. With that said, here's a look at who/what could win, as well as my choices for who/what should win, all while keeping with that irritating one-award-per-film rule.

Palme D'Or - Amour
I'm directly contradicting what I said above, but I wouldn't be too surprised if the biggest critical favorite also captured the Jury as well. Amour is a devastating, masterful work, and it lacks the bizarro quality of a more divisive choice like Holy Motors. The only thing standing in its way? Michael Haneke's The White Ribbon won the Palme in 2009. Not that winning more than one Palme is impossible, but for someone to win it twice after only a three year gap? Not terribly common. 
Other Possibilities: Holy Motors, Rust and Bone, Mud (last minute safe pick?), Beyond the Hills

Actor - Jean Louis-Trintignant, Amour
Obviously, the choice would negate the film's chances at the Palme, but ultimately this seems more likely. It's Trintignant's first film in a decade, it could be his last, and he's outstanding in it. A final chance for the festival to honor a legend who's still in top form.
Other Possibilities: Matthias Schoenaerts (Rust and Bone), Denis Lavant (Holy Motors), Aniello Arena (Reality), Mads Mikkelson (The Hunt)

Actress - Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
There remains a chance that this could go to Amour's Emmanuelle Riva or Nicole Kidman's sensationalized turn in The Paperboy, but more and more it's looking like this will be her year, and Rust and Bone's best shot at a Cannes prize. She's never been in competition in Cannes, yet she's won major awards at the Oscars, BAFTAs, and France's Cesar Awards. 
Other Possibilities: Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Margarethe Tiesel (Paradise Love)

Screenplay - Moonrise Kingdom
Certainly the prediction I feel least solid about. This seems like the type of film that will get passed over everywhere else, but would jump at the chance to throw a prize for writing Anderson's way. 

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