Now that the year is, month-wise, halfway over, it's that very special time of year where I, like much of the internet, slowly begin inching towards Awards Season 2010 even though it won't really start for almost three more months. It's never a safe bet to make predictions so far out, and by mid-October I'll probably look back on these and laugh/roll my eyes/cry. This time, however, I'm going to only do one or two categories per post, so I can talk a little about why I have certain films/performances down, instead of just one long-ass post of nothing but text (OMG LOOK, PICTURES). So, what are the contenders to be The Hurt Locker's successor? Here's a look at what, as of now, looks like it has a decent shot....
Best Picture:
1. Tree of Life
- Why: Another chance to nominate/reward Terrence Malick.
- Why: A mix of the intimate and the epic
- Why: Seasoned actors (Pitt, Penn) and buzzed about newcomers (Jessica Chastain)
- Why Not: Too far outside of AMPAS' comfort zone(?)
- Why Not: Apparition undergoing internal problems; could cause delays
2. Hereafter
- Why: Clint Eastwood, supernatural drama, acclaimed cast
- Why Not: Eastwood hasn't had a Best Picture/Director nominee since Letters from Iwo Jima
3. Miral
- Why: It has the Weinsteins' full backing behind it
- Why: Relevant story/issues (Israel/Palestine conflict)
- Why Not: The Weinsteins also gave their full backing to Nine
4. Conviction
- Why: The "Blind Side" nominee that gets in due to support for a performance/performances
- Why: Powerful true story angle
- Why Not: Could be terrible, or simply not popular enough for AMPAS to care.
5. Biutiful
- Why: Inarritu's first film since Babel (2006), which they went crazy over
- Why Not: It may not go over as well here as it did in Europe
- Why Not: The only things of interest to AMPAS might be Bardem and the techs
6. Toy Story 3
- Why: With 10 slots, AMPAS is finally ready to embrace Pixar at the top
- Why: Likely to end up one of the best reviewed and highest grossing films of 2010
- Why Not: AMPAS falls in love with too many other live-action films
7. The Way Back
- Why: Oscar redemption for Peter Weir (Das Boot)
- Why: World War II/epic journey subject matter
- Why Not: It could not be good enough and go the Defiance route
8. Somewhere
- Why: Sofia Coppola treading territory similar to Lost in Translation
- Why: It's about people in show business
- Why Not: Could be another Marie Antoinette
9. The King's Speech
- Why: The period piece slot
- Why: Lots of talented British and Australian talent (Firth, Rush, Bonham-Carter)
- Why Not: Might only be worth it for the performances
10. Inception
- Why: With 10 slots, a chance to finally reward Christopher Nolan
- Why: If it's a commercial and critical hit, it will stand out in an otherwise hugely underwhelming summer (along with Toy Story)
- Why: It's a (potential) blockbuster, but this time no one is wearing a cape
- Why Not: The mind-warping narrative could hurt box office and cause AMPAS to look the other way
Other Candidates (in no order): Blue Valentine, Black Swan, The Fighter, Get Low, The Town, The Kids Are All Right, Another Year, The Social Network, True Grit, Rabbit Hole, The American, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Winter's Bone
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