The day has come: my predictions for the 81st Academy Awards

Well, this is it; another award season is about to come to a close in a spectacular gathering of stars. This season has had plenty of surprises, some good, (Mickey Rourke's "return" to the big screen), some bad, (Benjamin Button collapsing under the hype, Australia being too divisive), and the unexpected (Slumdog Millionaire moving from Toronto Festival crowd pleaser to Best Picture Frontrunner). So finally, after weeks of critics awards, precursors, and guild awards, we'll finally find out who's going home a winner, and who will have to try again next year.


Best Picture:

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire or Benjamin Button
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Horse: Milk or The Reader (never underestimate the Weinstein's)
No Chance in Hell: Frost/Nixon

Best Director:

Will Win: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Danny Boyle
The Dark Horse: Stephen Daldry - The Reader
No Chance in Hell: Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon

Best Actor:

Will Win: Mickey Rourke or Sean Penn
Should Win: Frank Langella
The Dark Horse: Frank Langella
No Chance in Hell: Richard Jenkins

Best Actress:

Will Win: Kate Winslet - The Reader (she'll finally win) or Meryl Streep - Doubt (she'll finally get her third statue).
Should Win: Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
The Dark Horse: Melissa Leo - Frozen River
No Chance in Hell: Angelina Jolie - Changeling

Best Supporting Actor:

Will Win: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Should Win: Heath Ledger
The Dark Horse: Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder or Josh Brolin - Milk
No Chance in Hell: Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt or Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actress:

Will Win: a toss-up between Penelope Cruz, Marisa Tomei, and Viola Davis
Should Win: Penelope Cruz
The Dark Horse: Amy Adams - Doubt
No Chance in Hell: Taraji P. Henson - Benjamin Button (if she wins, I will throw something at the TV screen)

Best Original Screenplay:

Will Win: WALL-E or Milk
Should Win: In Bruges
The Dark Horse: In Bruges
No Chance in Hell Happy Go Lucky and Frozen River

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button, or Doubt
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Horse: The Reader
No Chance in Hell: Frost/Nixon

Best Cinematography:

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Horse: Benjamin Button
No Chance in Hell: Milk, Changeling

Best Editing:

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire or The Dark Knight
Should Win: The Dark Knight
The Dark Horse: Benjamin Button
No Chance in Hell: Milk, Frost Nixon