State of the Race: The Guild Awards

With last night's SAG awards out of the way, the Oscar race is finally becoming a little clearer. After months and months of uncertainty, clear frontrunners are emerging, and the race is really taking shape. That said, there's still room for a few surprises on Oscar night, which is always welcome. Which is even more impressive now that Hollywood's three big guilds have handed out their awards for 2011. No matter how many critics prizes a film takes, in the end its industry support that matters. Look no further than The Social Network/The King's Speech for a classic example of a critical favorite eventually trumped by a film that hit it off big time with the industry. And in a year where so much is uncertain, we can at least try to speculate where AMPAS' votes will go, though unlike last year nothing is quite set in stone.

Best Picture

Frontrunner: The Artist

The Help may have picked up the SAG's top prize, but that's for ensemble, not picture (though SAG sometimes votes as if it is). Both the PGA and the DGA have gone to The Artist, which has emerged from the field of 9 contenders as the one with the best chance. The Descendants, Hugo, The Help, and even The Tree of Life all have their ardent supporters, but ultimately, this is The Artist's to lose.

Best Director

Frontrunner: Michel Hazanvicius - The Artist

The film certainly stands out among the crowd as a modern-day silent, and seeing as AMPAS generally tends to lump picture and director together, expect Hazanvicius to be swept along with his film.

Best Actor

Frontrunner: George Clooney - The Descendants

Though his loss last night to Dujardin was a blow to his momentum, Clooney remains the logical pick for the win, even though Dujardin is rapidly closing in on his lead. Clearly the actors love him, and the industry seems to love The Artist, so Dujardin could ultimately prove victorious. At the moment, however, Clooney's golden boy status could still be enough to keep him in first place.

Best Actress

Frontrunner: Viola Davis - The Help

Had Meryl Streep won the SAG award last night, I would have been ready to declare her third Oscar win all sewn up. But SAG went with Davis, whose film is clearly much more popular. Streep may have claimed the Globe, but Davis has the more popular film and the SAG momentum on her side.

Best Supporting Actor

Frontrunner: Christopher Plummer - Beginners

Probably the acting race's only lock, and he's only emerged recently. With back-to-back wins from the Globes and SAG, and the complete drop-out of Albert Brooks' campaign, Plummer is poised for an easy (though still very deserved) victory.

Best Supporting Actress

Frontrunner: Octavia Spencer - The Help

Though she's not quite the lock that Plummer is, she's pretty damn close. There's still room for co-star Jessica Chastain to sneak in and win here, but ultimately her nomination will prove to be her reward for her break-out year. Not a sure thing, but at the end of the day, this is Spencer's to lose.

That's all for now. More to come after the BAFTA awards next month, and then a final round of predictions just before Oscar night. We're almost at the end!

2011 DGA Nominations: And the race gets weirder...

As many critics awards as their are across the nation, at the end of the day it's really the guild awards that act as better indicators of who's winning AMPAS' favor, especially in a year as uncertain as 2011. We certainly saw that last year when The Social Network won just about everything under the sun, until The King's Speech trounced it at the guild awards and on Oscar night. The SAG, PGA, and WGA have all announced their nominees, leaving only the Director's Guild. And with their nominees, they've thrown a wrench into some Oscar campaigns, while giving others a boost.

The Nominees:

Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris

David Fincher - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Michel Hazanvicius - The Artist

Alexander Payne - The Descendants

Martin Scorcese - Hugo

Who got a boost: The biggest winner after today has to be Fincher and Dragon Tattoo as a whole. Ever since the first screenings, the film was being labeled as one that would make little to no contribution to the awards race. In the past few weeks the film has scored with the PGA and WGA, and the DGA nod is just icing on the cake. For the film to miss out on a Best Picture nomination and/or Best Director nomination is becoming increasingly unlikely. Star Rooney Mara may have missed with the SAG, but could still end up as a surprise Best Actress nominee, as one of many nominations the film looks likely to score now. So even though Dragon Tattoo isn't necessarily a threat to win the top prize, at the very least it can consider itself a strong contender, which is quite to comeback considering all of the doubters.

Then there's Woody Allen and Alexander Payne. Payne's film has generally stood a better shot, but there was always the chance that he would get pushed out by contenders with "bigger" films. After today, though, he's become even more of a sure thing, though the actual win is doubtful. The same goes for Allen, who could score his first Best Director nomination since Bullets Over Broadway (1994). If either of these two men takes the DGA prize, however, it will only serve to further upset the Best Director race.

Who took a hit: Unlike Woody Allen, whose film also launched in early summer, Terrence Malick was allowed any love from the DGA, or any major guild for that matter. Considering the divisive nature of Malick's film, however, it's not entirely surprising. Drive's Nicholas Winding-Refn and War Horse's Steven Spielberg, however, should probably not get their hopes up for the remainder of awards season. I'm sure Refn had a fan base within the DGA for Drive, but at the end of the day the voters favored established names (well, aside from Spielberg). Of course, there's always room for surprises come Nomination morning, but knowing the DGA's close alignment with the Academy, I suspect the chances for the above-mentioned trio are at long last dead. Such a shame...at least for the first two. War Horse has, to be honest, felt like nothing but an afterthought and an obligation rather than a legitimate contender.

Tom Hooper wins the DGA...

At last night's DGA awards, The King's Speech's Tom Hooper took home the guild's best director award, giving this awards season a whole new sense of uncertainty. The DGA has a stellar track record of matching up with the Oscars, which could be bad news for David Fincher and The Social Network. Are we finally heading for the first major Oscar Best Picture upset since Crash?

For months, Hooper's film was talked about as the sort of old-fashioned type of work that would easily score a bucket-load of nominations, but walk away with few trophies come Oscar night. But in the past few weeks all of that has started to change. Sure, The Social Network scored the Golden Globe, but if you take a look at the GG's for the past few years, it's not the best sign. Recent Globe BP-Drama winners include Avatar, Slumdog Millionaire, Atonement, Babel, Brokeback Mountain, The Aviator, only one of which won best picture (Slumdog).

And even though The Social Network completely dominated the tidal wave of critics awards like The Hurt Locker, Slumdog, and No Country for Old Men, it didn't lead the way with Oscar nominations (THL and NCFOM were tied and Slumdog was #2 in its year). The Social Network score 8 nominations, but Andrew Garfield was missing in Supporting Actor and The King's Speech scored an astounding 12 nominations, which vaults it into a select group of nominated films. Hooper's DGA win either means that The King's Speech has Best Picture and Director locked up, or that this will be only the 7th time that the DGA and AMPAS have differed. Either way, expect February 27th to be a bloodbath between Speech and Social, with Black Swan, The Fighter, and Inception claiming the left overs.

Director's Guild of America Nominations

Possibly one of the most important indicators of which way the Oscars will swing (don't ask me; ask them), the DGA awards have an eerily strong track record of matching up with AMPAS' choice for Best Director. In over seven decades of existence, the DGA's winner (to be announced on Jan. 29th) has matched up with AMPAS save for 6 years, the most recent of which was in 2002. So unless 2010 is going to be a year for an upset, here's a look at the likely nominees for Best Director, one of whom will likely win on February 27th:

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

David Fincher, The Social Network

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Christopher Nolan, Inception

David O. Russell, The Fighter

Nothing really surprising in this line-up, although part of me thought that O. Russell or Hooper might get snubbed in place of someone like the Coens. As for the win, Fincher pretty much has this locked up based on how awards season has gone so far. Then again, 2010 could go the route of 2009, with the real front-runners not emerging until the televised awards shows like this Sunday's Golden Globes, which was where Sandra Bullock began her path to Oscar glory.

She WON!!!

I really hope this doesn't somehow jinx Bigelow or the film's Oscar chances (DGA winners don't have the best track record as far as matching Best Picture winners). If the Academy follows through, (besides the assured nominations) not only will it be a huge triumph for Bigelow herself, but for women directors everywhere. A lot of people complain that Sofia Coppola should have been the first woman to win (for Lost in Translation), but to me Bigelow's film is on such a different level, and would so wholly deserve to be given the label of "best motion picture of 2009", that for her to possibly double the honor by becoming the first female best director winner would only make the victory sweeter (that, and I've never found Lost in Translation to be anything more than "good"). Congratulations to Ms. Bigelow and her extraordinary film, as well as the other DGA winners (it's about time ABC's hilarious "Modern Family" won something).

Source: Reuters/Yahoo Movies

LOS ANGELES - Kathryn Bigelow and "The Hurt Locker" became official awards-season front-runners Saturday after Bigelow won the top prize from the Directors Guild of America.

The 58-year-old filmmaker is the first woman to win the guild's top honor, which positions her and the film as shoe-ins for the Academy Awards. The DGA boasts that its winner has gone on to win the Oscar all but six times since 1948.

"This is the most incredible moment of my life," Bigelow said backstage. She downplayed her gender, saying, "I suppose I like to think of myself as a filmmaker."

Still, she was the only nominated director who earned accolades for her physique as well as her filmmaking. Bigelow was up against Quentin Tarantino for "Inglourious Basterds," Jason Reitman for "Up in the Air," Lee Daniels for "Precious" and her ex-husband James Cameron for "Avatar."

"Hurt Locker" star Jeremy Renner called Bigelow "a warrior, my champion and the most fortunate actor's director."

Tarantino praised her as "queen of directors." He said his fellow nominees have been spending so much time together, they have become "like a superstar rock band and we're going to go on tour together."

Clutching a shiny medallion as a souvenir of his DGA nomination, Tarantino said, "I don't give a (expletive) who wins, I am so happy to have this."

Daniels said the nominated directors, who have seen each other regularly throughout Hollywood's awards season, are "like a support group" for one another.

"We have each other's backs," he said.

He told Bigelow, "You are bold. You are brave. You are gutsy."

Reitman told the winning director that he grew up watching her films.

"You are more than a great director, you are one of the greats," he said. "I'm in awe of you, too."

Cameron praised his competitors as "truly excellent and brilliant filmmakers."

Bigelow said just being nominated for the Directors Guild honor is "kind of the pinnacle for the already wild ride 'The Hurt Locker' has put me on."

The four-hour affair at the Hyatt Regency Century Plaza hotel drew a spate of celebrities, including Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt, Jodie Foster, Jon Cryer, Cheryl Hines and Jason Bateman. All but Jolie served as presenters during Saturday's ceremony.

Carl Reiner hosted the event recognizing achievements in directing, as he has for 22 years.

"Modern Family" won the top honor for television comedy for its pilot, directed by Jason Winer.

"I want to thank the DGA for validating the Napoleon complex I've had ever since I was a smaller boy," the diminutive director said.

The drama prize went to "Mad Men" and director Lesli Linka Glatter. Ross Katz was honored for the HBO movie "Taking Chance." Louie Psihoyos' film "The Cove" won the documentary award.

"The film plays like a prequel to 'Avatar,' only it's real and set in the present," Psihoyos said.

Cher presented Norman Jewison with the guild's Lifetime Achievement Award for his career in film.

"The studio heads maybe have all the power, but we've got the glory," he said. "And when you receive the lifetime achievement award like this, it makes you very nervous, like maybe you're going to fall off the perch or something."

The 83-year-old filmmaker accepted the award surrounded by his family, including his four grandchildren.

Cher said she would have gone to the moon to present Jewison with the honor.

"He has changed my life," said Cher, who starred in "Moonstruck," Jewison's 1987 hit. "I love him so much."

Roger Goodman was presented the guild's lifetime achievement award in news direction. Disney chief Robert Iger and Warner Bros. chief Barry Meyer were granted honorary life memberships in the guild.

Among other guild winners:

• Reality programming: Craig Borders, "Hong Kong Bridge."

• Children's programs: Allison Liddi-Brown, "Princess Protection Program."

• Daytime serials: Christopher Goutman, "As the World Turns: Once Upon a Time."

• Commercials: Tom Kuntz.

Among Hollywood's many honors leading up to the Academy Awards, the Directors Guild prizes have one of the best track records for predicting eventual Oscar winners.

Academy Award nominations will be announced Tuesday.

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On the Net:

http://www.dga.org